Go Time: Stock Talk Update, Friday March 13, 2026

Is the market finally ready to move again?

After months of volatility, geopolitical headlines, and sideways trading, many investors are asking the question: What comes next for stocks?

At Oak Harvest, our 2026 outlook was titled “It’s Harder Being a Bull Rider in Some Years.” In that report, we outlined two headwinds and two tailwinds for stocks in 2026.

Now that we’re a few months into 2026, it’s worth asking the question: How many of those themes are actually playing out?

The first headwind we discussed for 1h2026, a rise in inflation expectations early in the year. Viewers, please go check the recording of our market summit outlook highlights if you doubt us.

Now, did we predict an invasion involving Iran? Of course not. But what we forecast unfold a sharp rise in inflation breakeven expectations, right in the timeframe we highlighted.

Take a look at the chart.

Here’s the 1-year breakeven inflation chart.

You can see the move higher by the bond market. Inflation expectations have moved up and to the right, however the pattern is now showing what looks like a very normal seasonal peak around the second or third week of March.

So from a market narrative perspective, the inflation fear box has already been checked. That development has played out as our team expected.

Now let’s move to the second headwind we outlined for the year. 2026 is a second-year Presidential cycle year. Historically, midterm election years tend to deliver positive returns overall, but they often come with higher volatility and more exaggerated seasonal swings. And that’s what we’ve started to see.

Let’s look at the chart.

Here’s the VIX index, which many investors use as a proxy for stock market volatility, covering the period from the fourth quarter of 2025 into the first quarter of 2026.

During the recent Iran war headlines, the VIX briefly jumped from around 15 to over 30, essentially doubling from its previous levels. So again, we expected a volatility spike in the first half of the year which has now occurred.

That’s another box checked, bringing us to the big question investors should be asking:

With inflation fears and volatility spikes already hitting the market… where does the S&P 500 stand today? The answer may surprise some investors.

The S&P 500 is basically at the same level where it peaked in late October and early November of last year, about four and a half months ago. If you zoom out even further, the picture becomes clearer.

Go back to the end of the third quarter of 2025. After a V-bottom low in early April, the market surged higher in a seven-month rally with very few meaningful pullbacks. But over the last two quarters? The S&P 500 has essentially been flat.

Now the nowhere action in the S&P500 the last 6 months might frustrate many investors, but it’s actually very common behavior during ongoing bull markets. Periods like this often happen after sharp V-bottom recoveries and extended rallies. Markets need time to digest gains.

To long-time bears or investors who constantly call for a top, this digestion can sometimes look like indigestion. But our team believes what we’re seeing right now is far more likely to be digestion—not indigestion.

In fact, this may represent the final stage of what we’ve described for months as the “seventh inning stretch” in this market cycle. Yes, we are finally suggesting that the market may be closer to the end of this 2-quarter pause than the beginning.

This raises the odds of the S&P 500 could reaccelerating up as we move into the second and third quarters. So what gives us confidence in that outlook?

The answer is Earnings. More specifically, S&P 500 earnings growth.

Let’s take a look at the data from FactSet.

Here’s an updated quarterly table from FactSet showing estimated 2026 S&P 500 earnings per share on a quarterly basis.

Now investors, these estimates will change. They always do. But what matters most for investors is the direction and the growth trend. If you’re looking for a must-read research source, FactSet’s earnings commentary is one of the better free ones available.

Here’s the link: https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-february-13-2026

According to the FactSet data, the earnings outlook currently looks like this:

· First-quarter 2026 EPS growth: about 11.5% and Year-over-year revenue growth: roughly 9.2%

But the real story happens as we move deeper into the year. Earnings growth is expected to accelerate significantly. Current estimates show:

• 15.5% growth in Q2
• 16.5% growth in Q3
• 15.6% growth in Q4

That brings the full-year earnings growth estimate for 2026 to roughly 15 percent.

Historically, bull markets rarely end before earnings progressions like this are delivered.

Market peaks usually occur close to the point where earnings growth peaks, not quarters in advance of it. That’s very different from market bottoms, which often happen for six months or more before fundamentals and earnings begin improving.

Another question we often get from viewers relates to our earlier research comparing the late-1990s dot-com cycle to today’s AI-driven investment cycle. Both periods experienced roughly -21 percent event-driven market declines in our analysis.

So how does today’s market compare to that historical cycle? With our current churning behavior the last 4-6 months,

Let’s look at the overlay.

Here’s the S&P 500 then versus now, an update on the chart we’ve been sharing for months.

And now let me show you two additional charts that continue to stand out to me.

These are semiconductor equipment indexes, comparing the late 1990s technology cycle to today. This is one of the most volatile capex heavy growth industries our stock markets have. I’ve shown these charts before, and I still haven’t heard a convincing explanation.

First, look at the semiconductor equipment index following the LTCM -21% selloff in the S&P500 lows in October 1998.

What we saw then was a 205-day rally above the 200-day moving average, beginning with the breakout and continuing to the next reacceleration up pivot point. The index gained roughly 142 percent at its peak, before pulling back to about a 100 percent gain, and then reaccelerating higher for another seven months.

Now fast-forward to today.

After last year’s -21 percent S&P 500 decline and tariff-tantrum lows, we saw another V-bottom rally. And here’s the chart of the semiconductor equipment index over that period.

The similarities are remarkable.

• About 205 to 208 trading days
• A gain of roughly 142+ percent
• A pullback toward 100 percent before the next upward pivot

And investors remember—this is happening in an index that represents very different companies than it did 30 years ago. Yet the market behavior looks almost identical in percentage return and time. That kind of historical symmetry is difficult to ignore. If this cycle should continue on the same path, the pause that refreshes should be ending.

Closing Thoughts

Investors, so far, the first quarter of 2026 has been a sloppy, choppy environment for the S&P 500.

This is what our investment team expected entering the year. The good news is that we may finally be approaching the end of this choppy phase. After more than six months of sideways movement, the market could soon enter a more constructive period, supported by earnings growth expected to come in the second and third quarters of 2026.

Investors often say they will buy the dip. But when uncertainty hits—whether it’s geopolitical events, inflation fears, or headline risk—many investors hesitate. The reason why the title of this week’s piece is “Go Time.”, is because several of our indicators are now showing signs of peak negativity, suggesting the market may soon pivot back toward what ultimately drives long-term performance: earnings and earnings growth.

Our guidance at Oak Harvest remains the same.

Stay disciplined. Stay diversified. Stay focused on your long-term objectives. Whether your priority is growth, income, or a combination of both, our team is here to help you plan for your family’s financial future—no matter where you are in your career or retirement journey.