3 Stock Market Analysts to Pay Attention to When Navigating Investing and Sensationalist Forecasts
Many clients and prospects of OHFG have asked, “after watching your investment content for the last few years, Chris, you are quite up front that you don’t find much value in the vast majority of economists, politicians, strategists, and TV personalities “takes” on the economy and markets versus actually running investment savings for your clients. Whose research do you find valuable or insightful that we might want to look out for. This week’s episode is the “stock markets, technically speaking”.
Coming largely from behemoth institutional money management backgrounds, we use to have access to pretty much every piece of sell-side research one could ask for including macro, micro, sector, single stock, and derivative research. Nowadays, selling market research is a billion-dollar industry in its own right. However, as a much smaller RIA, OHFG like most others are resource constrained so we can’t just subscribe to everything. However, I want to point investors to three resources that our team finds helpful for laying out probable forward moves in the markets. None of these resources appear weekly or daily on CNBC as a “CNBC contributor”, which is code for we are getting paid or paying CNBC. None are labelled “chart master” or the King of Bonds as a way to hype their opinions to others.
All three of these strategists have been consistently right the last 5 years. They have been right or wrong, but flexible and quick enough to reverse course and be value added when they recognize their prior views were wrong. The first one is a market cycle historian, the second a combination cycle historian and technician, and the third, a straight up technician and one of the funniest personalities working in an otherwise dull and personality free industry.
One of these providers is a one-time annual fee, one is research associated with a larger bank and brokerage firm that is free when you are a client of the bank and brokerage firm, and the third is an institutional strategist that we keep our eyes peeled on Linked in and other professional websites to see what he’s saying.
Let’s start with the stock market historian, Larry Williams. Here’s a link to his website, “I really Trade” and his 2024 Forecast fee for service access. Yes, we have been subscribers to his service. No, we have never gotten paid to promote him or his service we are not currently getting paid to promote him. https://www.ireallytrade.com/forecasts/
Larry is a reoccurring guest on Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money” CNBC show appearing about 5-6 times a year.Williams has created numerous market cycle timing indicators, including Williams %R, Ultimate Oscillator, Commitment Of Traders indices, accumulation/distribution indicators, cycle forecasts, market sentiment, and value measurements for commodity prices. Williams won the 1987 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading from the Robbins Trading Company. Here is a link to his work at the height of the Covid 19 correction, on March 17, 2020, calling for a end to the bear market and coming significant rally. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztk3Ti-4yO4
Contrary to the annual, “a market crash is coming” crowd, or the purveyors of “end of the world is upon us”, or the consistently wrong for 14 years and counting “it’s a bubble” market newsletter writers, Larry’s work is unemotional and based on historical data and re-occurring human behavior in financial markets. Even if you don’t subscribe to his 2024 forecast, keep your ears open for an TV segment or new videos he may release.
The second Strategist I absolutely love to follow, is Steve Suttmeier, whose title is Technical Research Strategist at BAC Securities, better known as Merrill Lynch to older investors. Steve’s work is free for brokerage customers at BAC and while BAC has many fantastic research products and analysts, I find his the most compelling. Steve is a combination market historian and straight down the fairway market technician.
The historian in him uses the mass resources of the bank to crunch historical data on the markets be it, bull markets, bear markets, economic cycles, investor sentiment cycles, market volatility cycles, and presidential election cycles. He releases this data in a forward timely manner to help investors before events happen versus reporting on them after the fact. Many of the time series I have referenced over the last 5 years have come largely from Steve’s team data. Steve also has traditional chart technician skills and can present a view of the market that keeps it simple, as the saying a “Picture is worth a thousand words” is one of a technician’s best friends. That phrase and the saying, “Price is truth” simply summarize the complicated world of being a CMT. Certified Market Technician.
Finally, my third strategist who is a must follow if one can find his research, which is definitely difficult due to it being institutional, is a pure stock market technician. That’s Rich Ross, chief technician at Evercore ISI. A few things make Rich’s work unique. First, he has been? Right for quite some time. Second, he has been bullish on technology stocks and the markets since late 2022 and rightly so. Thirdly, while other Evercore strategists have wavered back and forth, or other more highly promoted technicians, like the “Chartmaster” on CNBC have been consistently wrong and bearish now for years, Rich has stuck by what his charts are saying and stayed bullish, no flip flopping. And finally, and Rich is one of the whitiest, driest, and funniest strategists I have come across in 30 years.
For example, here is Rich’s recent chart on the horribly performing Chinese stock market which has been in a bear market at least for 2 years absolute and on a relative basis since June of 2008.
As the Hang Seng market approached its 2022 lows, where it was “make or break time” for the index, the Chinese government launched a massive stimulus program trying to stimulate the economy and shore up waning investor interest. They did so almost EXACTLY as their market hit the same level as 2 years ago which in technical jargon is where it needed to make a “Double Bottom” to have any hope of rallying. Richs headline? The Hang Seng, The PBOC has a Bloomberg” makes light of the fact that the politicians in China are most likely sitting watching the same chart and price action as everyone else and decided to try to make a stand to defend their markets from further collapse.
I do want to give props to two other services and technicians I follow who are definitely unique and value added. The First is Rob Sluymer, Chief Technician at RBC Bank and the second is Avi Gilbert who leads the Elliot Wave Trader website. Both are unique in their service and approach to the markets. If you have time or can get hold of their research, check them out.
That’s it for this week folks, Technically Speaking and a shout out to Larry Williams, Steve Suttmeier, and Rich Ross for their research, downplaying emotion, and in Ross’s case, keeping it light and funny. We all know the investment business needs a laugh or two every once and a while.
Thank you for taking the time to watch and have a blessed week and a fantastic new year.
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CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®
Chief Investment Officer, Financial Advisor
Chris is a seasoned investment professional with over 25 years of experience working with some of the most successful money management firms in the world. Chris has made it a point in his career to adapt as the market landscape changes, seeking to utilize the appropriate investment strategy for a given market environment. His transition from managing billions of dollars at the institutional level to helping individuals and families retire is guided by a desire to see first-hand the impact he is making in the lives of clients at Oak Harvest.