Investment Management

Equity markets continued their volatile trading last week amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty caused by Russia invading Ukraine, the economic slowdown it will likely cause, and the commodity cost push it will have on prices this summer. The S&P 500 dropped -1.6% on the week, with strength in defense companies, energy, REIT’s, rails, and utilities marginally…

Despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the S&P 500 finished the week up 0.8%, after some wild intraday swings.  Forward volatility markets are priced for 100+ point intraday moves in the S&P500.  Not fun and untradeable for anyone except computers or the shortest-term traders.   Even with last week’s rally the S&P500 sits down 8% on the…

The S&P 500 ended -1.52% lower despite FOMC meeting minutes suggesting potential flexibility on the pace of policy tightening. Global equities fell last week as investors moved into safer assets amid rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine.  European equities dropped more than domestic USA ending the week down about -1.80% on geopolitical concerns. Consumer staple…

The markets continue their “whipsawing away” theme of first quarter 2022.  The S&P500 fell -1.8% last week to stretch its correction to -7.9%. The technology heavy NASDAQ is down about -12% YTD.   On a YTD basis, the S&P 500’s Energy sector (led by old line) has outperformed its other 10 sectors: Energy (+26.5%), Financials (2.5),…

At 4500 on the S&P500, the index sits 6% below its all-time highs.  Even with the Nasdaq surging 8% in four sessions last week, it sits down about -10% below its all-time highs.  A one-day -26% faceplant by Facebook/Meta crashed the tech rally party. Amazon wowed investors with the strength of its software business and…

Overview Selloffs like the ones we are currently experiencing are never fun and enjoyable.  These are very normal feelings. The main source of the volatility in market is the Federal Reserve and the prospect of tighter monetary policy. Fortunately, there are several recent historical periods we can look at that may provide a clue as…

Volatility Overview The team at Oak Harvest has been anticipating and messaging to clients and prospects a rocky start to 2022 since early November.  Selloffs like the ones we are currently experiencing are never fun.  They aren’t fun for you, they aren’t fun for us, and almost everyone I know has their anxiety rising, including…

US financial markets are closed today in observance of the MLK holiday.  Overseas markets are broadly higher today with Japan up +.7% and Europe up +.5% while the Hang Seng is down -.7%.  If you believe the numbers (we remain suspect), China’s economy beat expectations in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. For 2021,…

The S&P 500 fell -1.9% last week on the back of continued worries of Federal Reserve monetary tightening actions for 2022.  The 10-year Treasury interest rate yield rose to just near 1.75%, up about 25bps since yields troughed in early December (12/3).  Higher valuation technology stocks led the NASDAQ lower, falling over -4.1% on the…

The broad S&P 500 index gained 27% in 2021 and closed at an all-time high 70 times, the most since 1995.  The best performing S&P sector was not technology as one would infer from watching TV.  Old-line energy, whose +48% annual gain was its best ever led the year.  Real estate was the second-best performing…