Weekend Update, January 26th, 2026

 A Very Long-Short Week

Index, Sector, and Asset Performance

Every weekend in 2026 has brought a surprise event, first, the Venezuela attack, then the Powell charges, and most recently the Greenland escalation. Last Tuesday, the S&P 500 dropped -2.18% on the Greenland escalation before recovering the entire drop and settling back in the previous week’s range. For the week ending, the S&P 500 dropped -0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about -0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined by -0.7%. The S&P 500 ended the week at 6,915. This was the 2nd down week for the index, yet it is still up +1% YTD.

With the hint of rising inflation, energy and materials were the strongest performing sectors, both gaining over +2% on the S&P 500, as commodity and precious metal prices surged. Financials, utilities, and tech lagged on growth scare concerns. Exxon Mobil (XOM) rose on strong crude pricing and high downstream margins helping lift the sector. Chevron (CVX) benefited from oil strength and improved sentiment around global LNG markets.

The financial sector dropped the most, falling -2.5%, followed by a -2.4% loss in real estate and a -2% drop in utilities. Industrials and technology also moved lower. Capital One Financial slid -9.1%. The company’s 4Q EPS missed analysts’ estimates despite a slight revenue beat. The company said it agreed to buy AI-powered financial software platform Brex for $5.15 billion in cash and stock.

Shares of Intel fell -14% on its earnings day as the company flagged supply disruptions. The company also said during its Q4 earnings call that it now expects higher 2026 capital expenditure compared with its initial guidance. Good for semi equipment suppliers in 2026. The energy sector rose +3.1%, an +2.6% advance in materials, and gains of +1.1% each in communication services and health care.

SLB was among the energy top performers, climbing +5.2%. 4Q results from the company, Schlumberger, were driven by double-digit revenue growth in its digital and production systems divisions, as well as stabilized global upstream activity. Copper and gold miner, Freeport-McMoRan rose +2.9%, boosting the materials sector. It’s on schedule with its “phased restart” beginning in Q2 of Indonesia’s Grasberg Block Cave underground mine.

This past week Powell got some backing from the Supreme Court, as justices expressed unease over Trump’s attempt to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. In Davos, Trump said he had no plans to fire Powell.  Trump also said the Fed chief would not be happy if he stays on as a governor when his term as chairman expires. This weekend, a powerful winter storm disrupted air travel across much of the United States, triggering thousands of flight cancellations at major airports.  Over the weekend, President Trump threatened to implement 100% tariffs on goods imported from Canada if the country goes ahead with a newly signed trade agreement with China. “If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A.”

The 10-year-yield in Japan surged to levels not seen since 2011, sparked by remarks by PM Takaichi proposing increased government spending and tax cuts, which in turn resulted in concerns about the Japanese government’s already high debt levels. The concern is that if the Bank of Japan does not resume yield-curve control, it would affect the yen carry trade. This morning currency intervention has the Yen higher and dollar lower on the global stage.

Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary

The key economic data release this week are the durable goods report on Monday and the producer price index on Friday. The January FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference. We expect no rate cut and a mildly hawkish statement on inflation. The FOMC is set to keep the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% and is unlikely to provide much guidance about future changes to the policy rate.

Earnings reports expected this week are extensive with technology, autos, consumer goods, defense, financials, energy, real estate, and travel.  The Mag 7 will be in focus, with results due out from Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms (META). Beyond these tech names others from ASML (ASML), Texas Instruments (TXN), ServiceNow (NOW), Lam Research (LRCX), IBM (IBM), Western Digital (WDC), Seagate Technology (STX), and Corning (GLW) also report.

General Motors (GM) will offer the auto update, while UPS (UPS), Comcast (CMCSA), and Union Pacific (UNP) will provide reports on logistics and communications demand.

Consumer names including Starbucks (SBUX), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), and Royal Caribbean (RCL) report. In healthcare, UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA) will represent. Many defense names report, with Boeing (BA), Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX (RTX), General Dynamics (GD), and Northrop Grumman (NOC). Energy names Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Valero Energy (VLO) join industrial leaders Caterpillar (CAT) and Honeywell (HON) on the docket.

Financials Mastercard (MA), Visa (V), American Express (AXP), Blackstone (BX), Annaly Capital (NLY), AGNC Investment (AGNC), NextEra Energy (NEE), and SoFi Technologies (SOFI), offering a broad read on consumer spending, credit trends, and capital markets.

Per Goldman: Consensus expects S&P 500 EPS growth of 7% year/year in 4Q 2025, but this forecast appears too conservative once again. S&P 500 EPS grew by 10% or more during each of the first three quarters of 2025, exceeding analyst estimates by an average of +6 pp.

Commodities and Currencies

Oil crossed above $60 on geopolitics and concerns over Iran.

Copper, gold, silver and other industrial metals have hit new ATHs and are up materially YTD on geopolitical concerns and a fear of global currency devaluation. Precious metals like gold and silver continue their strong performance with gold over $5,000 and silver launching about $100/oz.

Crypto assets and bitcoin have been volatile since pulling back from their mid-summer $125k ATH and sit near $88k.

The US dollar was weaker last week on the “sell America” trade and lower this morning on Japanese Yen intervention.

OHFG Stock Talk

2026 Market Outlook Recap: Volatility Speaks, Investors Were Warned

Per Seeking Alpha:

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.