Market Updates - Oak Harvest Financial Group

Searching for a Pivot

October 17, 2022

Regaining ‘Some’ Losses: U.S. equity futures are up 2.50% to 3.0% as of this writing this morning regaining some of Friday’s losses. Friday looked to our investment team like forced UK pension fund margin selling out of Europe at the end of last week. In total, the results last week…

Up week – But More Jobs is Bad

October 10, 2022

Volatility Continues: Equity markets had another very volatile week. Stocks rose sharply to start the week and 4th quarter but succumbed to a higher-than-expected jobs number, a still-hawkish Fed, and higher oil prices. It didn’t feel like it, but the S&P 500 added 1.5%%. The energy was the best group…

3rd Quarter – Good Riddance

October 3, 2022

Sayonara: Since early 2022, stocks have been getting repriced on valuation alongside rising real interest rates which rose again last week. Markets continued their September selloff last week with hawkish Fed talk and disappointing earnings pressuring yields higher and stocks lower. In the equity market, almost all the drawdown…

September More of the Same

September 26, 2022

Seasonal Trends: September has history of being the most difficult month for markets. 2022 continues along those historically bad seasonality trends. Since early 2022, stocks have been getting repriced on valuation alongside rising real interest rates which rose again last week. Equity markets fell further last week with the…

September has been “Real”ly Hard

September 19, 2022

September Shakedown: September has history of being the most difficult month for markets. Right as the real-time data was saying that inflationary was peaking and slowing, August CPI was reported worse than expected. Equity markets fell last week with the core inflation momentum likely to force another 75-basis point increase…

Dollar Peaking would Help

September 12, 2022

Last week, U.S. stocks rose ranging from 2.7% for the Dow Industrials to 4.1% for the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 split the two and gained +3.6%. So far this Monday morning, Treasury yields are lower along the curve, ranging from -2.8 basis points for 5-years to -1.3 basis points for…

“Labor”ing into the Weekend

September 6, 2022

Stocks dropped last week into the seasonally weak long Labor Day weekend. More hawkish talk from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole continued to weigh on asset markets. Consumer staples and utilities posted the lone gains in a defensive week. Last week, U.S. markets were down from -3.0% for the…

Powell Creates Friday Hole in Jackson

August 29, 2022

After reaching an exactly 2-month rally to a 4-month high on August 16, the S&P 500 has lost momentum with an increase in volatility (as expected), ending the week 4.0% lower. Almost all the damage done was done on Friday after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The Nasdaq (-4.4%),…

Decision Time

August 22, 2022

We titled last week’s update “Stall Speed” after a strong 2-month rally from the June 16th lows. Sure enough, equity market momentum fizzled last week into option expiration. While the S&P 500 added 0.1% Friday, it was a very mixed bag. Declines in technology and materials offset gains elsewhere. The…

2 Month Rally to Stall Speed

August 15, 2022

Equity markets continued their 2-month rally last week as hints of “FOMO”, fear of missing out, bubbled to the surface. A softer-than-expected July CPI report was medias easy answer to “why?”. Of course, the markets were already up almost +13%, off their mid-June closing lows BEFORE the government data was…

The Bull is Back?

August 8, 2022

Equity markets gained slightly last week. The post-FOMC rally carried over, but eventually ran into the reality of continued tightening. The S&P 500 added 0.4%. The S&P is up 14% from June 16th June low. However, it was a deep hole to begin the year and it’s still down 13%…

Earnings Tsunami

August 1, 2022

Despite a down start to the week, stocks finished higher for the second straight week, following through on the previous weeks early and massive “breadth thrust”. The S&P500 closed the week and the month of July at 4130, where it stood in early My when the market “broke down”. The…