Bad breadth? Not so fast – Zweig Indicator Triggered Historically Rare & Positive
At the end of the first quarter, we title our March 31st video “Marching Higher into April”. In it we laid out 3 reasons we expected a continuation of the overall market upward movement into the mid-second quarter. The 3 reasons we laid out? First, the price charts, which merely reflect the supply and demand for an asset, looked higher. Second, market sentiment and investor risk appetite had gone from positive in late January to quickly becoming very poor at the end of February. This quick flip-flopping by investors is quite common at the start of upward moves. And finally, we once again discussed the positive historic seasonality of April and the second quarter in a 3rd year of a Presidential cycle. A Quick Catchup We are doing a quick catchup on where we stand now, titling this one “when a bear finds better breadth”. I am Chris Perras with Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas and welcome to our weekly stock talk podcast, keeping you connected to your money. Before we get into this week’s topic, please take a moment to click on the subscribe button and click on the notification bell so you will be alerted when our team uploads our latest content. We do have a new location for our Oak Harvest Investment oriented content. You can find it by typing “Stock Talk with Chris” in the Google search window or going to the Oak Harvest You Tube channel and clicking on the drop-down tab labelled “channels” and clicking on “Stock talk with Chris”. Well viewers, the secular bear market crowd, who was very right for the first half of 2022, continue look to be very frustrated since the October 2022 lows and particularly in 2023. As of this taping, the S&P 500 was up —% year to date and the NASDAQ composite has rallied —%. Against the backdrop of bank failures, hawkish Federal reserve talk, increased China/Taiwan tensions, and overall negative news spin on the financial networks. Here’s a daily chart of the S&P500. Here’s…
Grilling the Investment Manager | Easter Sunday
Stock Talk is a weekly podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team’s perspective on what’s happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!
Inflation: Secularly Higher
Retiree and near retiree investors have a multitude of financial worries. One of the first things I learn at OHFG almost 5 years ago, is that while retirement life might be functionally less complex than one’s working days, one’s financial life grows more, not less complex, at or in retirement. Major questions arise like where is my cash flow going to come from to meet my spending needs? When should I take social security? How much is my RMD, required minimum distribution from my retirement savings? What is my optimal income level, so I don’t pay MYGA tax penalties. Will my savings last until I die? And for the last 2 years, at the forefront of investors’ and those on fixed incomes minds is the question, will I be able to keep up with inflation? For this video, I’m going to discuss our thoughts on the future inflation rate over the next decade. No, I’m not going to provide you a static number to plug into your spreadsheets, but I’m going to discuss three factors that I believe will keep the inflation that consumers experience higher than both the Feds 2% goal and the levels we experienced in the 1990’s through 2020 when technology and offshoring helped keep reported inflation below the Feds 2% goal. Before we get into this week’s topic, Inflation Secularly Higher, please take a moment to click on the subscribe button and click on the notification bell so you will be alerted when our team uploads our latest content. We do have a new location for our Oak Harvest Investment oriented content. You can find it by typing “Stock Talk with Chris” in the Google search window or going to the Oak Harvest You Tube channel and clicking on the drop-down tab labelled “channels” and clicking on “Stock talk with Chris”. Every good retirement planning software program has an input for inflation expectations. While I certainly underestimated the height of cyclical inflation peak caused by the global response to Covid, pre-Covid I was…
Marching Into April
For the last month, the investment team at Oak Harvest has been busy. First Charles, James and I were busy digesting 4th quarter EPS reports. Then we were trying to get our hands around whether inflation had peaked enough for the Fed to slow their interest rate increases, stop them, or even reverse them in the second half. Then over the first half of March, much of the economic data came in weaker than most economists expected so our team was trying to understand if the economy was slowing beyond its normal seasonals or too much? Then our investment team and the advisor team at OHFG were out delivering our corporate philosophy of the merits of dividend growth stock investing for retirees and pre-retirees. And of course, squeezed in to our normal daily routines, we were thrown a couple of regional bank-runs out in California and another across the globe in Switzerland, during the second half of March, both culminating in regulator and government actions to save depositors. All of this of course happening while schools in Texas, Florida, and all of Canada were on holiday enjoying spring break. Such is the life of a money manager. And people ask me why I have no hair? For this video, we are going back to discuss the markets. I’m going to spend a little time on the “charts”, which is merely a picture of the supply and demand for stocks, some time on sentiment, or how investors are “feeling” about the markets and their willingness to take risk, and then market cycles and where we sit in the Presidential cycle and seasonals. Before we get into this week’s topic, please take a moment to click on the subscribe button and click on the notification bell so you will be alerted when our team uploads our latest content. We do have a new location for our Oak Harvest Investment oriented content. You can find it by typing “Stock Talk with Chris” in the Google search window or going to the Oak Harvest…
Dividends are Only One Component of a Stocks Total Return | Stock Talk Podcast
Clients and long-time followers of Oak Harvest audio and video investment content will know that in addition to more standard blue-chip growth stocks, our investment team likes to invest in a diversified group of dividend growth stocks. In doing so, many of the portfolios our team manages take on the characteristic of what many in the industry call a “barbell” approach. A group of growth stocks paying little to no dividends with certain characteristics on one side of the barbell or scale and a second group of more economically “stable,” slower-growing companies paying out some of their excess cash flow back to shareholders in the form of dividends. Growth Stocks: Clients and long time followers of Oak Harvest audio and video investment content will know that in addition to more standard blue chip growth stocks, our investment team likes to invest in a diversified group of dividend growth stocks. In doing so, many of the portfolios our team manages take on the characteristic of what many in the industry call a “barbell” approach. A group of growth stocks paying little to no dividends with certain characteristics on one side of the barbell or scale and a second group of more economically “stable”, slower growing companies paying out some of their excess cash flow back to shareholders in the form of dividends. For this video I am going to break this barbell investing approach into 2 separate dumbbells and focus this video solely on the dividend paying investment component, and more specifically dividend growth compounding companies. I am Chris Perras with Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas and welcome to our weekly stock talk podcast, keeping you connected to your money. Before we get into this week’s topic, please take a moment to click on the subscribe button and click on the notification bell so you will be alerted when our team uploads our latest content. We do have a new location for our Oak Harvest Investment oriented content. You can find it by typing “Stock Talk with Chris” in…
Growing Your Retirement Income in a Down Market with Dividends Live Stream Recap
This week we’re doing a recap on last weeks live stream with Troy, Charles and myself, Chris Perras. We talked about growing Your Retirement Income During a Market Downturn with Dividends. In this episode we summarize the video and talk about the highlights. The Recap: Chris: Hey, I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas. This is our weekly Stock Talk Podcast, keeping you connected to your money. Folks, I don’t have a script this week. Last week, we did a live stream. It was Troy, myself, and Charles Scavone, and we covered dividend stocks and how they can be implemented in a retirement plan. We delved into a lot of areas. Troy hit the retirement planning side of dividend stocks and taxes. That was really interesting how you can actually hit very high levels of income and not pay any capital gains tax or income tax if you plan it right. You should check out the video, look for Troy’s segment. Charles and I covered a lot on historically how dividend stocks act in different economic environments, how growth stocks act in different economic environments. I talked a lot about how there’s this broad notion that dividend stocks are all the same. They aren’t. The group here at Oak Harvest on the investment side, we try to look for dividend stocks that can increase their dividends gradually over time. We call them dividend growth stocks. A lot of people call them Dividend Aristocrats, depending on how long they’re increasing their dividends. We looked at those versus a lot of the high dividend yielders. Those are the dividend stocks that pay maybe 6%, 7%, 10% dividends, but over time, their stocks actually decline. You’re getting this dividend stream, and it’s a false sense of security because in any given year, sometimes they’ll cut their dividends and the stock will be down almost 50%. The example I gave was Intel. Intel is a stock that almost everyone is aware of, a semiconductor company. It’s a…
