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Weekly Market Updates

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New Year: Mortimer Sells

As the OHFG investment team expected, the major averages started 2024 with a losing week, snapping a nine-week winning streak.  The excuse de jor was the Federal Reserve walking back some early 2024 interest rate expectation cuts.  The S&P 500 fell -1.5% last week, with gains in “boring” health care…

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New Year, Same Worries

The S&P 500 rose marginally for the 9th week in a row. This is the longest winning streak since 2004. The S&P 500 was up +0.3% last week. Utility stocks were the best performing sector +1.2% while Energy was the worst-performing (-1.4%). The cash S&P 500 index ended Friday’s session…

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2023: The “Old Normal” Ends, as expected

Equity markets are closing out 2023 on a strong note, nearing all-time highs, as our investment team had forecasted early in 2023. The excuse for the last 2 months’ rally is a sharp decline in Treasury yields leading to the prospect of 2024 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Fears…

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Oak Harvest: Weekend Update Ho Ho Ho 12/18/2023

Ho Ho Ho

Equities rallied in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement.  Treasury yields declined further last week.  In the Fed’s statement, Chair Powell’s press conference and the dot plot, the Fed is done raising rates, they’re not looking at a recession, the job market will remain firm through the forecast…

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Oak Harvest: Weekend Update `Into the Home Stretch 12/11/23

Into the Home Stretch

The S&P 500 rose for the 6th week in a row.  This is its longest rally since November 2019, as markets waited for this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and inflation reports. The cash S&P 500 index ended Friday’s session at 4,604, up from last week’s close of 4,594. The week’s…

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Oak Harvest: Weekend Update November Ends on a High Note 12/4/23

November Ends on a High Note

The major indices finished up on the week led by small cap indexes such as the Russell 2000.  The S&P 500index rose +0.8% last week, its fifth straight weekly gain.  The S&P 500 concluded its strongest month in more than a year and began December on a high note. The…

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Oak Harvest: Weekend Update Thanksgiving 2023: Old Normal Plays on 11/27/2023

Thanksgiving 2023: Old Normal Plays on

The major indices finished the holiday-shortened week up for the 4th week in a row.  Some softer economic data bolstered hopes that interest rate relief could be just around the corner.  Many smaller countries have already begun rate cut cycles.  The Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 each hit…

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Approaching the Holidays and a Pause

This Monday morning, markets are marginally higher on the back of technology and energy stocks rallying.  Last week’s bond-friendly data included a decline in retail sales ahead of the holiday shopping season.  This should cause a sharp deceleration in Q4 real GDP growth to the 1-2% level from the grossly…

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Santa Nails the Pre-Xmas Sales

Santa Nails the Pre-Xmas Sales

Santa Claus shopped for stocks at the end of October and beginning of November post institutional tax positioning.  The S&P 500 index rose + 1.3% last week, almost all the gain coming on Friday, led by the technology and communication services sectors.  The S&P 500 is up +15% YTD and…

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Weekly Market Update: Santa Claus Shops Earlier than Amazon Prime Users 11/6/2023

Santa Claus Shops Earlier than Amazon Prime Users

Santa Claus shopped for stocks at the end of October, post institutional tax positioning.  The S&P 500index rose + 5.9% last week, the DJIA +5.1, and NASDAQ Composite +6.6%, marking the markets largest weekly increase of the year.  Investors remember that large percentage moves happen most often when the markets…

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Weekend Update, October 30th, 2023

Even though interest rates rallied last week, concerns about escalating conflict in the Middle East led to another week of downside in most equity markets.  The S&P 500 fell -2.5% on the week and is now down   -14.2% from its December 2021 record highs.  The 10-year interest rate fell -8…

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Weekly Market Update - 10/23/2023

Weekend Update, October 23rd, 2023

The S&P 500 index closed on its lows for the week.  The S&P 500 index fell -2.4% last week, ending its October 2 week winning streak. The market benchmark is down month to date, as comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell raised investors’ concerns about interest rate policy.  The…

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