Weekend Update, March 9th, 2026

March 9, 2026

Iran War – Inflation Spike

Key Takeaways Last Week

  • Global stock markets declined during the week.
  • Treasury yields rose on inflation fears causing losses in most bond markets.
  • The U.S. dollar strengthened on a bid for safety.
  • Oil prices surged sharply on geopolitical tensions.
  • U.S. job data showed unexpected job losses, adding to economic concerns.

U.S. Stock Performance – Index and Sector Moves

The first week of March was down for global financial markets. A sharp rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to higher oil prices, combined with weaker economic data, pushed most asset prices lower as volatility in stocks and bonds spiked sharply higher. Oil shipments going through the Strait of Hormuz are down over 90% from normal transit causing a spike in prices. This removes between 18-20mbpd from the global oil markets. Oil shippers are worried about physical risk more than obtaining insurance. This is a supply disruption, not demand destruction event, so far.

Global stock markets declined during the week. Domestically, indexes finished sharply lower. The S&P 500 fell about -2% to 6740, the Dow 30 dropped about -2.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined around -1.25%. Smaller companies performed the worst, with the Russell 2000 falling roughly -3.75%. The S&P 500 is now -1.5% YTD.

The selloff was broad with the historic spike in oil prices, hurting every sector except energy. The materials sector had the biggest loss, sliding -7.2%, followed by a -4.9% decline in consumer staples, a -4.6% drop in health care, and a -4.1% decline in industrials. Real estate, utilities, and communication services fell more than -2% each, while financials, consumer discretionary, and technology also moved lower.

In single stocks, PPG Industries (PPG) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) had the biggest weekly percentage losses in the materials sector, falling -13% each. Vulcan Materials (VMC) shares slid -11% on the back of the spike in natural gas prices.

In consumer staples, Brown-Forman (BF.B) was among the worst stocks, falling –12%. Alcohol consumption has fallen to a 30-year low.

International/Global

Per Goldman Sachs global sector returns last week and YTD by Country:

Exhibits 3 and 4.

Volatility & Risk Sentiment

  • Stock market volatility index (VIX) moved sharply higher toward the 30 level creating an inverted and backward curve, usually a sign of panic and forced margin selling.
  • Bond volatility (MOVE) rose dramatically on the back of higher inflation fears and rising long term rates with fewer anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.

Bonds & Interest Rates

  • U.S. Treasury rose dramatically last week on inflation fears. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased to roughly 4.1%
  • The yield curve flattened on lower growth and expectations of earlier fed cuts.
  • Inflation expectations moved up. One-year breakeven rates to over 4.25%, up from 2.12% in December. This is the highest reading since March/April of 2025, which was peak tariff.

Exhibit 14: 1-week sector performance across regions.

Economic Data, Monetary Policy & Earnings

The biggest economic surprise came from the U.S. labor market. The February jobs report showed a loss of about 92,000 jobs, while economists had expected job growth. The unemployment rate rose to around 4.4%.

This weakness raised concerns about the strength of the economy. At the same time, rising oil prices raises inflation concerns, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to decide when to change interest rates.

Earnings reports this week include Oracle (ORCL), Campbell’s (CPB), and Adobe (ADBE).

Commodities, Currencies & Macro Assets

Commodities were one of the biggest stories of the week, especially energy. Oil prices surged sharply due to fears that conflict in the Middle East could disrupt global supply. Reports of production cuts and shipping disruptions pushed U.S. crude oil close to $90 per barrel and Brent crude above $92, representing one of the largest weekly increases in years. Oil surged over +10% over the weekend to over $100/bbl.

The surge in oil prices increased concerns about rising inflation and slowing economic growth. High energy prices could slow global growth while pushing prices higher, a situation called stagflation.

Gold prices were mixed during the week as the dollar rallied. While gold is seen as a safe-haven asset, it did not rise despite the geopolitical tensions and ended slightly lower than earlier highs. Recall, gold has been a top performing asset the last 2 years and in times of stress, many investors sell leaders first and ask questions later.

Oil (WTI): Big gains over $90/bb; elevated geopolitical risks pricing in supply risk.

Gold: Pulled back below $5100/oz amid sell leaders

Silver: Down on leverage unwinding

Copper: below $6 on slowing global growth concerns

Natural Gas: Over $3.00, reflecting LNG shut ins on Iran war.

Bitcoin: $67,000, down over -45% from peak, however looks like a bottoming pattern.

Currencies

  • DXY (Dollar Index): Rallying above 99 on safety bid.
  • USD/JPY: Yen strengthening on flight to safety bid.

OHFG Stock Talk

Off for Vacation

Per Seeking Alpha:

US Equities and US Equity Sectors.

US Equity Factors and Global Equities.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.