Investment Management

Market Updates

Peak CPI/Inflation? 9.1%

July 18, 2022

Equity markets bounced Thursday and Friday but still ended marginally down on the week. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%, with energy and telecom most down. The S&P index is down 18.9% on the year, with all sectors but energy in the red. The index is positive for July with a month-to-date gain of 2.1%. All…

Equities Bounce, Inflation (slowly) Peaking?

July 11, 2022

Equity markets bounced last week due to relief from bond yields, and a feeling that inflation is peaking, albeit it slowly. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% by Friday, led by gains in year-to-date lagging sectors, consumer discretionary, technology and telecom services. Energy, utilities, and materials all lagged the overall indexes. Interest rates ended up higher…

First Half Halt

July 5, 2022

U.S. markets were closed Monday for Independence Day. Stocks ended lower last week, led down by the Nasdaq (-4.1%) followed by the S&P 500 (-2.2%) and the Dow (-1.3%). Interest rates dropped on Friday, with the 10-year dropping to 2.88%. Most commodities have dropped the last 2 weeks (steel, copper, grains, metals, natural gas) with…

Quarter End Bounce

June 27, 2022

U.S. equity futures are flat this Monday morning as the market looks to build on last week’s +6.4% rally in the S&P 500, which pulled it out of the bear’s paws, now down 18.4% from the peak.  Equity markets rebounded last week, as a pullback in bond yields, inflation worries, and commodity and oil prices…

The Bear Surfaces after 24 Months of Hibernation

June 20, 2022

The cash equities markets are closed today for the federal holiday. Although equity futures are trading about 0.8% higher this morning, the S&P 500 dripped 5.8% last week having its worst week since the initial pandemic shutdowns in March 2020.  The S&P500 sits down -23.4% from the peak, now squarely in official bear market territory.…

Summer of ‘Too Hot and No Fun’

June 13, 2022

Equities slumped last week. It’s the same story repeated with higher inflation reports persisting led by services, housing, and energy.  Goods inflation looks to have peaked and is rolling over.  Piling on investor sentiment was the University of Michigan’s survey that showed consumer sentiment plunging to record lows, hurting consumer discretionary stocks the most. The…

Equities Mixed, Positioning for Recovery

June 6, 2022

Equity markets were mixed last week, after the strong Friday jobs report market and inflation worries dragged stocks back down on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% on the week, with health care and financials lagging. Energy, Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Staples helped support the market. The government data flow was mixed last week. Strong…

Rally Hats

May 30, 2022

The search for a bottom continues.  Just as strategists cut their S&P500 targets and warned of an impending recession with the over market already down -17-19% what happened?  The S&P500 put in its best upside week since the pre-2020 Presidential election lows.   With breadth in the market having diverged in a positive manner for about…

Retail Weakness Yet Searching for a Bottom

May 23, 2022

The search for the bottom continues. The S&P 500 has now been down for seven straight weeks, and since the end of WWII, that’s been done only 4 other times. The S&P500 dropped below the “bear market “line intraday a few times but recovered the week to end above it.  Equity markets dropped with the net…

“Luna”cy: Crypto Crash

May 16, 2022

Despite last Friday’s big payday rally, the S&P 500 dropped for a sixth straight week. This had not happened since 2011. Last week’s down move of -2.4% extended this year’s drop in the S&P500 to -15%. Treasury bonds rallied big last week sending the 10-year yield down 20 bp to 2.93%. Calming bond yields are…