2023: Second Half Market Outlook
As for equities in the second half of 2023? What’s our Oak Harvest team thinking? For now, our team expects the gains we expected and have seen in the first half to slow and likely reverse and give back some of the year-to-date gains over the next few months in a very normal fashion. Our volatility model and history both point to a pullback in the 4-5% range. This pullback could then be followed by a decent yearend rally measured in percentage terms toward, but just short of new all-time highs, call it 4725.
2023: First Half Market Outlook
The title of our first half 2023 outlook? Return to the “Old Normal”. What do I mean by this? I mean investors should expect both the economy and stock markets to return to more normal cycles after close to 12 years of global Central Bank intervention. Since 2010, most global central banks experimented with the idea of running negative real interest rates in an effort to stimulate demand. At the end of 2020 over 18 trillion in debt globally traded with negative yields.
2022: Second Half Market Outlook
First things first. We have had a big, big rally in stocks over the last six weeks. We thought this was likely back in late June and early July. We published our thoughts with our July 1st video, “Opportunity Knocks early.” However, from here, the indicators we watch say we should expect a couple of months of waffling before the market decides its true intention, which is potentially upward.
2022: First Half Market Outlook
For the first half of 2021, our title was “You ain’t seen nothing yet-one buy in the 1st quarter” and our second half outlook was titled “Let the Good times roll”. I will only quote a single sentence from that piece. And that was this line written 6 months ago, “If pressed we see a seasonally strong 4th quarter 2021 and 1st quarter 2022 time period (that) can lift the S&P500 over 4800-4850 and could approach 5000 in a blowoff in January of 2022. That was written back in June. No revisionist histories. No inching targets upward every month. That’s what our data said way back then.
2021: Second Half Market Outlook
Nearing the final weeks of the first half of 2021, the S&P 500 sits near 4225, slightly exceeding our “Sell Tax Day and go away; you’ll miss largely nothing for the next few months,” view we expressed in April via our podcast. The S&P500 closed at 4185 on Friday, April 16th. So for all the worries and alarmist stories on inflation or commodity shortages, the market is pretty close to net flat the last 2 months. In our view: welcome to a normal 2nd quarter.
2021: First Half Market Outlook
Nearing the final weeks of 2020, the SP500 sits near 3725, within spitting distance of our 3800 year-end target that we have discussed since early May. We will stick to thex first half of 2021 in this piece and recap 2020 in a few weeks, once the year is finalized.
2020: Second Half Outlook
At the end of the 1st half of 2020, the S&P 500 stood at 3050. This was up 3.7% year over year, down -5.5% year to date and down -10.1% from the February 19th all-time high in the S&P 500. What happened in the first half? Well the path to 3050 on the S&P 500 was not quite the one we laid out back in late December 2019 in our first half 2020 outlook. Neither Oak Harvest, nor any other investment advisor, foresaw the one thing that mattered after late February. Of course, that one thing was the out-of-left field Covid-19 virus global pandemic. The chaos caused by the pandemic resulted in the fastest and deepest decline both in global economic growth, and global stock markets ever. The S&P 500 peaked at 3392 on February 19th and reached a low of 2192 on March 23rd.
2020: First Half Outlook
On January 4th, 2019 the S&P500 stood at 2475. Most advisors were urging caution and a great deal of the financial press was warning of impending crashes and coming recessions. On that day, our team at Oak Harvest Financial Group first published our first half 2019 outlook entitled “Put On The Rally Caps”. It read as follows, “Given the sharp rise in stock market volatility to a reading over 35 on the VIX index and subsequent dramatic fall in stocks in the 4th quarter of 2018, we are highly optimistic about stock returns in 2019. We believe the market can fully recover and hit new all-time highs by year end 2019! Call it S&P500 3000 optimistically." At that time the S&P500 was pinned at 2475. In retrospect, we were too conservative and too low in our positive outlook. However, we would rather err on the side of caution rather than on one of exuberance.
2019: Second Half Outlook
Broadly speaking, I am calling our second half 2019 outlook, “Goldilocks Returns: and She Kicks the Three Bears Out of the Party”. You can listen to the special two-part podcast release of our second half outlook at the links above. What follows in this, the official release of our outlook, is a “transcript” of those podcasts.
2019: First Half Outlook
Given the sharp rise in stock market volatility to a reading over 35 on the Vix index and subsequent dramatic fall in stocks in the 4th quarter of 2018, we are highly optimistic about stock returns in 2019. We believe the market can fully recover and hit new all-time highs by year end 2019! Call it SP500 3000 optimistically. We cover our first half outlook in this report.