Weekend Update, November 10th, 2025
A “Dip” Shows Its Face
Index, Sector, and Asset Performance
The S&P 500 fell -1.6% in the week with a sharp sell-off in technology and AI-related stocks pulling the index down. Investors’ concerns over the government shutdown slowing economic heightened investor caution and increased short term volatility. This morning’s rally to start the week comes as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both tested their 50-DMAs on Friday.
Stock futures are pointing higher with the S&P 500 +1% on progress toward ending the record-long shutdown, now in its 41st day. Over the weekend, the Senate advanced a spending measure that will still need to be amended and then approved by the House to restore funding. The SP500 Index had its worst week since early April’s “Liberation Day” market decline.
Per Goldman Sachs 1-Week asset returns:
A rarity during the last year, energy stocks led sector gains with a +1.6% gain, driven by rising crude oil prices. An unexpected draw in U.S. inventories and tensions in the Middle East caused oil to trade back above $60/bbl.
Technology sector led declines with a short-term AI reset. The sector fell -4.2% last week with year-to-date leaders in technology and artificial intelligence infrastructure stocks such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft, AMD, and Palantir experiencing significant weekly declines. Bubble talk in AI names continues to run rampant despite strong earnings.
Comm service stocks also fell -2.4%, mainly due to heavy selling in leading social media, streaming, and digital advertising stocks. Advertising revenue softness in a few “3rd tier social media platforms”, caused blanket selling in the group. Meta/Facebook (-4.1%) and Alphabet/Google (-0.8%) make up over a third of this sector and had the largest negative impact.
Year to date of the 11 SP500 sectors, all but one has gained. While the week was down, the technology sector has a YTD +23.9% gain, which is +5% more than the second-place sector Utilities. Yes, Utilities, largely led by big gains in unregulated energy providers. Consumer Staples is the long-distance negative sector YTD with a -2.4% loss, as many of these companies continue to exhibit the worst of all worlds, lower unit volumes and higher costs.
Per Goldman Sachs Global YTD sector returns; it’s not just the USA this year.
US 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.1%, but this morning Treasury prices are weaker with the 10-year yield up +3 bps to 4.13%.
Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary
While there is hope that the Federal Government will reopen this week, the Federal Government continues to be shut so we will only get private economic data. We have a host of Federal Reserve speakers on Tuesday and Wednesday. CPI, retail sales, PPI reports, jobless claims reports, and employment reports are still postponed by shutdown. Preliminary state-level claims data are likely available. The main sentiment index dropped for a fourth consecutive month to 50.3 in November from 53.6 in October, the lowest reading since June 2022.
Wall Street’s current consensus EPS estimate for 2025 S&P 500 earnings per share is $270/share, up +11.1 percent from last year’s $243/share. Looking out to 2026, the Street’s current $306/share estimate implies +13.3 percent earnings growth next year.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) had the largest percentage drop in the technology sector, with its shares falling -23%. In communication services, shares of Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) fell -9.5% as the company reported a wider-than-expected fiscal Q2 loss and delayed the launch of its Grand Theft Auto VI game.
3Q earnings season slows but continues this week. Earnings calendar includes Cisco Systems (CSCO), Walt Disney (DIS) and Applied Materials (AMAT).
Commodities and Currencies
Oil and its products rallied back over $60/bbl on larger inventory draws.
The US dollar has been rallying, not falling, for about 7 weeks and sits above 99.
Gold is surging this morning with a gain of +2.5% and back above $4,100.
Bitcoin and other cryptos tested MVAs last week and are rallying this morning with Bitcoin back above $106K and Ether above $3,600.
OHFG Stock Talk
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
