I am Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group, we are a retirement planning and investment management advisor located in Houston Texas. Welcome to our 2nd Half 2023 Market Outlook, YouTube, Stock Talk “Keeping you connected to your money”.  Its title is a follow up to our first half piece. I’m making it easy and titling our second half 2023 outlook – “The Old Normal part 2, Down then Up”.  We had expected a strong first half rally in the S&P 500 led by growth stocks as inflation concerns abated and real interest rates dropped.  And that’s what we got. We published our first half target of 4300 in the S&P 500 last December when the average was trading near 3800.  We called for lower volatility, lower inflation, and higher stock prices as many well known strategists were calling for a “new high volatility regime”, market crashes, replays of the dot.com bubble collapse, or at least a return and retest of the October lows of 3600. We refuted the likelihood of those bearish outcomes in many of our weekly YouTube and website releases. Those negative forecasts did not materialize and many of those bears are still saying they weren’t wrong; they were just early.  Up over 20% in the S&P 500 off the lows in 8 months.  Up over 35% on the Nasdaq since the lows.  The bears were not wrong.  They were just early.  Really?  FWIW, equity strategist Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley, who is widely quoted across financial media, does brilliant work in my book.  However, if you check the tapes, and we do, his forecast was off by a 1000 S&P 500 points in 2021. That was a call that missed by over 25%. Yes, he was correct in 2022 sticking with his pessimistic tone. However, once again in the first half of 2023, he has been woefully wrong and is now off by almost 1500 points in 2023, that’s 50%, versus his Jan 4th call for the S&P500 to see 3000 in 2023…

For the last few weeks, with the markets having rallied almost exactly 8 months off the October 2022 lows, we’ve discussed our view that with FOMO, the fear of missing out setting in June, it was our teams view that it was finally time for the markets to top out for summer. 2 weeks ago our video title was “SP500, It’s summer time for a rest”, and last week it was on the topic of “FOMO and the Wrong way to Invest”.  Investors, it’s summer. The markets have rallied for exactly 8 months off the early 4th qtr 2022 lows, it’s time for markets to rest and pullback. Nothing disastrous, but then again not an enjoyable time to come if you are watching your statements daily, marking your net worth to market every day, which is a bad habit and will only lead to poor investment returns and anxiety. This week’s content, titled “July 4th weekend, where we stand”, is just some additional detail into our thoughts from here for the next few months. Before we get into the content, please take a moment to click on both the subscribe and notification bells so you will be alerted when our investment team uploads our latest content.  Or better yet, give our OHFG team a call at ———— to speak to our team and set up an initial consultation with an OHFG advisor to discuss your personal financial situation. Frequent viewers of our content know that our team was quite bullish on the first half of 2023 heading into the year in spite of the ongoing, almost nonstop, negative rhetoric on TV and in the financial press. Our 1st half outlook, penned in December 2022, titled “The Old Normal” had an S&P forecast of 4300 on the cash SP500 when the markets were trading around 3800. Think way back to 4th quarter of 2022.  Here’s a monthly chart of the SP500 to visually jog your memory of where we were and how far we’ve come the last 8 months. Recall back…

  If you are a client or prospect of OHFG, you might wonder what members of the investment team here do on weekends or even on a holiday like Father’s Day.  This CIO sleeps in until 6AM on Sunday and wakes up thinking about our clients, the markets, and “what’s next”. He then sits down over a few cups of coffee with the preliminaries of Canadian Formula One Race on and writes what will likely be the talking points for the OHFG outlook for the second half of 2023. Before I get into this week’s content, titled “Summer Stall or Squall”, please take a moment to click on both the subscribe and notification bells so you will be alerted when our investment team uploads our latest content.  Or better yet, give our OHFG team a call at 877-896-0040 to speak to our team and set up an initial consultation with an OHFG advisor to discuss your personal financial situation. Frequent viewers of our content know that our team was quite bullish on the first half of 2023 heading into the year in spite of the ongoing, almost nonstop, negative rhetoric on TV and in the financial press. Our 1st half outlook, penned in December 2022, titled “The Old Normal” had an S&P forecast of 4300 on the cash SP500 when the markets were trading around 3800. Believe it or not, I have had “Payday” June 15th and option expiration June 16th circled on my trading calendar for many months with a question mark and notation labelled “top? It was exactly 8 months from mid-October 2022 market lows and its pivot higher. YTD Recap A little year to date recap of the 2023 markets and some of its milestones. -The S&P500 index is now up more than 26% from its bear market low in October 2022. -The S&P500 and Nasdaq, while still near -10% off their ATHs, have both hit 52-week highs and their highest levels since Tax Day in April 2022. – After a disastrous performance in 2022 for the…

In the early 2000’s a prominent investment management firm launched an advertising campaign that irks me today as much as it did back then.  It’s title, “…the Right way to invest”.  The advertiser stated this emphatically and confidentiality as if there was one and only one way to invest and they had the correct recipe that no one else did.  Investors, this is utter nonsense, and if you hear your investment manager claiming they do it right and everyone else does it wrong, you had best pack up your money and find another manager as there is no single “right way to invest”.  There is no absolute in the business of managing money in public markets.  In my opinion, the only “right way” is to try to meet the goals and objectives of your client base while setting realistic expectations up front.  And with that sermon behind me, I put away my soapbox and I give you this week’s video title, “the Wrong way to Invest, chasing fads, chasing styles, and chasing performance”. Having been entrusted by clients to professionally manage large sums of “other people’s money, also called “OPM”, to actually pull the trigger, to manage risk and reward not just on a spreadsheet or in a report, but in the real public equity markets for almost 30 years now, it’s safe to say I’ve made my share of mistakes over the years.  In fact, when an institutional salesperson solicits myself and OHFG now days about their new or improved financial product, it’s safe to say that the vast majority of the time, I am quick to pass on the new thing.  I often tell prospects “I’ve learned enough ways to lose money over the last 30 years, I don’t need another one”. Investors, turn on the TV and you’ll see almost every strategist, newsletter writer, or analyst give you their opinion on “how to make money in stocks and the markets”.  Almost no one focuses on what not to do.  Over the course of my career, a career…

The OHFG investment team laid out our first half out look back in late 2022.  Back then we called for declining volatility in the first half of 2023, a return to growth stocks over value stocks, and a rally back to 4300ish on the S&P500.  Back then and almost weekly, the rhetoric by many strategists on TV was “inflation was out of control”; we were headed into a 1h23 recession; stock volatility was not only “too low” but “wrong” and that the S&P500 would retest its October 2022 lows, call it 3500 any day, week or month now.   Strategist after strategist proclaimed the recession was eminent and earnings estimates were way to high and the markets were overvalued. We disagreed with this viewpoint, calling our outlook “the Old Normal, Economic cycles return”.  We published a first half 2023 target of 4300 when the markets were trading around 3800 at the end of 2022.  Even with our data sets and history on our side, we got loads of pushback on this outlook as the negative headlines around inflation, Federal Reserve Hawkish rhetoric, the headlines of war in Ukraine, and Covid lock downs in China were rampant on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and Fox News. S&P500 Returns Here’s a weekly chart of the S&P500 as of June —. So far, October of 2022 has remained the market’s low for the last 2 years.  There has been no lower low.  There has been no retest of the June 2022 lows or the October 2022 lows. Since October of 2022, over the last 7.5 months, the S&P 500 has made a series of higher weekly lows and higher weekly highs to rally back to almost 4300 today.. Here’s a monthly chart of the SP500.  It’s been rocky road since Dec 202 when the S&P500 peaked at 4800 4-6 weeks after the Fed first alluded to interest rate increases in 2022. The S&P500 has held the monthly uptrend that’s been intact since the 1q 2009 Great Financial Crises lows, and the S&P 500 is trying to…

The OHFG investment team laid out our first half out look back in late 2022.  Back then, the rhetoric was “inflation was out of control”; we were headed into a 1h23 recession; and the S&P500 would retest its October 2022 lows, call it 3500, shortly.  Strategist after strategist proclaimed the recession was eminent.  We disagreed with this viewpoint, calling our outlook “the Old Normal, Economic cycles return”.  We published a first half 2023 target of 43877-896-004000 when the markets were trading around 3800 at the end of 2022.  Back then our investment team got a lot of pushbacks on this outlook as the negative headlines around inflation, Federal Reserve Hawkish rhetoric, the headlines of war in Ukraine, and Covid lock downs in China were rampant on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and Fox News. Here’s a weekly chart of the S&P500 as of May 26th going into Memorial Day weekend. So far, October of 2022 has remained the market’s low for the last 2 years.  There has been no lower low.  There has been no retest.  The S&P 500 made a series of higher weekly lows and higher weekly highs to rally back to 4210. Here’s a monthly chart of the SP500.  It’s been rocky road since Dec 2021, but we held the uptrend that’s been intact since the 1q 2009 GFC lows, and the US markets are trying to regain the upward momentum. Viewers, would you be surprised if I told you that the S&P500 is around where it was in June of 2021, two years ago, flat.   Would you be surprised if I told you the S&P500 is also sitting about where it was at the end of May last year in 2022, around 4200.  Spot on flat for a year and flat for 2 years? Interesting to note?  The Nasdaq composite is basically flat for both the 1- and 2-year period as well, albeit with more volatility along the way.  And guess what other index is flat for both the one and 2 year period, yes, the more value…

At an August 12th, 1986 news conference then President Ronald Reagan gave a speech on the perils of big government. He stated, the following, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the Government, and I’m here to help”. Here is a brief cut from that speech.https://www.reaganfoundation.org/media/128649/newsconference2.mp4 Before we get into this week’s topic, “Bigger government, worsening outcomes usually for your investments”, click on both the Subscribe button and notification bell below so you will be alerted when we upload new Oak Harvest content.  Or even better give us a call at 877-896-0040 to set up an initial meeting with one of our retirement planning specialists. A New Software Frequent viewers know our investment teams general thoughts on big government spending programs or regulatory intervention on your investments.  We’ve previously discussed that when it comes to your investments we are most often on the side of Ronald Reagan.  When big Government and politics meet, things tend to become very inefficient.  Layers upon layers of bureaucracy and friction are usually introduced to otherwise smoothly functioning markets. Quite often, when big government steps to an industry to solve a problem, complexity or costs rise so high that instead of helping a situation, more often harm is caused instead due to lack of accountability or budgeting or both. Last week, major news outlets released a story on how the current White House administration is looking to use some of the $80 billion appropriated for an IRS upgrade under the Inflation Reduction Act to create a government run Tax-preparation option. To create an alternative to the software and services run by Intuit, H&R Block, Jackson Hewitt, TaxSlayer and others. Proponents of the government idea argue that these privately run and owned tax preparation companies are charging “middle-income” Americans for what they think should be a “free” public service.  Many liberal leaning former government officials like have been quoted saying things like “It’s problematic that we instead provide it through these private corporations that prey on people and extract profits from…

  Retail investors around the world turn on the financial news channels and listen to strategist we have never met; we read newsletters written by writers who have never managed money; young investors scour Redit chat boards for ideas from people that have no names; and we often subscribe to investor services, sometimes for entertainment, but most often with the hopes of improving investment returns. Most often we are presented with people’s individual opinions, hopefully based on research, not facts.  People we have never met, but who are presented as experts in their fields.  How often has that worked out for you and your portfolio?  Everyone has the right to voice their opinion about the stock and bond markets or our economy, but how often has listening to these opinions helped your portfolio?  As modern-day investors, we are bombarded with noise because information is now readily available at our fingertips, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week by way of smart phones and computers. Even with all this information available, remember there are no guarantees in the public stock and bond markets. Before we get into this week’s topic, “MOVE lower, Stocks Higher?”, yes even bond volatility is looking lower not higher, at that’s a good thing on the “Good/bad” scale, please take a moment to click on the subscribe button and click on the notification bell so you will be alerted when our team uploads our latest content. We do have a new location for our Oak Harvest Investment oriented content.  You can find it by typing “Stock Talk with Chris” in the Google search window or going to the Oak Harvest You Tube channel and clicking on the drop-down tab labelled “channels” and clicking on “Stock talk with Chris”. US Debt Default US Debt default concerns. Geopolitical strife domestically and globally.  Bank runs in Europe and regional bank runs here in the US. I have never heard so many people so uniformly negative and confident in their economic opinions of forthcoming doom as I have this year. …

The News Calling for Economic Doom: Should you listen? Investors, turn on the TV and the financial news channels, watch for a few hours and soak in the opinions being passed along as news and you too will convince yourself a very bad recession is imminent.  Geopolitical strife domestically and globally.  Bank runs in Europe and regional bank runs here in the US. And the kicker, still “rampant inflation” if one listens to the parade of PhD economists and sell side strategists on the financial channels or writing in newsletters.  I’ve been managing money professionally for almost 30 years now and I have never heard so many people so uniformly negative and confident in their economic opinions of forthcoming doom.  Ignore the fact that almost all of them have been wrong on the markets the last 9 months and missed calling the “recession” we had in the 1st half of 2022.  Ignore that many of these same people have been calling for a recession to begin in late 2022 since mid-last year.  It’s may 2023 and we are still waiting. Recession in the first half of 2022, Chris what are you talking about, you may ask.  Well, I was taught early in my career that 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth was a recession. Pretty simple.  No after the fact stamp of approval needed by a group of economists employed in taxpayer funded buildings.  No waiting around for 3 or 4 quarters to find out.  And during the typical recession stocks usually declined -25-35%. Reality What happened to stocks in the first half of 2022 as we printed two negative quarters of GDP growth? The S&P500 dropped -25% in nominal terms and almost -35% in real terms into our summer 2022 lows. Remember viewers that the NBER, National Bureau of Economic Research, didn’t declare the economic collapse we had during the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2020 as recession until July of 2021, almost a year after the event.  You want to wait around for them?  Investors, trying…

  If you are watching CNBC, Fox business news, or Bloomberg TV all day, most likely, high on the list of your concerns is worrying about stock market volatility. Many of our most vocal clients and prospects tend to contact us more often when they “feel” higher volatility in the markets or hear about it on the news channels.  We are going to spend this video discussing volatility and the difference between what investors may be feeling emotionally, and what is actually happening in the markets.  When the talk of volatility comes on the TV news networks, I like to go back to a quote from the movie “Princess Bride”.  Inconceivable, as Ingo Montoya said, you keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means.” I find that most commentators on TV use the word “volatility” in this way. Before we get into this week’s topic, “volatility, yes it’s been collapsing in its normal cyclical way, inconceivable to many”, please take a moment to click on the subscribe button and click on the notification bell so you will be alerted when our team uploads our latest content. We do have a new location for our Oak Harvest Investment oriented content.  You can find it by typing “Stock Talk with Chris” in the Google search window or going to the Oak Harvest You Tube channel and clicking on the drop-down tab labelled “channels” and clicking on “Stock talk with Chris”. We’ve previously discussed many ways to measure market volatility or many indexes that try to track market volatility.   We have discussed the difference between realized volatility and implied volatility in the past.  Measures of implied volatility we have discussed previously include the MOVE Index, which is a Bank of America index that measures Treasury bond market volatility.  We like to follow this index as a measure of stress in the collateral markets. Why? Because if the “safest” and most liquid collateral in the world, US Treasury’s are trending higher, it forces leveraged players to sell…