Hey, I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas. You might be joining us for our news or noise segment that we normally release on Wednesdays. We’re skipping that this week because tonight, at 6:00 PM central time, our whole team is going to be having our 2022 Market Outlook Summit. In the description box below, please click on the link if you want our RSVP or go to our website at OakHarvestFG. From the whole team here at Oak Harvest, we hope to see you tonight.   This event has passed however you can click here to watch the recording of our 2022 Live Market Outlook Summit. SummaryTitleStock Talk | Oak Harvest Market Outlook SummitDescription Join us for our 3rd Annual Investment Summit for a live panel discussion and Q&A regarding current market volatility and what likely outcomes the market has in store over the next few months.

I am Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group, and the question on many investors minds right now is how high will long term interest rates rise and when will they stop moving higher? Their question is, Are we there yet? Does the investment team at Oak Harvest subscribe to the theory that we have entered a multiyear period of higher long term interest rates and rampant inflation like the 1970’s? A period when both interest rates and inflation ran in the double digits? I’ll let you know shortly but Give us a call at(877) 896-0040 and give our investment team a chance to help you with your long term investment allocation, and give one of our financial planning teams a chance to model your cash needs and greed’s into and through your retirement years.  Whether your cash account is yielding a few basis points or a few percentage points, or whether the 10-year Treasury rate is 50 basis points or 2%, the entire Oak Harvest team is here to help you navigate your journey into and through your retirement years. So, the question is are we there yet? Are we there yet on yields? Have long term interest rates peaked? Many investors and the financial news channels are currently panicked about high inflation and a weak labor supply.  These two dynamics have both pulled forward and heightened forecasts for central banks to increase short term interest rates. Currently, the consensus path has jumped from maybe 1 rate hike in late 2022 to 5 or more over the next 12 months. We view these higher estimates as unlikely as tough comps and gravity are likely to become increasing headwinds throughout the second and third quarters of 2022. Both Inflation and growth will face huge battles in 2022 against lapping the peak in government fiscal spending and add-on covid benefits from mid-2021.  Moreover, at the bank level, because of the mid-2021 Delta wave, global credit creation started slowing in 2nd half 2021 and this usually leads a slowing…

  “Cash is Trash”, Is it for the average investor?   “Cash is Trash”, well it is if you listen to billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates.  Mr. Dalio started using this catchy phrase quite a few years ago but became notorious for it when he pronounced it from on high, both literally and figuratively on January 21st, 2020 amongst the business and political elites in the mountains in Davos, Switzerland at the World Economic Forum. And then Covid hit and the S&P500 dropped over -30% in just four weeks. Is cash trash for the average investor? I am Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group, and I wanted address the notion that “cash is trash” for investors other than billionaires or 100 year time horizon endowments and pension funds that Mr. Dalio markets his funds to. I cannot argue with the basic premises behind Mr. Dalios proclamation. He’s makes good arguments for calling cash trash. His basic rational has been that a mushrooming money supply and government money printing caused by our deficits would eventually bring on inflationary pressures and a weakening of the dollar.  After nearly 30 years of deflationary pressures caused by 1) rapid technology adoption,2) outsourcing of our production and labor to cheaper continents, and 3) morphing and aging demographics here in the USA, a combination of Federal Reserve based stimulus and money printing, coupled with supply chain disruptions and an acceleration in baby boomer retirements look to have finally inflected long term inflation rates upward above 2%. Does the investment team at Oak Harvest subscribe to Mr. Dalio’s “cash is Trash” declaration? I’ll let you know shortly, but Give us a call at (877) 896-0040 and give our investment team a chance to help you with your investment allocation, and have our financial planning team model your cash needs and greed’s into and through your retirement years.  Weather your cash account is yielding a few basis points or a few percentage points, The entire Oak Harvest team is here…

I am Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. First off, the team at Oak Harvest appreciates your support and you tuning into our you-tube channel. If you like our content, please refer us to your friends and family. This week’s podcast title is an ode to the phrase every parent loathes to hear from their children on the way to a great family vacation trip? “Are we there yet”? Unfortunately, unlike in the 1970’s and 1980’s when parents used a AAA roadmap “TripTik”, or more recently since mobile phones became supercomputers and we use Google maps or Waze to navigate directions, there is definitely, no one precise and accurate roadmap when navigating financial markets short term. We released our first half 2022 outlook, on December 3rd under the title “Curb your Enthusiasm Yields to a Bull Market Buy”. It can be found on our website at OakharvestFG.com or in video format on our You-Tube channel. Check it out. We hope you become a subscriber to our content. The summary of our outlook is that our team expected our first “correction” of -10% in the cash S&P500 in the early to mid-first quarter of 2022, round tripping much of the 4th quarter 2021 gains. This includes giving up all the “Santa Claus” rally that we were forecasting for the second half of December. Well viewers, if you were perfect, and no one is. I mean perfect like selling the EXACT intraday top on January 4th and buying the EXACT intraday low on January 24th you avoided losses of -12.4% in the SP500. Ok, you aren’t perfect trading intraday? You aren’t that precise of a trader Moving most, or all, of your entire portfolio in and out of the markets? You aren’t the character “Ax” on the showtime “billions” show about hedge funds? You mean it’s the real world and you are human like the rest of us, and “only” (please note sarcasm here), you only sold the end of day closing high and bought everything back at…

I am Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. First off, the team at Oak Harvest appreciates your support and you tuning into our you-tube channel. If you like our content, please refer our channels to your friends and family. We released our first half 2022 outlook, on December 3rd under the title “Curb your Enthusiasm Yields to a Bull Market Buy”.  It can be found on our website at OakharvestFG.com or in video format on our You-Tube channel. Check it out. We hope you become a subscriber to our content. Today we are going to talk about Technology stocks, volatility and diversification. So, I believe it was Mike Tyson who said, “Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face”. And viewers, if your financial plan is holding only technology stocks, or your investment portfolio is undiversified, or it is heavily overweighted thematic technology stocks, or SPAC’s, which are Special purpose acquisition companies and were the rage for speculation in 2021, or growth at any price equities trading at valuations based on over 12-15x revenue, or even pre-revenue, I think Josh Brown calls them “hopes and dreams” names, and Jim Cramer calls them “clown companies”, you are probably feeling like you just stepped into the boxing ring with Mike Tyson when he was in his prime boxing years.  You have just endured a series of heavy body blows and knockout head shots. The month of January has not been kind to your undiversified portfolio.  In fact, the last year has not been overly kind to your holdings as almost every single one of these equity styles peaked on an absolute or relative basis to the sp500 in mid first quarter of 2021. In analyzing the Technology group and Nasdaq index, I am going to use the QQQ, Nasdaq 100 ETF, as the representation. This is the top 100 largest market cap NASDAQ stocks.  It’s weighted by market cap, so Apple is almost 12%, Microsoft 10% and Amazon 7% of the weighting.  It’s about 25%…

I am Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. First off, the team at Oak Harvest appreciates your support and you tuning into our you-tube channel. If you like our content, please refer our channels to your friends and family. We released our first half 2022 outlook, on December 3rd under the title “Curb your Enthusiasm Yields to a Bull Market Buy”.  It can be found on our website at OakharvestFG.com or in video format on our You-Tube channel. Check it out. We hope you become a subscriber to our content. First off, before we get into this week’s topic, which is on “Inflation”, I want to remind viewers, that Oak Harvest is a financial planner. We are an investment advisor whose financial advisors and planners put together integrated financial plans for our clients.  That’s in addition to managing our clients investment accounts.  Why do I lead in with this statement? Because planning a retirement around a higher inflation environment such as the one we are currently in, whether its transitory or not, starts with a financial plan tailored toward your own cash flow needs first, and your greed’s second. There are minor tactical shifts that our investment team can make around the edges, however overall, hedging and planning for changes in inflation starts with planning for it with your advisor. This weeks title?  Inflation sensation. Viewers and long-term clients know, I hate government data and generally look down and frown upon quoting it because, in my opinion, it does not help one at all to manage money.  I’ve discussed why in the past but it’s usually, lagging, stale, not predictive, and often adjusted numerous times, so by the time its announced, the investment markets have already adjusted themselves for the real world.  In other words, by the time you see or hear about it on CNBC, its already priced into market prices. On Wednesday of last week, this is what the news headlines read, “The consumer price index climbed 7% in 2021, the largest 12-month gain…

  I am Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group and it’s the new year. First off, the team at Oak Harvest appreciates your support and we appreciate you tuning into our you-tube retirement planning videos as well as our weekly investment “News or Noise” and “Keeping you connected to you Money” podcasts.  If you like our content, we would welcome you referring our channels to your friends and family. Since early November of last year, the investment team at Oak Harvest has been messaging that the first half of 2022 would not look like 2021. We have stated almost weekly that investors should expect actual realized volatility to rise, and regardless of whether Santa came to town during the second half of December, expectations for 2022, particularly the first half should be greatly tempered. We released our first half 2022 outlook, on December 3rd under the title “Curb your Enthusiasm Yields to a Bull Market Buy”.  It can be found on our website at OakharvestFG.com or in video format on our You-Tube channel. Check it out. And we hope you become a YouTube subscriber to our content. Sure enough, the first few weeks of 2022 have started out with a bang. And that’s not a New Year’s Eve champagne cork “bang” in a good way. For those hoping for a continuation of 2021’s calm market pattern, you are already having to face the reality of 2022, it won’t be as easy this year. So, I wanted to go back to and readdress a topic we have discussed many times in the past, market volatility. And I wanted to go a little deeper into how our team looks at this factor versus the everyday comment you might hear on TV.  And I wanted to discuss how we might use it in determining whether we go fast or slowly in making incremental investment allocation changes for clients.  Let’s call this episode, Market volatility Advanced Training. First off, viewers remember that the spot volatility indexes quoted most often on…

I am Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group and it’s the new year. First off, the team at Oak Harvest appreciates your support and we appreciate you tuning into our you-tube retirement planning videos as well as our weekly investment “News or Noise” and “Keeping you connected to you Money” podcasts.  If you like our content, we would welcome you referring our channels to your friends and family. We released our first half 2022 outlook, on December 3rd under the title “Curb your Enthusiasm Yields to a Bull Market Buy”.  It can be found on our website at OakharvestFG.com or in video format on our You-Tube channel. Check it out. Over the last 3 years of doing investment podcasts with our team at Oak Harvest, we’ve taken on several viewer requested topics.  One that keeps coming up time and time again, is our thoughts on the national debt. Well, today’s topic is my thoughts on just that: so, I’m titling this week’s podcast, The national Debt bomb, $29.5 trillion and growing, it has a shorter fuse each year. So first a quick lesson on deficits and debt.  America runs a budget deficit every year it spends more money than it generates in revenue. When spending exceeds revenue, the US Treasury department issues, or sells Treasury bonds, bills and notes to fund this deficit shortfall.  There are 5 main sources of federal tax revenue.  They are individual income taxes (53%), payroll taxes (32%), also known as social security, corporate income taxes(7%), excise taxes and tariffs. In the short term, borrowing money and deficit spending and its resultant debt can boost economic growth, especially if the country is in a recession.  The federal government may step in and supplement or supplant prior private market spending that has slowed or dried up during a recession with federally funded fiscal programs.   Whether the money goes to fighting wars and buying jet fighters as it did under President Bush for his 2 terms, goes to healthcare spending like Obamacare, “shovel…

Chris Perras: Hey, I’m Chris Perras, chief investment officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group, and it’s New Year’s Eve. First off, the team at Oak Harvest appreciates your support, and we appreciate you tuning in to YouTube retirement planning videos, as well as our weekly investment news or noise and Keeping You Connected to Your Money podcasts. If you like our content, we would welcome you referring our channels to your friends and family. Despite the COVID pandemic and contrary to the ongoing forecasts of impending doom that you might have heard on the TV the past 12 months and in social media, we’ve made it through to the end of the year. We released our first half 2022 outlook on December 3rd under the title Curb Your Enthusiasm “Yields” to a Bull Market Buy. It can be found on our website at OakHarvestFG.com or in video format on our YouTube channel. Given our forecast for a very sloppy and choppy first half of 2022 that could produce the market’s first -10% or more correction from higher levels, I wanted to give our clients and viewers a little more detail into what we are expecting from the markets throughout the first half of 2022. Recall, viewers, that very early on in the COVID recovery, our team’s view expressed almost weekly in our updates was that more than anything else, investors should not, one, fight the Federal Reserve, two, underestimate the collective intelligence and willpower of our science and technology communities in fighting the virus and in limiting both the health and economic impacts. We start 2022 with the Federal Reserve finally slowing and likely reversing their massively easy monetary policy. It was initiated as QE4 as a response to COVID. This should start to slow in the first half of 2022. As longtime viewers know, we like to look at real-time pricing data series, investor sentiment, and forward volatility markets, in addition to other things to put together our forecast. We believe that while history doesn’t often repeat perfectly, it…

I am Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We are an investment management and retirement planning advisor located in Houston Texas. Welcome to our November 26 YouTube, stock talk “keeping you connected to your money”. Well, the holidays are upon us and its time to talk Santa. Whether you believe in the man or not, or celebrate the XMAS holidays or not, historically, the positive seasonal effect on the overall stock markets is a very real historical phenomenon, statistically speaking. Given, our overall 2022 market outlook, and given we are filming this segment before the Federal Reserve met earlier this week, we are not going to try to predict whether this anomaly in the calendar continues this year. And given our longer-term investment focus for clients, we won’t be tactically trading around whether it happens again over the next 2 weeks. However, our investment team did want to put out some data to educate our clients and viewers onto this tactical trading strategy and its historical pattern. And viewers please recall, that year to date, against the calls from unprecedented market action, it’s been a very normal first year Presidential cycle in the stock markets. So here is the data.  While many strategists talk about the strong seasonal tendencies for the month of December, of the 12 months in the year it has the highest percentage chance of being positive, as it is up almost 75%, or 3 out of 4 years. Few strategists break it down and discuss how December, by itself, is a lone, unique month whose intra-month trading pattern is exactly opposite the 11 other months out of the year. What do I mean by this? Unlike all the other month, December shows much stronger returns over the last 10 trading days of the year versus the first 10 days. According to Merrill Lynch data, since 1929, that’s for over 90 years, the first 10 trading days of December have basically averaged a zero cumulative return. The first half of December is a…