Retirement: Are we Heading into a Recession from Inflation? How it impacts my Investment and Saving?

Welcome to the Retirement Income Show. I’m Mark Elliott alongside the CEO and founder of Oak Harvest Financial group. Troy sharp. You can always go to the website to find out more Oak harvest financial group.com. A lot of great information there. You can always call the team. If you have any questions or concerns about where you are and your road to retirement.

It’s 1-800-822-6434, no cost to talk to the team. They’re here to help. Just don’t know if they can, until you give them a call. They would love to help you. If they could 808 2 2 64 34, Troy, we’ll give you that number throughout the program. You hear him obviously on the radio every week, but you can go to YouTube search for Troy sharpen, Oak Harvest, over a hundred videos on there.

Weren’t even to talk a little bit about that today. Troy welcome. I guess we’re going to talk about some of the YouTube videos of people are really excited about that. You’re seeing a lot of traction with the topics. So we’re gonna use that kind of as a drive today for the show, but you’re getting a lot of questions from people coming in.

People are concerned about a recession and it’s the, you know, ability to get anything right now. It takes forever. I took my car in on September 1st, but new tires on the back, it turns out there was a problem with the control arm and the bolt was frozen or something. And it took five weeks to get that.

Getting stuff right now is a big challenge. And those kinds of things in lead small businesses, I would think are in a lot of trouble. If they need things shipped into them, that they can then sell holy cow. Everything’s kind of crazy. People are concerned coming in and going, Troy, we’re going to have a recession.

Yeah. It’s and I, I kind of went through a similar thing really. Recently had someone back into my car while I was not in the car. Of course they don’t leave a note. They don’t leave any information and call the insurance company. They tell me to take it up to the, find a place for it. It’s a drive a Subaru.

So it’s an Outback and this thing, it drives like a Mercedes it’s really, really smooth. I’m a big fan of the Subarus. Anyways, so I get a choice of different dealers or not dealers, but body shops. And I want one close to the house. So, figure it out, drop it off up there. Or at least they come to it and.

If they tell me it’s going to be about four to five weeks to get everything in, to fix the car. And on top of that, the rental car company, because insurance only paid for up to $750 to reimburse me and the rental car costs over $700 a week. Oh, I had a, you know, I pay the deductible and the insurance covers it.

It was like a $5,000 fix, but they covered that. But the, the, the big part there was, I had to pay for the rental car for about five weeks. And of course only get reimbursed for one of those weeks because there simply aren’t any rental cars out there. Just like there isn’t any inventory for, for used cars or new cars.

All of this is a direct result of primarily the supply chain disruptions because of COVID and people not being at work and just things being backed up. But also labor shortages. So, I mean, there are some concerning aspects to what people are experiencing in their day-to-day lives that, that, that.

People wonder, Hey, are we going into a recession? Are things taking a turn for the worst? Economically? What about my retirement account? What about my investment account? I can’t tell you how many times over the past two or three weeks we’ve had clients. And say, Troy, should I be going to cash? Should I be getting more defensive?

So we’re going to talk about what we’re seeing behind the scenes from an economic indicator standpoint, what we should be doing, what we anticipate moving forward. So a lot of good information. On today’s show in regards to that exact content and is like you said, mark, we’re going to talk a lot about the YouTube videos that are getting hundreds of thousands of views right now, and the reason they’re.

So, I think gaining so much traction is simply because we’re going through a lot of the planning techniques that we do for clients and answering the big questions. Do you have enough? Can you read. How do you reduce taxes? One of the biggest things we do as financial advisors and retirement planners, helping you to pay less tax.

So we’re going to go through some of those, talk about it, the nuances, some of the planning techniques, et cetera. So, yeah. Great show today. It sounds to me like one of the keys really is to have two cars. So you’ve got a Subaru Outback, then maybe you need a Subaru WRX. So you’ve got two totally different cars.

One goes in the shop. You don’t have to pay the exorbitant real fees. Well, I don’t even know what the Subaru WRX. It’s a sporty one. It’s the fast one cars right now are crazy. There’s a lot of things that are crazy. I think the, the washing machine dishwasher type things, dryers, all of those, the inflation on those is skyrocketed.

It’s crazy. I bought a TV right before the pandemic and I thought, wow, how lucky was I to buy that right before this whole thing hit and electronic super high. There’s so many things that are going up in price. And the more things go up and price it, there comes to a point, what do they call it?

Stagflation. When everything gets to a certain point, people say, well, okay, now you’ve put it out of my reach. I’m not buying anything at this point. That’s probably part of the thing that could lead to recession. Is that, would that be kind of in the ballpark? Some people finally just say, okay, I’ve done.

Yeah. I mean, it’s it, it is a concern. Of course there’s right now, there are more, what we call headline risks out there in the market than probably real risks. Here’s the thing with inflation, the markets. And it’s not just the stock market. When we talk about the markets, usually we are talking about the stock market, but when it comes to inflation, pay attention to the bond market.

Now, where, where do you pay attention? What do you pay attention to? Well, one thing is the yield spread between the 10 year and the two year treasury, but it is a more simple mechanism or more simple thing. The 10 year treasury rate. So right now, if you want to loan money to the federal government for 10 years, as with the recording of this show this morning, it was around 1.5%.

Okay. That was the same rate in the ten-year treasury, as it was in 2017. After Trump got elected, the same rates, it was, an Obama’s second term when he got reelected and what the ten-year treasury rate tells us is. If the bond market is concerned about inflation. Now why the bond market well, bond yields are very susceptible to inflation.

Meaning if you’re getting one and a half, 2% on your bond yields, which essentially is what they’re paying to. People are going to sell those bonds, , rapidly. If the market truly believes that inflation long-term is a big time concern as they sell those bonds, that will create pricing pressure to move the prices down.

And we know when prices go down with bonds, interest rates go up. So the smart money, the, the, the institutional. The market is clearly telling us that inflation long-term is not a big concern right now, even though short term. Yes, we are all experiencing these inflationary pressures. This is why the federal reserve is saying that inflation is transmit.

Now I believe it’s more, more, it’s been here longer than they were anticipating possibly, but keep in mind, just, just follow that ten-year treasury. If it starts to get above 2%, the market is telling you yes. Inflation is not just transitory. We are now concerned for it. Long-term when we talk about professional, or we talk about investment management.

These are the types decisions and adjustments we need to be making to the allocation based on the economic data and what the financial markets are telling us. We don’t just want to watch all the different news programs and radio shows get filled with fear and then start making these random. You know, allocation adjustments going to cash.

Okay. That is how you really, really, really hurt yourself over time because we strongly believe the market is going to grind higher into the end of the year. We are starting to really monitor some of these, these, items along with a lot more, but there are so many things out there that we’re following to help us make good decisions about how and where.

Do we want to get defensive, but right now, you know, right now it’s the best strategy in our opinion. Okay. Is to stay the course, as long as you have an investment plan, that is part of a larger plan, like our Retirement Process process. So investing. Are the purpose of them. Of course, you want to manage risk and generate growth.

But your investment plan needs to be aligned with your income strategy and those two need to be aligned with your tax strategy.

You’re not in the accumulation phase anymore. You’re entering the deep cumulation phase. All of these pieces need to be working together. And the difference between averaging let’s say 7% and 8% over a 30 year period or a 20 year period is significant amounts of money. So. If you want to sit down, if you want to have a conversation, if you want to have an analysis done showing what, where you currently are and how things can be improved or how your investment plan is, or is not aligned with your income strategy and your tax plan.

That’s the big one. When we go through some of these examples from the YouTube videos that I’ve been doing, you’re going to see how a lot of times it’s possible to, to save an estimated 300, 400, $500,000 in tax. Over the course of your retirement, but you have to pick up the phone, give us a call. Of course, 1 808 2 2 64 34.

We’re going to sit down. We’re going to do an analysis of your situation. We’re going to look at the taxes. We’re gonna look at the income. We’re gonna look at the risk management, see where you may or may not be over or under allocated to, and really talk about defensive strategies. Talk about growth strategies and this type of environment.

1 808 2 2 64 34. Of course, visit the website, Oak harvest financial group. Troy, take a minute or two and kind of reiterate what happens when somebody does call 808 2 2 64 34, how the whole process plays out, because I think it’s not like people come in and they call you. And then all of a sudden you’re trying to sell them things.

That’s not how this whole thing works. Can you kind of explain this to how it plays out? Yeah. So the first thing is, is Frank is going to have a conversation with you and we want to just simply make sure that we’re a good fit for one another. So we’re not a brokerage firm where we’re just doing trades on behalf of clients.

We’re not transactional. We are relational. We only work with families that want a relationship with someone to help them with the planning side and the investment management side of things. Frank’s going to have a conversation with you understand what’s important to you, who you are. And then he’s going to schedule a zoom meeting, or you can come down here.

Face-to-face our headquarters is I 10 and bunker hill where? Right. I’m right here in Memorial city. And on that first visit, all we’re going to do is just get to know you. That’s really, all we’re going to do is you’re going to get to know us. We want to get some of the objective data like income assets and some of the subjective data, of course, as far as.

What’s important to you. How do you envision spending your retirement? What, are you currently working with someone? What do you like about what you’re currently doing? What do you not like about what you’re currently doing? And from there our team. So we have a financial planning team. We have a tax team.

They’re going to go through the data in between that first and the second visit that we gather and start to form the foundation of a plan, but more importantly, provide analysis where we’re going to look at. Okay, you keep, if you keep going this way, Versus how we would do it from an income and tax planning standpoint, you could possibly be spending anywhere from 300, 400, 500.

Sometimes we see over a million dollars in potential savings from inappropriate tax strategy. But this is why we require relationships because when you’re modeling and forecasting and going out many, many years into the future, all we can ever do is choose a path to, to take action on. That’s all we can do.

We can’t just say, here you go. Here’s your plan. Do this exactly for the next 10 years. It doesn’t work like that. Things change such as the balances in your IRA, the balances and your non IRA, unexpected expenses. Come. Where are you going to take that money from a lot of times, it may make sense to take it from the IRA, as opposed to the non IRA.

When you’re looking at a tax plan over many, many years, Roth conversion, those rules possibly could be changing with this upcoming legislation. So many different aspects of not just your personal life, but the economic landscape, the monetary policy landscape, the legislative landscape, all of these moving pieces.

Impact what decisions you should be making and having a trusted partner to work with and help whittle all of that noise down into how can I take actionable intelligence from what’s going on and apply it to my situation. That’s what it’s really like working with a financial advisor, a retirement planner, someone who understands how all these different dots connect and most importantly, how they impact your returns.

So that’s what that, that first and second visit, kind of looks like they’re typically at the end of that second visit, we have enough information and you understand who we are and what we’re doing. We simply ask if you want our help, if you want our help, great. We can start to open up accounts, move money over, implement the planning items that we’ve talked about.

We have a third and a fourth meeting after that, where we’re going deeper into the plan. A lot of our clients are engineers. And you know, it’s not two appointments. Sometimes it’s three, sometimes it’s four, regardless. It’s about you. It’s about your family. It’s about having an actionable plan that focuses on managing risk, generating income.

We’d like to see income from multiple different places and reducing taxes. That’s how we answer those big questions and help you feel comfortable with where you are, where you’re at at this stage of life, 808 2 2 64 34.

You leave a message because Troy likes his, his people to be home with their family and do the things that they want to do as a family over the weekend. Frank gets back to you and that’s where it starts. 808 2 2 64 30. So Troy was just talking about the importance of. Well, we’re going to talk about some of his YouTube videos that are getting a lot of attention because talking about planning some different scenarios, that’s where we’re going.

Next. This is a retirement income show with Troy Sharpe, the CEO and founder of Oak harvest financial group. Hey, your friend, Sean Hannity here during these uncertain times with the market and constant flux, you need a financial professional with a steady hand who can help protect your assets and your important retired.

Now that’s why it is important that if you’re concerned with your retirement income in particular, you work with someone that is concerned. And I don’t mean conservative in politics, but more importantly, someone who is conservative when it comes to investing in here in Houston, Troy Sharpe, and his team at Oak harvest financial group.

Give him a call now (800) 822-6434. Look, we all want to preserve. But a great first step is to call Troy’s team for a retirement income analysis as 808 2 2 64 34 called Troy sharp, and the team at Oak harvest financial group 808 2 2 64 34 investment services as registered investment advisory firm. Troy sharp is an investment advisor representative and insurance professional investing involves risk, including the possible loss of.

Sean Hannity has been remunerated and is not a Goliath.