Investment Management

Market Updates

Bears Gored Again by Breadth and Technology

July 26, 2021

Equity markets fell for the first two days of the week amid spreading virus variants and concerns about the future path of global growth. The brief decline brought the bear calls out for a -10-20% forthcoming decline. Never mind that these strategists have been wrongly calling for this kind of “dip” for 9-12 months. This…

Summertime: Bond Rallies are Bad

July 19, 2021

U.S. equity futures are down this morning preopening, from -0.5/-.75% for the NASDAQ, -1.25% for the S&P500, -1.5% for the Dow, and -2% for the small cap Russell 2000. Concerns about U.S. and global economic growth are being stoked by rising COVID-19 cases due to the Delta variant. As one would expect, Treasury yields are…

The Bull Market Continues

July 12, 2021

While global equities were mixed last week, the Technology heavy NASDAQ (+0.4%) and the S&P500 (+0.4%) rose to new all-time highs.  Japan/NIKKEI (-2.9%) and France/CAC40 (-0.4%) were global laggards. Overall, for the week, growth stocks outperformed value as the 10-year Treasury fell 6 bps, with the FAANGs returning 1.73% compared to -1.12% for the Russell…

More All-Time Highs for the 4th of July

July 6, 2021

The S&P 500 rose 8.2% in Q2 and is up about 14.4% for the first half of 2021.  Tech led the second quarter after a sluggish Q1. The tech heavy Nasdaq jumped 9.5% in the second quarter and sits up about 12.5% year to date.  The more value biased Dow was up a milder 4.6%…

2nd Half 2021: Still a Bull Market

June 28, 2021

Oak Harvest has released our 2H2021 Market Outlook titled- “Let the Good Times Roll.” The Outlook can be read here: https://oakharvestfg.com/2021-second-half-market-outlook/ Further data detail and additional videos and podcasts on the material will be forthcoming. Our initial podcast release of the Outlook can be found here: https://oakharvestfg.com/stock-talk/let-the-good-times-roll-the-bull-market-marches-on-in-the-second-half-of-2021/ While mindful of normal summer seasonally in both…

Stalled: 2H2021 Outlook-Let the Good Times Roll

June 21, 2021

Amongst the anticipated market weakness last week, the OHFG investment team released our 2H2021 Market Outlook titled “Let the Good Times Roll.” Further data, detail, additional videos, and podcasts on the material will be forthcoming. The initial abbreviated version can be found here. Equity markets dropped last week amid a broad-based selloff in commodities and…

Transitory Rotation: Growth Upturn

June 14, 2021

Rotating: Growth upturn, transitory commodity inflation peak. The S&P 500 rose to a minor all-time high last week. It added 0.4% last week with healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors providing the biggest boost. Financials and materials lagged on the back of a flatter yield curve, a decline in commodity prices and peaking inflation worries. Even with…

Mid-Week Reality Check

June 8, 2021

Chris Perras, CFA®, Chief Investment Officer, notes that watching television financial shows may be bad for investors. Be careful what you consume. TV financial media said For example, TV media reported in their headline that: “Market returns are much worse when inflation is high, Goldman says. Here’s how to play it.” Reality is But, Goldman…

View: Summer stall continues

June 7, 2021

Our view: Equity markets are rotating sector leadership during the continued summer “stall” and second quarter “dead zone.” Equity markets rose back toward all-time highs, with the S&P 500 adding 0.6%. Energy led with a 6.7% rally, while health care lagged. U.S. payrolls rose 559,000 in May, highlighting that while demand is poised to remain…

Up, Down, Up, Down…

June 1, 2021

Up, down whipsawing and waiting: summer “stall” continues. We are in the “summer stall” for the stock market. In our view, it started “Tax Day,” April 16. Earnings season has ended, and positive reports were the rule, not the exception — as expected. In our view, the markets would not be close to new all-time-highs…