To Nvidia, and Beyond!

“Toy Story” is one of my favorite Pixar movies of all-time.  Last week, many AI and semiconductor stocks traded more like “playthings” and toys, than equities.  After rising a cool 85%+ year to date, in less than 60 trading days, Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock jumped another +5% Friday morning to reach nearly $975/s, then quickly reversed course and ended -10.25% off its intraday high.  Volatility is hard to be found at the index level in 2024, but single stock volatility has been high year to date.

 

U.S. stocks rested to start last week after a n aggressive rally to begin the year. Semiconductor stocks leapt higher, rising +2.27% and are now up almost +40% YTD. Tesla stock continues to struggle as it lags its peers, having dropped -40% since last July.  Tesla’s stock declined another -13% last week. Dispersion among the largest tech stocks has widened significantly this year despite the group outperforming marginally. A weaker dollar boosted stocks in Europe and EM, which rose +2.3% and +2.1%, respectively.

 

Oil prices oscillated in the high-$70s for most of the week. The energy market seems to have gotten comfortable with a world in which demand is moderate but OPEC+ is committed to keeping prices above a certain level. OPEC+ decided to extend its voluntary cuts for another three months. Gold surged to a new all-time high nearing $2200/oz as interest rates fell and geopolitical tensions remained high.

 

Last Thursday, Jerome Powell referenced “not far” to when the FOMC should have sufficient confidence in the inflation outlook to pull the easing trigger. Fed funds futures are pricing in almost 1% in cuts this year, starting with the June meeting. The February jobs report showed a further loosening in labor markets with the jobless rate rising to a more than two-year high of +3.9% and wage growth moderating.

 

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Oak Harvest Weekly Stock Talk: Hard vs. Soft Landings, Wall Street Forecasts and what they mean to your money.

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