What If Part Two: The Two Rules
On this episode of Stock Talk, Oak Harvest answers the question raised on last week’s episode “What if?” What if things AREN’T different this time? What does it mean for the stock market the rest of this year? Join Chris Perras for analysis and discussion of the data! Chris Perras: Hey, happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We’re an independently owned investment and retirement planning advisor located in Houston Texas. Welcome to our September 17th Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. Well, we are in the mid-September in the depths of the third quarter dead zone. Why do we call it the dead zone? I call it this because starting the third month of every earnings reporting quarter of the year, companies and their management teams increasingly enter what is known as a quiet period. This doesn’t mean that things are quiet. No, it means that this is the time of the quarter when direct company-initiated information on how their businesses are doing, well, that information slows and it eventually ends to comply with SEC and federal inside information and Regulatory FD rules. That means investors are left trying to filter out the noise and determine for themselves if and what macro or tangential information might be relevant to their investing time horizon. If anything, the noise level rises. It doesn’t fall during this time period. Additionally, the window for company-initiated stock buybacks, it peaks and begins to decline all through September. As this happens, short-term volatility normally tends to rise as it has the last two weeks. The S&P 500 now sits about 2% to 2.5% below its all-time highs. If you tuned on the TV, you might think the economy and the markets were on the verge of collapse. Last week’s podcast was brief and postulated this question. This question was, what if? What did I mean by that I meant what if two of the simplest rules investing continue to hold true exactly contrary to all…
What If…?
In this special, abbreviated episode of Stock Talk, we ask the question “What if?” As in, “What if…it ISN’T different this time” and “What if…it’s as easy as not fighting the FED?” Chris Perras: Hey, happy Friday. I am Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We’re an investment manager and financial planning shop here in Houston, Texas, and welcome to our September 10th Stock Talk Podcast, keeping you connected to your money. Listeners, this is going to be the shortest podcast I’ve done in almost three years. Why? Because our team here is in the middle of a computer upgrade and security system upgrade, and upgrading the whole office here in the next week or so, so we’re moving. The topic of this podcast is What If, and it’s going to come down to just two questions. Those questions are what if it isn’t different this time, and what if it’s as easy as not fighting the fed? I ask those two questions because those are the two questions, we’ve asked for almost 18 months. In our podcasts, in our outlooks, we’ve answered those questions. I’m not going to answer that question right now. I’m going to do it next week. If you want a preview, all you have to do is come to our website and look at the second-half outlook for 2021, or go to our YouTube channel and look at a video that Tony and I did about two weeks ago. You’ll see what we believe is the outcome. Next week, next Friday, I’m going to go through the data and go through the outcomes that we have. I don’t believe it’s different this time and I still don’t believe it’s time to fight the fed. You have a great weekend, prayers go out to the families who lost loved ones on 9/11, and all those brave soldiers who have fought the war terrorism in the last 20 years. Thank you for your service. Oak Harvest thank you for your service and…
7th Inning Stretch: The Scorecard
A lot of strategists, money managers, and personalities out there love to get on TV and share their ideas about stocks, the markets, and investing with the world. But which of them are worth listening to? Which of them are news? Which are just opinion? Which are entertainment? Join Oak Harvest as we take a look and give our “scorecard” for what’s been good and not-so-good in the world of the financial media. Chris Perras: Hey, Happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We’re an independently owned investment management and retirement planning advisor located right here in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our September 3rd Stock Talk podcast: Keeping you connected to your money. Well, we’re beginning September and we’re entering a period of the quarter that my frequent listeners know I refer to as the dead zone. Why do I call it this? Well, I call it this because starting that third month of every earnings reporting quarter, companies and their management teams increasingly enter what is known as a quiet period. This doesn’t mean that things are quiet. No, it means this is the time of the quarter when direct company initiated information on how their businesses are doing slows and eventually ends. Companies can comply with the SEC and federal insight information laws and Regulation FD rules. Investors are left trying to filter out noise and determine for themselves if and what macro or tangental information might be relevant to their investing time horizon. If anything, the noise level rises. It doesn’t fall during this time. Additionally, the window for company-initiated stock buybacks peak and begins to decline. As this happened, short-term volatility normally tends to rise. Given we’re entering this time period of slower news flow, combined with a stock market rally approaching 17 months in a cycle that is normally about 24 months long, I’m titling this week’s piece 7th Inning Stretch: The Scorecard. Before I get into the meat of this piece, I want to emphatically state, I…
Are We There Yet?
Has the stock market reached “the top?” Is it a bubble? Is it time to sell everything and go 100% to cash?! Oak Harvest addresses this question and more on this edition of Stock Talk! Chris Perras: Hey, Happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We’re an investment management and financial advisor here in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our August 27th Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping you connected to your money. It’s summer and the S&P 500 just hit another new all-time high of around 4,500 earlier this week. That makes it over 50 new all-time highs of the year. Now, this is a much-valued statistic, which once again, was repeated on TV by most strategists as negative. New more all-time highs, man, I hate that as an investor. The title of this week’s podcast, Bull Market Top, Are We There Yet? My answer like it has been all year in my opinion and analysis, no. Why would we be? Almost every week for the past 15 months I’ve been asked by prospects, clients, friends, and family, “Chris, are we there yet?” Like I know, or anyone else knows exactly when the markets will peak. I don’t know. They ask implying that the stock market is overvalued, irrational, or in a bubble. This question is almost always cashed with a very skeptical tone that is code for certainly, the market has peaked, stocks can’t go up anymore from what I hear on TV and read on the newspapers and see on the internet. When are you going to pull the ripcord and go to cash? After looking at our data and tools, my response has been, one, that’s not how we manage money at Oak Harvest and so don’t expect us to go completely to cash when we do see turbulence on the horizon. No one is that good at market timing, including us at Oak Harvest. This is how we do it here at Oak Harvest. If and when our forward-looking indicators say there’s…
Burying the Lede: Fear Sells
On this edition of Stock Talk, Oak Harvest discusses the recent news that the S&P 500 has gained 100% since the 2020 lows and wonders why so many strategists seem to have taken a negative tone when discussing this news. Join us as we explore the topic! Chris: Hey, Happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group here in Houston, Texas. We’re an investment manager and financial planning shop and welcome to our August 20th Stock Talk podcast: Keeping you connected to your money. Turn on the TV, the sky is falling, the economy is cratering due to the Delta COVID variant, the economic data is missing horribly, and get out of stocks, raise cash now because one, seasonality is coming. Two, the Federal Reserve is about to announce tapering, and three, we’ve just rallied 100% the fastest off the bottom of a bear market since the Great Depression. That is what I heard. That is what I read and that is what I saw on TV most of the week in newsletters and written by most strategists in their recent updates. No, I’m not going to get into the weeds and do a quick Google search and review the history and see if these people have been correct in their calls the last 12 to 15 months. No, instead, I’m going to stick to the data they are presenting and see if we are getting the whole story, or instead, we’re getting a biased version based on the parcel data series. Listeners, I call this podcast S&P500 100% gains, burying the lead fear sells. I’m specifically discussing the headline news stories this past week that touted the rally in the S&P 500 since March 2020, as the “fastest 100% rally since the Great Depression.” I must have read 10 of these pieces over the past week. Each one of them had a negative tone. Yes, up 100% returns have a negative tone, I find that amazing. You must not have been invested in equities…
Taper Tantrum? Seasonal Swoon? We think BOTH are unlikely.
Join Oak Harvest for today’s edition of Stock Talk! We cover two “hot topics” in the world of investment analysis – a taper tantrum and a seasonal swoon. Our view is that neither is likely this year, and in this podcast, Oak Harvest explains why! Chris Perras: Hey, happy Friday the 13th. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We’re an investment management and financial planning firm here in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our Friday, August 13th Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. Well, if you don’t want to hear a modified replay of a couple of our recent podcasts, you go ahead and skip this one. Given it’s Friday the 13th, I’m combining two, which we believe are over-hyped fears and concerns into one podcast. That’s Taper Tantrum and Seasonal Swoon. The data says both highly are unlikely. The latest fear-mongering on TV and in newsletters by many is the coming August through October seasonal swoon caused by anything. Choose your excuse, take your pick. A 2013-like taper tantrum, or maybe it’s the recent upturn in virus cases caused by the COVID Delta variant, or the third one I’ve heard recently is the looming debt ceiling battle in Congress. You name a bearish argument for the upcoming two to three months, and I’ve heard it. We remind listeners that most of these strategists and commentators have been parroting the same type warning calls on the markets for upwards of 12 months. I’m not going to rehash the last 80 to 100 years of data that most of these forecasters are using to get their conclusions. Instead, I’m going to go ahead and stick to the data set the Oak Harvest team believes matters. What’s that data set? Well, the data set is the year since QE at the Federal Reserve began. That was in late 2008/early 2009 through current times. Yes, we are using less data rather than more. Why? Because time and time again, this cycle, since the great financial crisis,…
Seasonal Swoon? That’s Not Our Tune!
Oak Harvest takes a look at seasonality in the capital markets, why many analysts are predicting an imminent downturn, and why we believe their analysis flawed! Join us for this edition of Stock Talk! Chris Perras: Hey, good afternoon. Happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We’re an investment management and financial advisor here in Houston, Texas and welcome to our August 6th Stock Talk podcast: Keeping you connected to your money. Despite all the negative TV commentator comments and bearish newsletter writings telling us of the coming confiscation of your cash and retirement accounts or the coming seasonal sell-off, the S&P 500 continues to make all-time highs. The latest fear-mongering on TV and in newsletters by many is, well that’s the coming August through October seasonal swoon. The title of this podcast, August Through October, Seasonal Swoon? That’s Not Our Tune. Our investment team keeps hearing bearish calls on the market due to it being overvalued. We remind our readers and listeners that valuation is a horrible timing tool over weeks, months, quarters and years in many cases. We also remind listeners that most of these strategists have been parroting the same lines for the last 12 months and have been wrong. Over the past two to three weeks, I’ve counted no less than 20 strategists’ calls calling for a coming seasonal swoon. By swoon I’m talking predictions of 8%, 10%, 15%, even 20% down moves in the S&P 500 and the broad indexes. It seems to be the latest market timing call du jour. Merrill Lynch, PNC Bank, and someone at Scandinavia Bank were just on TV recently calling for such a move, lower, all different percentages. No disrespect meant to the Scandinavian Bank, but really, this is a news story? Some obscure European bank projecting is newsworthy? PNC bank, this is almost newsworthy because some of us have heard of this regional bank, but then you read the story and this individual has been clearly wrong all year recommending emerging market…
Newsletters – Great Business…But Their Advice? Exercise Caution!
Oak Harvest discusses whether or not financial newsletters are fiduciaries and then discusses our current view of the markets! Chris Perras: Hey, Happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, chief investment officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We are an investment management and financial advisor here in Houston, Texas, and welcome to our July 30th Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. Despite all the negative TV commentator comments and bearish newsletter writing telling us about coming confiscation of your cash from retirement accounts, the S&P 500 is up 36% in the past year, 27% annualized in the last six months. Even better, we are now halfway through the summer in the stock markets in the normal second and third quarter seasonal slowdown in our economy, because we’re almost 75% consumer-led. While the index is about 10% to 12% above its 200-day moving average, we remain positive for the next six months. Fearmongering over politics, COVID wave, whatever, three, four, five, I can’t tell now, and peak growth are we believe, just that, fearmongering. We’ve covered this topic about once every six months for the past few years, but we are continually reminded that we must keep on educating our followers that newsletter writers are not fiduciaries. They are not required by law or any other governing body to act and provide advice in their reader’s best interest, first and foremost. As such, they literally can and will say anything in order to grab your attention, and for you to sign up and subscribe to their newsletter services for as little as $99 a year. I have yet to find a newsletter writer who actually has run other people’s money successfully during their career. The vast majority of newsletter writers’ bios I’ve read are either academics, economists, retired politicians, or former sell-side brokers. We have included a disclosure taken directly from one of those many subscription newsletters we receive inquiries about every few months. They are not fiduciaries. I’m going to read this for emphasis, and I quote, here we…
