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No Bubble: New ATHs — Throttling it Back

Market Update: 2021-04-12: No bubble. The S&P 500 rose 2.7% last week to more new all-time highs (ATHs). Its year-to-date gain stands close to 10% on the back of easing U.S. virus restrictions and improved economic data. This is in sharp contrast versus the draconian — and wrong — Q4…

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“Marching” to New ATHs

Market Update, 2021-04-04: Marching to new all-time-highs (ATHs). Despite the hyped headlines and supposed market volatility, stocks finished the first quarter at more new ATHs. With a return of 5.7% for the S&P 500 for the first quarter, 2021 ranks third in first-quarter performance during the last 10 years. With…

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Significant ATHs; Depressed Press…

Market Update: Significant. Overall equity markets rose last week, much to the dismay of the financial press amongst a further collapse in both spot market and future month volatility. The S&P 500 rose 1.6%, with more defensive and rate-sensitive leadership, utilities and consumer staples leading the pack as interest rate…

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Unchanged Fed; Markets Exit Dead Zone

Market Update. Equity markets were marginally lower last week as the Federal Reserve was unchanged and stuck to the script. However, short term, longer-term interest rates continued to rise. The S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, with year-to-date leaders, energy and banks leading the declines. Telecom and consumer staples (defensive low-beta sectors)…

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Bear Case Sounds Smarter, Rarely Correct

Market Update: Bull, not bear. Last week, the S&P 500 rose 2.6% last week to new highs and is now up 5.0% year-to-date. How can that be?  Long-term interest rates are rising.  The 10-year Treasury yield is slightly lower this morning at 1.62% after extending its year-to-date advance to 70…

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Again, Equities Ignore Bears — and Rise

Market Update: Again, equity markets ignore “smarter” bearish arguments — and rise. Overall equity markets rose last week. Yes, you read that correctly. Overall, measuring from the close of Friday, Feb. 26, to the close of Friday, Mar. 5, the S&P 500 was up. Listen to the day-to-day financial news…

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Bonds in Red; Economy Gaining

Market Update: Equities pullback, but economic recovery should gain speed. Global equities were down across the board last week with the NASDAQ (-4.9%) leading the way. Most sectors were in the red with the biggest losses in health care (-8.2%) and tech (-8.1%). Gains in banks (+1.5%) and consumer discretionary…

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Cyclical Inflation; Real Growth Surges

Market Update: U.S. economic figures surge with real growth. Inflation is cyclical. The S&P 500 futures are pointing 0.7% lower after the index fell a similar amount last week on concern about higher interest rates with almost all TV “pundits” discussing inflation concerns. After jumping 13 bps last week, the…

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Bond Market Moves: Entirely “Precedented”

Market Update: Precedented. The S&P 500 rose 4.6% to new highs in its largest weekly advance since November amid positive earnings results, easing Covid constraints, falling virus caseloads, improved economic data and the potential for much more fiscal stimulus. Long-term interest rates continue to rise. The 10-year rate rose last…

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David vs Big-Hedge-Fund Yields Short-Covering Rally

2021-02-01 Market Update, by Chris Perras. Sideshow Bob – GME, BB, BBBY, AMC Equity markets were down last week, starting strong but reversing Wednesday on increased volatility caused by hedge fund delivering due to raids on their short positions including GME (GameStop), AMC (AMC Entertainment), BBBY (Bed Bath), and BB…

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Of Chicken Little, Bubbles and Crashes

2021-01-25 Market Update. Equity markets were mixed last week, starting strong but wobbling into the weekend. Concerns about COVID-related lockdowns and the effectiveness of vaccines against new strains of the virus slowed overall gains. The S&P 500 rose 1.9%, led by telecom and technology, while banks slumped. The Nasdaq led…

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Where is the “Double-Dip Recession”?

2021-01-18 Market Update. U.S. markets are closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% last week on weaker economic data (initial jobless claims by +181,00 incrementally last week and retail sales missed forecasts) and equity hedging in front of this week’s Inauguration Day on…

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