Weekend Update, June 9th, 2025
V-ictory and V-Formation
Index, Sector and Asset Performance
The S&P 500 put in a V-bottom on April 7th and with its +6.15% rally, May wrapped up its best month since November 2023. The index ended the week at 6000. For the week, the S&P 500 gained +1.50%, bringing its year-to-date return to +2% and placing it about -2.5% below its all-time high. Much to the dismay of many retired hedge fund billionaires commenting on CNBC and other networks, the S&P 500 has not made lower lows, retested its early April levels under 5000, or worse. Spot volatility has collapsed.
The “Magnificent Seven,” including Microsoft +2.2%, Nvidia +4.9%, and Apple +1.5%, were major contributors to the technology sector’s gains last week. Microsoft and Nvidia, which together make up over a third of the tech sector, were outperformers. Meta Platforms led the advance in communication services, climbing +7.8%.
Consumer Staples continue to be a lagging sector declining -1.4% as a rotation out of defensive sectors, mixed company outlooks, and declines in Procter & Gamble -3.5%, Coca-Cola -1.0%, and Walmart -1.3%.
Apple will be holding its annual Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC) this week. Jensen Huang delivers his keynote Wednesday at Nvidia’s GTC Paris conference. Markets are also watching the U.S.-China trade talks in London, with a focus on rare-earth and semiconductor export controls. Trump said a Fed chair nomination is coming soon.
Year-to-date asset Returns from Goldman Sachs.
Overall breadth has been strong as eight sectors are up year-to-date, and only three, Consumer Discretionary (-6.8%), Energy (-3.4%), and Health Care (-2.6%), are down. The only other sector that’s underperforming the S&P 500 this year is Technology (1.1%). Five sectors are up over +5%. The best-performing sector is Industrials, which finished last week up almost +10% for the year.
The 10-year Treasury ended at 4.51%, while the 2-year yield rose back above 4%. The employment data erased about 10 bps of expected 2025 Fed easing.
Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary
Friday’s employment report was a bit stronger but once again overstated. The U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs (cons. 126,000). Gains were concentrated in services sectors largely backed by government programs, such as education and health. Goods-focused sectors like manufacturing and retail saw job losses. Prior job gains were once again revised lower. Here’s more good job recap from Zero-hedge.
May Payrolls Rise By 139K, Beating Estimates, But Report Shows Sweeping Labor Market Weakness
US Labor Market JOLTed By Sharp Rebound As Job Opening Rise, New Hires Surge
Costco reported a beat and rallied +3.1% on the news. The stock is near all-time highs. Dell Technologies posted mixed results and initially slipped -2.1% in response to it. CrowdStrike dropped despite a double beat. Dollar Tree reported a double beat but fell -8.4%.
Earnings this week are expected from companies including Oracle and Adobe. Economic data this week will include the consumer price index and producer price index.
Commodities and Currencies
Oil prices look to have finally troughed on stable US economic demand and OPEC output increases being factored in. OPEC raised output by 200,000 per day in May, which could be followed by more aggressive hikes in the coming months as Saudi Arabia looks to strong-arm OPEC partners.
Gold rallying back toward $3,300/oz.
Bitcoin declined but held at $100,000.
Oak Harvest Weekly Stock Talk
President Trump versus Fed Chair vs. Jerome Powell, Interest Rate Smackdown
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
