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2022: Whipsawing Away

The markets continue their “whipsawing away” theme of first quarter 2022.  The S&P500 fell -1.8% last week to stretch its correction to -7.9%. The technology heavy NASDAQ is down about -12% YTD.   On a YTD basis, the S&P 500’s Energy sector (led by old line) has outperformed its other 10…

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Amazing Week and “FacePlant”

At 4500 on the S&P500, the index sits 6% below its all-time highs.  Even with the Nasdaq surging 8% in four sessions last week, it sits down about -10% below its all-time highs.  A one-day -26% faceplant by Facebook/Meta crashed the tech rally party. Amazon wowed investors with the strength…

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2022 Volatility: Week 4

Overview Selloffs like the ones we are currently experiencing are never fun and enjoyable.  These are very normal feelings. The main source of the volatility in market is the Federal Reserve and the prospect of tighter monetary policy. Fortunately, there are several recent historical periods we can look at that…

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2022 Volatility: Week 3

Volatility Overview The team at Oak Harvest has been anticipating and messaging to clients and prospects a rocky start to 2022 since early November.  Selloffs like the ones we are currently experiencing are never fun.  They aren’t fun for you, they aren’t fun for us, and almost everyone I know…

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2022 1st Quarter Volatility

US financial markets are closed today in observance of the MLK holiday.  Overseas markets are broadly higher today with Japan up +.7% and Europe up +.5% while the Hang Seng is down -.7%.  If you believe the numbers (we remain suspect), China’s economy beat expectations in the third and fourth…

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Volatility in 2022

The S&P 500 fell -1.9% last week on the back of continued worries of Federal Reserve monetary tightening actions for 2022.  The 10-year Treasury interest rate yield rose to just near 1.75%, up about 25bps since yields troughed in early December (12/3).  Higher valuation technology stocks led the NASDAQ lower,…

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Year End Recap

The broad S&P 500 index gained 27% in 2021 and closed at an all-time high 70 times, the most since 1995.  The best performing S&P sector was not technology as one would infer from watching TV.  Old-line energy, whose +48% annual gain was its best ever led the year.  Real…

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“Santa Rally” Arrives on Cue

After shaking out bears and nervous hands in early December, the Santa Claus rally arrived, almost right on cue.  Last week ended with a 3-day, 3+% rally that took the S&P 500 to a new closing high at 4726. It was a broad advance as all the major indices closed…

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December Volatility and Sector Rotation as the Fed Tapers Faster

Overview The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday to end what was a volatile week.  The S&P 500 index fell 1.9% last week as worries about the Federal Reserve, inflation and Omicron/COVID-19 weighed on risk sentiment. The market benchmark ended the week at 4,620, down from last Fridays closing level of 4,712. Before…

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Hovering Near All-Time Highs Ahead of FOMC, Omicron replacing other strains?

Overview Last week was a good week in the S&P 500 as investors shrugged off a higher-than expected inflation reading. The markets were led by the Dow last week, which leans more cyclical, as it gained 4%, breaking a four-week losing streak. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite each…

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Omicron, The Fed, and 2022

Overview Equity markets were broadly down last week with the S&P 500 down 1.2%, now placing it about -3.5% off its closing November 5th high of 4697.5. The real weakness in the markets over that period has come in the areas of “growth at any price” software and reopening stocks,…

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Thanksgiving Week; Professionals Caught Offguard

Equity markets fell Thanksgiving week due to a deep Friday selloff in thin holiday trading. Professionals were positioned for a boring Friday in a shortened holiday week. Friday brought a combination of unexpected events, with the appearance and concerns about the spread of the Omicron variant resulting in a “sell…

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