Weekend Update, January 19th, 2026
Volatility Speaks: He’s Back!!
Index, Sector, and Asset Performance
The US stock market is closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. President Trump once again raised geopolitical concerns over the weekend with an initial 10% tariff on European countries not backing his Greenland plan then increasing to 25%. USA markets look to open down by over -1% when stocks reopen for trading Tuesday. As we discussed in last week’s Stock Talk, our team expects a return of volatility and a 1q26 stock decline, which should set up a buying opportunity in early 2q. S&P 500 index fell -0.4% last week as several big banks began the quarterly earnings season with weaker-than-expected forward revenue guidance and higher 2026 spending. The S&P 500 ended Friday at 6,940. The S&P 500 market benchmark is up +1.4% YTD. Japan and EM rallied big by +4.2% and +2.2%. Last year’s lagging groups are leading the way in 2026, instead of tech stocks. With the threat of rising inflation, cyclical sectors like industrials, energy, and materials are the top performers in 2026 so far, up +7.6%, +6.8%, and +7.2%, respectively.
The financial sector had the biggest decline of the week, falling -2.3%, followed by a -2% decline in consumer discretionary and a -1.5% drop in comm services. Health care and technology also declined. Wells Fargo (WFC) was among the biggest losers with a -7.9% loss amid weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue. Wells Fargo’s Q4 corporate and investment banking revenue edged up to but was weighed down by a -7% decline in investment banking. Cruise lines were the hardest-hit stocks in consumer discretionary, with Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) shares falling -11% and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) and Carnival (CCL) dropping -10% each.
Boring was last week’s winner with real estate +4.1%, followed by a +3.7% rise in consumer staples and a +3% increase in industrials. Energy, utilities and materials also edged higher. Real estate winners included shares of Crown Castle (CCI), which climbed +8.6% as the company ended its infrastructure agreement with DISH Wireless after default on payments.
He’s Back: The big global news over the weekend again with the President back on tariff war path. In a move that U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer labeled as “completely wrong,” Trump over the weekend threatened to impose a 10% tariff on European allies Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and the United Kingdom beginning Feb. 1 “on any and all goods sent to the United States of America” until Denmark agrees to sell Greenland to the U.S. Trump said the tariff would be increased to 25% on June 1. The threat came after several European NATO allies committed to sending troops to Greenland to take part in military exercises alongside a renewed effort to bolster the security of the Arctic island. President Trump is also claiming that one reason he is pushing to acquire Greenland is that he didn’t win the Nobel Peace Prize, according to a text message he sent to Norway’s prime minister over the weekend.
Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary
Economic data will include December pending home sales, the first revision to Q3 gross domestic product and a delayed report on November.
Earnings reports expected next week include Netflix (NFLX), 3M (MMM), US Bancorp (USB), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Procter & Gamble (PG), GE Aerospace (GS), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), and Intel (INTC).
Per Goldman: Consensus expects S&P 500 EPS growth of 7% year/year in 4Q 2025, but this forecast appears too conservative once again. S&P 500 EPS grew by 10% or more during each of the first three quarters of 2025, exceeding analyst estimates by an average of +6 pp.
Commodities and Currencies
Oil crossed above $60 on geopolitics.
Copper, gold, silver and other industrial metals have hit new ATHs and are up materially over the weekend on the Trump Greenland tariff idea. Precious metals like gold and silver continue their strong performance with gold back over $4500.
Crypto assets and bitcoin have been volatile since pulling back from their mid-summer $125k ATH and sit near $90k.
The US dollar has been flat since April but is weaker this AM on the “sell America” trade.
OHFG Stock Talk
2026 Market Outlook Recap: Volatility Speaks
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
