Keep Your Eyes on The Prize: Stock Talk Update, Friday May 1, 2026

Today, we want to bring you back to what drives stock prices over time… EARNINGS.

Not headlines. Not geopolitics. Not Oil, not even the Federal Reserve. EARNINGS. All of the reference data here is available for free on FactSet’s website.  They have been one of the best sources for decades of earnings data.

Stock Prices follow earnings over time and right now earnings are not only rising, but they are also accelerating.

Right now, corporate America is still delivering for shareholders. Let’s see where and how.

1. EARNINGS SCORECARD – STRONG AND GETTING STRONGER

This video was filmed right before mid-weeks S&P500 earnings tsunami and at that point for Q1 2026, with 28% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 84% of S&P 500 reported a positive EPS surprise and 81% of S&P 500 companies reported a positive revenue upside.

Once again, those are big numbers. 84% of companies beating earnings and 81% beating revenue

Earnings surprises averaged +12.3% and S&P 500 EPS growth +15.1% which is its 6th straight double-digit quarter

Bottom line: This is a strong revenue and earnings economic cycle even if the reported government GDP numbers don’t look huge.

 

2. PROFIT MARGINS are at RECORD LEVELS, which is a good thing for shareholders. Net margins 13.4% – highest in 15+ years

Technology margins are near 29% even with the huge and accelerating AI spending. Margins are trending up still.

Bottom line: Companies are becoming more efficient. Doing more with less. We might not like this as someone looking for a new job out of college, or worse yet someone just laid off from a Tech job, but as a shareholder, we love this trend.

3. SECTOR LEADERSHIP, where’s the strength?

Leaders: Technology +46%, Materials +33%, Financials ~20%, Industrials mid-teens

Laggards: Energy -14%, Health Care -9%

This is still an AI + industrial capex cycle underneath the surface.

Bottom line: Sector Leadership is strong, generally concentrated in growth and cyclical areas of the economy. The negative sign in the energy sector might surprise many, but it is most likely because most energy firms’ earnings revisions lag the commodity price by a quarter or two.

4. OUTLOOK – ACCELERATION AHEAD

First off, I will never claim that these S&P 500 earnings estimates will be both accurate and precise as we progress through 2026. However, the markets are most concerned about direction and magnitude. Are things getting better or worse? At a faster or slower rate?

For the first quarter, S&P 500 companies are reporting year-over-year growth in earnings of 15.1% and year-over-year growth in revenues of 10.3%.

For Q2 2026, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 20.6% and revenue growth of 10.7%.

For Q3 2026, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 22.7% and revenue growth of 9.5%.

For Q4 2026, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 20.4% and revenue growth of 9.1%. 1-3 qtr. acceleration in revenue and EPS. And Full year of over 18.5% growth

Bottom line: Both revenue and EPS Growth are accelerating in 1-3^rd quarters 2026.

 

CLOSING

We know it’s tough to do in turbulent geopolitical times, but investors, it’s best to stay focused on what matters most to stocks, over time. What’s that? its earnings and earnings growth rates and they aren’t just important… they’re everything over the long term.

For now, stay disciplined and stay diversified. And focus on what’s real, not just what’s exciting. Whether your priority is growth, income, or a combination of both, the OHFG team is here to help you plan for your family’s financial future, no matter where you are in your career or retirement journey.

Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free visit: https://click2retire.com/lets-connect