Weekend Update, January 12th, 2026
He’s Back!!
Index, Sector, and Asset Performance
The S&P 500 started off the year choppy but right foot, ending the week at 6966, up just short of +1.8% on the year and 1.6% on the week. Last week, we got two new ATHs and 4 up days out of 5. Global equities started out more strongly along with small caps leading the market up +3.2 and +5.8, respectively. Cyclicals are currently large cap leadership with materials and industrials up +6.4 and +4.4 pct YTD. US Large Cap technology is underperforming. Recall, net, the S&P 500 went nowhere for November and December. Here’s the data from Bberg.
The best performing groups YTD in the S&P 500 are Materials (+6.4 pct), Industrials (+4.4 pct) and Energy (+4.4 pct). Only Industrials outperformed in 2025 (+17.7 pct vs. +16.4 pct for the S&P 500).
Technology is currently underperforming YTD (+1.5 pct), as is Communications (+0.2 pct). Health Care is also trailing YTD. Utilities are the only group down YTD (-0.4 pct), continuing its 12-month underperformance. Sector returns last week from Bberg.
After material stocks, the consumer discretionary sector had the largest percentage increase for the week, and an advance in industrials. Homebuilders Lennar (LEN) and PulteGroup (PHM) were among big winners in consumer discretionary, rising +14% and +11%, respectively, on the President’s plan for his “representatives” to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. Looks like the White House wants to start QE4 even before a new Fed Chair takes office in May.
The plan also boosted Builders FirstSource (BLDR), which was the top performer in industrials, jumping +19% on the week.
Albemarle, the chemical maker focused on EV batteries, (ALB) had the largest percentage gain in materials, climbing +13%. Utilities were the only decliner for the week, dropping -1.6% as investors position for what they hope is an economic acceleration in 1q.
He’s Back: The big global news over the weekend was 3-fold.
- News broke on Sunday that the Department of Justice had opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell related to the $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters. The President denied involvement.
- Friday night the President called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%. The President can’t directly force the credit card issuers to cap interest rates, but he can make life difficult for them with regulatory agencies that the issuers fall under.
- News surrounding the anti-regime protests in Iran.
S&P 500 futures are down -0.5% leading up to the opening bell, while Nasdaq is down -0.75%. Treasury rates are slightly higher, with the 10-year yield up minimally +2 bps to 4.19%, while the dollar is lower.
Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary
Economic data will include the December consumer and producer price indexes, in addition to December new and existing home sales and a delayed report on November retail sales.
The gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate from the Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) GDP Now model as of January 8 shows 5.4% real growth for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025. That rate is well above the consensus estimate of Wall Street economists.
The earnings calendar for the 4th quarter picks up this week with banks leading off as always. Expect earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS). The JPM Healthcare conference is also this week.
Per Goldman: Consensus expects S&P 500 EPS growth of 7% year/year in 4Q 2025, but this forecast appears too conservative once again. S&P 500 EPS grew by 10% or more during each of the first three quarters of 2025, exceeding analyst estimates by an average of +6 pp.
Commodities and Currencies
Oil bounced on Iran and Venezuela geopolitical concerns.
Copper, gold, silver and other industrial metals have hit new ATHs and are up materially on the “sell America” trade. Precious metals like gold and silver continue their strong performance with gold back over $4,500. Crypto assets and bitcoin have been volatile since pulling back from their mid-summer $125k ATH and sit near $90k.
The US dollar has been flat since April but is weaker this AM on the “sell America” trade.
OHFG Stock Talk
2026 Market Outlook Recap: A Little Patience
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
