Our Song Remains the Same: Stock Market Update, Friday November 7, 2025

I was born in 1965, love classic rock and most 70’s and 80’s rock bands, but theres a special place in my heart for Led Zeppelin.  The icon rock band led by Robert Plant, Jimmy Page, John Bonham, and John Paul Jones.  No not the retired legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones, who we’ve called out many times the last 5 years for being chronically misguided in the direction and taming of his stock market calls.

Paul Tudor Jones, has said that we are in late 1999 replicating the near end of the Dot.com bubble.  My view, I doubt that’s the case. I doubt we are in the 9^th inning as he suggested, and the party is good enough to hang around but one should look to quickly exit.  We covered this material multiple times over the past 6 months.

Lately there has been quite a lot of negative talk about the market being overbought and breadth deteriorating, or many bears discussing a “dire”, their term, reduction in bank liquidity. Every few week the bears have tried to latch onto these and other so called “critical” topics to explain why the “end is near” for this bull market and V-bottom rally.  Even though I cant find any of them who said buy, 7 months ago at 5100 on the S&P500 during the Trump Tariff tantrum.  This rally has left most bears and many hesitant investors “dazed and confused”.  Our team has been here since mid-April with a ”whole lotta love” for our clients believing in the rally as it has climbed a venerable “stair way to heaven” to 6850 into the end of October.

Up here, bears are trying to convince you that it’s a “misty mountain top” in the market, and while our work does suggest there can be more turbulence in November than in the last 6 months, with the possibility of retesting both the 50 rising 50 day and 100 days moving averages, “Our song remains the same “ at OHFG.  It’s been a V-bottom since early April in a bull market, and V-bottoms historically don’t give investors much of a buy opportunity before month 10^th or 11.  That the final “celebration Day” in this glorious up move historically wouldn’t come until we are higher into 1q26, call it early February at 7200 or higher.

We’ve laid this target and timing out multiple times over the last 6 months, and many called it unrealistic for months.  At 6850ish? It still seems like the Markets destiny based on previous data.  Even now, with the markets trading above its 50day mva for over 125 days, bears are loud, and many investors remain skeptical and hesitant. Just look at recent bearish AAII sentiment numbers.

Bears decry we are overbought; however the data and history say overbought can stay overbought for a longer time and is a indicator of market strength not weakness.  Here’s the historical data on the rarity of the S&P500 trading above its 50day mva for 125days consecutively.  Historically, 9 out of 10 times this has happened the market had positive returns the next 3 months with the average being a 5.6% return.  Add 5.6% to 6840, our closing S&P500 price when this was written and you get?  Yes, 7200 in early February 2026.

For now, regardless of what might be a November of chop, investors, “our song remains the same” and we still have a “whole lotta love” for the overall S&P500 and stocks into year end and early 2026.

Know that regardless of the path for the economy and financial markets in the next few months, the investment team at OHFG will be here manning the ship and adjusting our models and long/short, hedged equity fund where we can.

Until next week, have a blessed weekend and know that the OHFG team is doing what we can to plan for you and your family’s future regardless of what stage you are at in your career or retirement.

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