Weekend Update, March 2nd, 2026

March 2, 2026

Higher Inflation – Weekend Iran Attack

U.S. Stock Performance – Index and Sector Moves

Over the weekend, the U.S. and Israel moved on Iran. Asian markets were lower, Nikkei -700 pts, -1.3%, Hang Seng -2.1%, while Europe is, down about -2%, led by airline stocks. The immediate is WTI oil opened over +7% to ~$72/bbl, and Brent crude jumped +13% to around $80. OPEC+ said it would increase output by 206,000 bpd, which was more than expected. European natural gas prices surged over +20% to €39.40/MWh. There is a flight to the usual safe havens: the dollar, the yen ansd Swiss franc, gold and bonds. Iranian forces were telling ships not to cross the Strait of Hormuz, but it was still open Sunday evening. Oil tankers were already hesitant to cross as a few ships had already been attacked. 15% of global oil and 20% of global LNG exports go through that 20-mile-long stretch of water.

U.S. Markets

  • U.S. indexes were mixed to slightly lower on the week with the SP 500 (-.4%) ending the week at 6879. Before today, the S&P 500 was -.9% down in February, but up +0.5% for YTD.
  • Value and cyclical sectors, like energy and industrials, performed better than growth/tech last week. The tech sector had the largest percentage drop, falling -2.2%, followed by a -2% decline in financials and a -0.5% loss in consumer discretionary. On the upside, a safety bid performed well as utilities rose +2.9%, +2.7% increase in consumer staples, a +2.1% gain in health care and a +2% rise in energy. Materials, real estate and comm services also gained.
  • In single stocks, Dell (DELL) rose over +20% on good earnings and a short squeeze. Constellation Energy (CEG) had the largest percentage increase in utilities, climbing +12% as the company reported Q4 adjusted earnings per share and operating revenue above analysts’ mean estimates. On the downside, First Solar (FSLR) dumped -18% as the company posted Q4 EPS below analysts’ estimates despite higher-than-expected net sales. First Solar also forecasts 2026 net sales below the Street view on higher tariffs and weaker demand. International Business Machines (IBM) shares also weighed on the technology sector, falling -6.6%. Nvidia (NVDA) reported blowout earnings and revenue, however the stock sold off from $200 to $175/s as investors digest the product release of Vera-Rubin chip in 2q2026.
  • Year-to-date index performance through Thursday, last week: Russell 2000 Value up +10.88%, S&P Midcap 400 Growth Index was up +10.58%, S&P Midcap 400 Index up +9.17%, Russell 2000 Index was up +8.02%, S&P Midcap 400 Value Index up +7.76%, Russell 1000 Value Index up +6.99%, and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index up +6.26%. On the lagging side, the Russell 1000 Index is up +1.69%, the S&P 500 Index was up +1.09%, the Russell 1000 Growth Index was down -3.13% and the Mag 7 basket (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) was down -3.98%.

International/Global

Per Goldman Sachs global sector returns last week and YTD by Country:

Exhibits 3 and 4.

Volatility & Risk Sentiment

  • The market volatility index (VIX) moved, higher toward 20 creating a flat curve.

Bonds & Interest Rates

  • U.S. Treasury yields rallied lower during the week on lower growth but higher inflation.
    • 2-yr: around ~3.40%
    • 10-yr: under 4%
    • 30-yr Mortgage: under 6%
  • The yield flattened on lower growth and expectations of earlier fed cuts.

Inflation expectations have moved up. One-year breakeven rates have risen to over 3.8%, up from 2.12% in December. This is the highest reading since March/April of 2025, which was peak tariff.

Exhibit 14: 1 - week sector performance across regions.

Economic Data, Monetary Policy & Earnings

In economic news, the PPI rose by +0.5% in January following a +0.4% increase in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was higher than the 0.3% expected in surveys.

Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI rose by +0.8%, higher than the +0.3% gain anticipated and the previous month’s +0.6% jump. As previously discussed, real time bond components sniffed out this trend starting late December 2025, however the data should be reaching its seasonal peak shortly in mid-March.

February auto sales are expected today while the month’s payrolls and unemployment come Friday.

Earnings reports this week include Progressive (PGR), MongoDB (MDB), Norwegian Cruise, Target (TGT), AutoZone (AZO), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Broadcom (AVGO), Dycom (DYC), Costco (COST), Marvel Semi (MRVL), Kroger (KR), Gap Stores (GPS),

Commodities, Currencies & Macro Assets

Commodities (Weekly & YTD)
  • Oil (WTI): Big gains over $72/bb; elevated geopolitical risks pricing in supply risk.
  • Gold: New ATH above $5400/oz amid safe-haven demand.
  • Silver: Strong gains over $82/oz
  • Copper: near $6
  • Natural Gas: Back to $3.00, reflecting LNG shutins on Iran war.
  • Bitcoin: $66,000, down over -45% from peak, trying to trough. Is it a GFC low repeat?
 Currencies
  • DXY (Dollar Index): Rallying above 98 on safety bid.
  • USD/JPY: Yen strengthening on flight to safety bid.

OHFG Stock Talk

Citrini Research: The Talk of Wall Street – Will AI create an economic doom loop?

US Equities and US Equity Sectors.

US Equity Factors and Global Equities.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.