Everyone in the financial industry is busy posting their 2024 market forecasts. In fact, even though we have yet to print year end 2023 statistics on equity markets and see how far off they were for 2023. most strategists have already done it, I guess given how poorly most of these strategist outlooks proved in 2023, most forecasters don’t want people focusing on their bad calls.  Maybe these strategists are thinking these kinds of things.  “We called for a recession in the 1h2023, or was it the 2h2023”?  or a market “crash, for October, “1987 style”.  Oops, neither happened, don’t bring those forecasts up.  Or others are probably thinking, we were off by 1000 S&P500 points? Calling for S&P 500 3000 and investors to “gorge” at that level or calling for months for at least a retest of October 2022 3500-3600 levels as stocks rallied in the 1q2023!  Of course, looking back, none of those events happened. Move along, nothing to see here folks!  Maybe, if we get our 2024 outlook up in November, well maybe people will forget our bad 2023 calls. The investment team at OHFG likes to release 6-month outlooks as a lot can change in 6 months.  However, most of the time, at the end of these pieces we drop in some longer-term thoughts looking out a year to 15 months. Our second half outlook for 2023 had a year end target on the S&P 500 of between 4730-4800, near ATH’s. It was released back in July and called for “down then up”. Here’s the link to that content.https://oakharvestfg.com/2023-second-half-market-outlook/ With so much content and data available to produce these outlook pieces, I’m going to keep it slow.  I’m releasing a small part each week. Last week I gave you S&P 500 = 5000, “Inconceivable”, no it’s just more of the Old Normal as Savita Subramaniam, the head of equities and quantitative strategies at BOA/Merrill Lynch Securities posted her 2024 outlook to much financial press fanfare.  Remember viewers that’s her year end 2024 forecast, we’ve had that…

It’s December 1st and the time of the year when sell side brokerage firms and their strategist teams put out their forecasts for 2024.  Recall that most of these large firms have more than one “strategist” and I’ve counted some of the big banks with upwards of 10.  They generally take on the old Fidelity model of publishing all their targets so inevitably, at least one of the myriads of forecasts will “prove omniscient” in the year ahead and they can advertise “we nailed it”.  Our team has felt compelled to join in on this exercise for the last 5 years to help give our clients an idea on how we differ from more widely known financial firms. We typically put out our forecasts and broader market outlooks every 6 months as the world can twist and turn more than once a year. No, I’m not going to formally do that today, and I’m skipping the data and chart dump I usually incorporate into my videos this week. Just before Thanksgiving Savita Subramaniam, the head of equity and quantitative strategies at BOFA Securities, that’s the old Merrill Lynch, put out her outlook for 2024 in a 70+ page report loaded with data.  Savita is one of about 5 strategists at Merril our team follows, largely because many of them are quantitatively based. Her report’s title: “Five Reasons for S&P 500 @5000” in 2024.  And investors, you would have thought she discovered the process of alchemy.  CNBC splattered this across their newsfeed for days and on other financial networks and website short sellers and the forever in the bear camp went berserk with negative comments and internet posts. While this week is not our 2024 outlook release, frequent consumers of my material should not be surprised by this week’s title: “S&P 500: 5000, Inconceivable! no it’s just more of the “Old Normal”. If this number 5000 for the S&P 500 for 2024 looks familiar to consumers of OHFG investment content and research, it is.  It is the number I’ve discussed for…

It’s the day after Thanksgiving and I hope you’ve recovered from a great holiday with family and friends. The “Old Normal” keeps playing out in 2023, almost to the week and day.  That was the title of our 2023 market outlook penned back in December of 2022 and that is what we continue to see year to date in the stock markets regardless of the doomsday calls throughout 2023. Given the timing of this taping, the data is 3 or 4 days old but here is a chart of the S&P 500 post November option expiration on Friday Nov 17th. If it looks familiar it is.  It is near the exact same pattern and outcome one would expect under the “old normal” we have discussed all year.  Here’s the overlay of the S&P500 with same period since our October 2022 lows overlaid with the October 1998 lows through the internet bubble peak in 2000. Investors we’ve compared these periods all year as it was also an aggressive Fed rate increase, followed by a pause and then additional rate increases in 2000.  If you didn’t live through it, here’s two articles from March 2000.  You’ll see very similar wording to our Feds current language.  The first article is about their willingness to reaccelerate interest rate hikes in the first quarter of 2000.   Here that link is: https://www.wired.com/2000/03/fed-well-keep-hiking-rates/ and the second article is one refuting the Fed’s need to combat rising wages back then https://www.epi.org/publication/issuebriefs_ib136/   Both articles sound eerily similar to current ongoing Fed speak.  In fact, they sound so close you might think we are living in a parallel universe. This week’s title is one of “Giving thanks in 2023”. Despite all of the global economic and social angst in the world in 2023, the team at OHFG forecast a return to the “old normal” for financial markets almost exactly a year ago in 4th quarter of 2022 for our 2023 outlook.  For 11 months, that’s what we’ve gotten.  I’m giving thanks for helping educate our OHFG clients and…

Permabear stock market appearance, doomsday economic and black swan market calls, break out the 1987 stock market crash cart replay, and it’s the “end of times” zombie apocalypse calls garner 10-100x the attentions, clicks, and views in the financial world than those of “it’s not different this time”, history rhymes and repeats , we’ve seen this before, or we are back in the “old normal”.  Just pull up the number of views my videos have gotten the last 3 years, while being largely correct in both time and price on most twist and turns on the levels of the stock market since the Covid lows in the late 1q2020 versus those of the myriad of largely wrong but loud and promotional negative financial community.  Folk’s fear, while statistically usually wrong and financially unprofitable to long term investors, sells well in the financial markets. The “Old Normal” keeps playing out in 2023, almost to the week and day.  That was the title of our 2023 market outlook penned back in December of 2022 and that is what we continue to see year to date in the stock markets regardless of the doomsday calls throughout 2023. The S&P500 bottomed and turned up right on cue for a fourth quarter rally., Friday October 27th, at the end of institutional tax positioning.  That was at the end of the final full week in October. The OHFG investment team had discussed this outcome for months, all the way back in June and July. Why? Because investors, like it or not, financial news swirl or not, that what the “old normal” looks like in the financial markets. Three weeks ago, my OHFG Stock Talk was “Its make-or-break time,” and the week of the markets low on Friday the 27th it was, “Is it really different this time”? Here are the two links to those videos if you missed them. (insert links to both prior videos). Last week, we updated real-time data we watch that we have been sharing with our clients and followers, in advance, over…

Much to the chagrin of perma stock market bears, the “Old Normal” keeps playing out in 2023, almost to the week and day.  It looks like the bottom and upturn for a 4th quarter rally came right on cue. The markets looked to have made a low on Friday October 27th, at the end of institutional tax positioning, at the end of the final full week in October. The OHFG investment team had discussed this likely dynamic for months, all the way back in June and July, and its likely outcome for the market turning back higher in very late October and early November. Folks, most everyone on financial TV says, “we don’t have a crystal ball”, and then goes on giving their opinion predicting what the future might hold for the markets, sectors, or individual stocks.  Investors, by definition, that is the meaning behind having crystal ball.  However, nowhere in the definition does it say that the predictions seen when looking into a crystal ball will be accurate, particularly when it comes to the financial markets. We do our best with limited information, making decisions, based on our experience and knowledge, serving our clients in the best manner we can.  The future is always hazy and uncertain. Two weeks ago, the title for the Stock Talk was “Its make-or-break time,” and last week it was, “Is it really different this time”?  Here are the two links to those videos if you missed them. (insert links to both prior videos). This week, I am repurposing and updating some of the content and real-time data we watch, and we have shared with you, in advance, over the last 4 months during the summer correction in the stock markets.  For fun, I am titling this one, “Santa has a Calander and a Bloomberg”. Please take a moment to click on both the subscribe and notification bells so you will be notified when our investment team uploads our latest content. Or better yet, give our OHFG team a call at 877-896-0040 to speak…

October 27th closed out the first four weeks of a normally weak and volatile October on a down note. Earnings reporting season was in full gear and the OHFG investment team was busy listening to, reading through, and analyzing management earnings calls, transcripts, and financial reports.  In between all the earnings news and sometimes chaos, Troy, Charles and I found time to film a YouTube Livestream on the evening of Thursday, October 26th titled “Navigating Market Volatility”. Before we get into this week’s content, which is a brief recap of that livestream, please take a moment to click on both the subscribe and notification bells so you will be alerted when our investment team uploads our latest content.  Or better yet, give our OHFG team a call at 877-896-0040 to speak to our team and set up an initial consultation with an OHFG advisor to discuss your personal financial situation. Over the 70 minutes of livestream, Troy Charles and I covered a lot of topics and content, some pre-submitted questions, and some real time questions from our viewing audience.  I want to personally thank all the attendees for dropping in and watching, and for those who were unable to, here’s a quick recap of topics and timing when they were covered if you want to jump to specific content. Over the first 10 minutes, we covered recent interest rate moves higher and what it might mean for your bond and fixed income holdings.  We paid particular attention to the topic of “duration risk” in the bond market and how all bonds are not created equally, even those issued by the same company, institution, or government.  How the bond’s maturity, or when the bond comes due for principal payment, can have a material impact on the path of the price of the bond over its term, even though your interest income or coupon the bond pays stays the same. For those of you interested in our bond and interest rate discussion, this might be an interesting segment from the Livestream for…

October option expiration week ended Friday October 20th, and closed on a down note. Both short term volatility as measured by the often mentioned, untradeable VIX index, and volatility futures which are traded, both spiked to a new five and a half month high, last seen on May 4th.  Not totally unexpected, but nerveracking to investors and nerve wrecking for others. The general explanation for the sell off was to blame a quick rise in market-based interest rates caused by continued hawkish Fed speak, rampant federal government deficit borrowing and refinancing causing Treasury market supply to exceed demand, and stronger than expected economic data for the 3q. In addition, while the OHFG investment team discussed with our subscribers and clients, for over 12 months, since the market low in October 2022, the importance of “real interest rate” to stocks and bonds, that is the risk premium embedded in the Treasury bond markets, the wider financial press and Wall Street strategists finally came out in mass the last few weeks talking about “real rates”, and not the inflation component of bonds, being critical.  Better late than never?  Not always. Last week’s title was “its make or break time”, and this week, given how busy our team is with earnings reports, I’m keeping this video short and titling it, “is it really different this time”? Please take a moment to click on both the subscribe and notification bells so you will be alerted when our investment team uploads our latest content.  Or better yet, give our OHFG team a call at 877-896-0040 to speak to our team and set up an initial consultation with an OHFG advisor to discuss your personal financial situation. The S&P500 has been trading, down and to the right in a very normal seasonal fashion since the mid-July 4600 peak. Here’s a chart of the S&P500 since last Octobers low. You’ll see the overall market has gone nowhere since mid-June of this year and closed almost on top of its 200-day MVA a week ago. We have now…

Turn on the financial news, and almost daily you are libel to hear “this is the most important” interview, economic release, Fed meeting, earnings period, or employment report of the year.  Almost daily, the financial channels try to hype the importance of some little tid bit of information, playing on their viewership and investors emotions. If this is the most important piece of information of the year, I better not change the channel.  I might miss something key to my money, they want to lead you to believe.  More often than not, the piece of information or opinion being presented as news, is insignificant economic dribble and investors are best ignoring these segments. That said, I am going to use this phrase for the second time in the last 12 months.  This week, the week that we’ve just completed by the time this is released on Friday October 20th and next week are probably the most important weeks for your money for the next 6 to 12 months.  And with that statement, the title of this week’s episode, is “it’s make or break time”. Please take a moment to click on both the subscribe and notification bells so you will be alerted when our investment team uploads our latest content.  Or better yet, give our OHFG team a call at 877-896-0040 to speak to our team and set up an initial consultation with an OHFG advisor to discuss your personal financial situation. Post the strong first half move in the overall stock market into mid-July, the broad markets as measured by the S&P500 have been trading, down in a very normal seasonal fashion just as our investment team laid out back in late June in our Oak Harvest video S&P500 4300+, “it’s summertime for a break”. Here’s a chart of the S&P500 since last Octobers low. You’ll see the overall market has gone nowhere since mid-June of this year.  Zooming out further the overall S&P500 is now flat for 2 years since June 2021.  This dynamic is NOT unusual for…

Post the strong first half move in the overall stock market into mid-July, the overall markets have been trading, down in a very normal seasonal fashion just as our investment team laid out back in late June in our Oak Harvest video S&P500 4300+, “it’s summertime for a break”. Here’s a chart of the SP500 since last Octobers low. You’ll see the overall market has gone nowhere since mid-June of this year.  Zooming out further the overall S&P500 is now flat for 2 and 3 months since June 2021. We’ve covered much of our 4th quarter market outlook previously over the last 3 months during this normal summer stall and retreat in numerous YouTube videos, Livestreams, and weekly Market update pieces that the Oak Harvest investment team released.  Please take a moment to click on both the subscribe and notification bells so you will be alerted when our investment team uploads our latest content.  Or better yet, give our OHFG team a call at 877-896-0040 to speak to our team and set up an initial consultation with an OHFG advisor to discuss your personal financial situation. During times with little fundamental company news flow, such as this, our investment team gets more questions on macro and news channel topics.  I want to briefly address a number of these issues and topics this week so I’m titling this episode “Quick Hits”. The first quick hit, our investment team received numerous questions on the impact of the government shutdown on the markets. Believe it or not, historically these shutdowns have not mattered to markets much at all.  Recall, most of the time, markets perform better when members of Congress are NOT in session and are instead on “recess” or vacation.  Historically, the data says the same during government shutdowns. Since 1995, there have been 5 government shutdowns. The S&P 500 traded positive during each of those periods with an average return of +3.2%. The most recent government shutdown, from Dec 22, 2018, to Jan 25, 2019, which was the longest in the last…

Post the strong first half move in the overall stock market into mid-July, the overall markets have been trading sideways to down just as our investment team laid out back in late June in our Oak Harvest video S&P500 4300+, “it’s summertime for a break”. We’ve followed it up almost weekly with additional content on how historically normal 2023 has been so far, what, when, and why our investment team expected weakness in the 3rd quarter markets, risks to the 4th quarter, and when and at what level we expected the markets to finally regain their footing and upward trajectory. The title of this week’s episode is “Readying for Fall”.  Before we press onward, please take a moment to click on both the subscribe and notification bells so you will be alerted when our investment team uploads our latest content.  Or better yet, give our OHFG team a call at 877-806-0040 to speak to our team and set up an initial consultation with an OHFG advisor to discuss your personal financial situation. The S&P 500 has gone net? Nowhere in a sloppy and choppy manner since Wednesday June 12th.  As of this was written the SP500 has been flat for 3.5 months.  As the OHFG investment team warned clients and prospects in early summer videos in late June, we were set to enter a sloppy, choppy time frame.  Call it a trading range, call it a general consolidation, call it a lull, but history and the data said we were set to frustrate many latecomers to the 9-month rally off the October 2022 lows. I must remind investors this was the day after semi-retired hedge fund billionaire, Ray Dalio, having missed almost +20% off the October 2022 lows said it was time to buy stocks. Here’s the daily chart of the S&P500 for the last 18 months. The short-term good news? The S&P 500 was already down almost -300 points and -6.25% over 2 months as of this writing. The markets are now getting oversold in terms of price, and…