On the 10/25/2019 episode of Stock Talk, CIO Chris Perras takes a look at the recent earnings seasons, what we have learned, and our view for the coming weeks. Chris Perras: Good morning. My name is Chris Perras. I’m Chief Investment Officer here at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas. Welcome to the October 25th edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping you connected to your money. I bring to you a brief review of the third-quarter earnings reports that we have seen so far, what we have learned, and what we expect in the week ahead. Rightly so, this podcast is entitled, What I Learned in the Markets the Past Two Weeks. As of this morning, the S&P 500 sits almost exactly at 3,010. We were about halfway through the third-quarter earnings reports, and it’s been a mixed bag so far in the third quarter, as it normally is 9 out of 10 years in both the economy and the stock market. At the risk of repeating myself for the 100th time so far this year, this is a normal year in the ongoing 10-year bull market. We laid this out in early January, and it continues to play out. What have we learned so far in the third-quarter earnings, through companies like Taiwan Semi and Lam Research, we learned that semiconductor spending is picking up in cellphones, data centers, and equipment. That’s great news and it’s an inflection point, however, industrial spending in the same area remains weak. Is this new news to the team at Oak Harvest? No, it’s not. We learned that the drop in long-term interest rates that has occurred during the past year hasn’t hurt financial companies’ earnings, like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, as much as the market had expected, and it was already factored into the stocks. We learned that the industrial and manufacturing economy is weak due to the ongoing trade issues with China, labor union strike at auto manufacturing at General Motors, and weakness in Europe due to Brexit. These…

CIO Chris Perras discusses the latest happenings in the stock market and goes into detail on the performance of small cap stocks. Chris Perras: Good morning. My name is Chris Perras. I’m Chief Investment Officer here in Houston, Texas with Oak Harvest Financial Group. Welcome to the October 18th edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected To Your Money. I bring to you the third straight fourth-quarter podcast for 2019 that is optimistically titled, It’s a Normal 4th Quarter, Here Comes The Sun. As of this morning, the S&P 500 sits almost exactly at 3,000. This is against a constant financial press commentary of how bad the economy is, how overpriced stocks are, how uncertain politics are making things, and how we have never seen anything like this before in history. These are flat-out wrong across the board when it comes to the behavior of the financial markets in 2019, and the team Oak Harvest continues to see the markets heading considerably higher through the fourth quarter of this year into early February of 2020. The timing and the level of the S&P 500 as we sit here at 3,000, has been highlighted by the team at Oak Harvest all year. We first laid this out in early January of this year, and once again during our second half outlook penned in late June. Year-to-date, this is a very normal year in an ongoing 10-year bull market. The economy and stock market structure look nothing like the 1930 depression times being touted for the past two years by billionaire hedge fund managers yet again today. I must ask, who is managing money nowadays that was alive and managing money during the Depression? Heck, why don’t we go all the way back to the Civil War for a comparison? We avoided that depression-era outcome in 2008 and 2009 due to both Federal Reserve and federal government actions, and I want to thank both entities for their programs. We continue to see much higher year-end and new all-time highs…

CIO Chris Perras discusses Oak Harvest’s views on the latest market happenings, and covers why 2019 has been a normal year in a bull market, and why the firm remains optimistic as we enter Q4, 2019. Chris: Good morning. My name is Chris Parris. I’m Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group here in Houston, Texas, and welcome to the October 11th edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast, Keeping You Connected To Your Money. I bring to you the second of our fourth quarter podcast for 2019 and it’s another optimistic one titled, Pivoting Higher. A bear trap snaps shut on the shorts.  As of this morning, the S&P 500 sits around 2950. The market has experienced high short-term volatility this week on the back of the Daily News reports on the ongoing China trade negotiations. The financial press has been out in mass the last week calling for bear markets, head, shoulder to tops, and 10 to 20% sell-offs. All of these calls on the S&P 500 have come near 2850 to 2900 on the S&P while the markets were already down and already going sideways for 20 to 21 months. This is where the bears sit, and this is most likely where the bears are trapped. Higher short-term volatility is 100% normal. It pivots higher in the stock market. Think all the way back to the week of the election in November of 2016. The timing and the level on the S&P 500 pivoting this year right now higher, is almost exactly when and where we first laid out in early January of this year, and once again, during our second half outlook penned in late June. We are now exiting the dead zone. We’re heading into the third-quarter earnings reporting period. The team here at Oak Harvest isn’t expecting heroically positive results for most companies, and commentary for most management teams will undoubtedly be very cautious. Why? Because it was a normal slow summer and the economy has been slowing for six quarters. However, stock…

On the 10/4/2019 of Stock Talk, CIO Chris Perras covers our optimistic view for the remainder of 2019, and dives into our reasoning. CIO Chris explains why we could be looking at a pivot-up in the markets as we head into Q4 2019. Chris: Hey there. Good afternoon. My name is Chris Perras, I’m Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group here in Houston, Texas. Welcome to the October 4th edition of our weekly Stock Talk podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. I bring to you the first of our fourth quarter podcast for 2019. It is optimistically titled, The Wait is Over, The Pivot Higher is our Hand. As of this morning, the S&P 500 sits around 2,900. The market pulled back sharply to about 2,855, 2,875 earlier this week on the batch of weaker economic data in the dead zone of the third quarter and early fourth quarter. The timing and level on the S&P 500 pulling back in the late third quarter have been highlighted all year by the team at Oak Harvest. We first laid this out in early January of this year and once again, during the second half outlook that we penned in late June. Year to date, this is a very normal year in an ongoing 10-year bull market. That being said, we expect the rest of the year to be normal as well. By normal we mean that we expect third-quarter earnings to be generally disappointing and analysts to express generally negative comments, but this is the good normal. We believe that after 20 to 21 months of estimate cuts, this data is now factored into the overall markets. The markets basically peaked with the S&P 500 at 2,875 in February of 2018, over 20 months ago, on the positive effect and optimism of the Trump tax cuts. This was the time period of peaks earnings revisions up, peak analysts target revisions higher, and peak money flows into the stock market. Wall Street analyst’s targets and earnings estimates were being…

On the 9/27/2019 edition of Stock Talk, CIO Chris Perras covers recent happenings in the market, and respond to themes that the financial media has been covering. Chris: Hey, I’m Chris Paris, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Welcome to the September 27th edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected To Your Money. This week’s podcast is entitled Fiscal Year End, It’s Two Weeks and Counting. As of this morning, the S&P 500 sits around 2975. The almost 200-point up move that has taken place since mid-August has been 100% correlated with rising, not falling long-term interest rates. The entire sustained up to move in the S&P 500, this cycle has come during periods of rising, not falling long-term interest rates, as it foreshadows higher growth, higher inflation, or higher both and those things eventually drive higher earnings. This week, the financial press is focused on two big news events and themes. First is the new democratic push to investigate President Trump and launch an impeachment procedure against him. Secondly, the other event that happened this week is the collapse of the IPO market or the initial public offering market, most notably the failure to get public WI works and the recent poor performance of companies like Uber, Lyft, and Peloton that have all recently come public in the last couple of months. Addressing the second topic first, these poor-performing IPOs are virtually meaningless to the overall public stock markets. In fact, one can argue that these stocks performing poorly in the public markets is actually a good thing for the overall market. As capital that is flowing into this hyper-growth, massively negative free cash flow companies should be better allocated to less speculative ventures, at least in the public markets. Private equity investors are much better suited to bear the risk-reward of these types of growth vehicles. Biggest news event of the week was the release of the news of the president’s conversation with a Ukrainian leader and the democratically controlled House of Representatives launching…

CIO Chris Perras covers recent market action, its relation to interest rates other economic factors, and reaffirms the firm’s year-end outlook. Chris: Good afternoon. This is Chris Parris with Oak Harvest Financial Group. I’m the Chief Investment Officer here, and welcome to the September 20th edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected To Your Money. This week’s podcast is entitled Summer Storms Are Clearing Blue Skies Ahead. Before I start, I wanted to offer the entire team at Oak Harvest thoughts and prayers are with our Houston neighbors, her friends, and family affected by this past week’s storm, Imelda that dumped between 10 and 44 inches of rain throughout Houston in less than three days. Having had over six feet of water in my house during Hurricane Harvey, almost exactly two years ago. I can personally attest to the emotional and financial repair that will be needed post this event. My thoughts and prayers are with everyone. As of this morning, the S&P 500 is at around 3,010 nearing a new all-time high. The almost 200 points up move that has taken place in the S&P 500 since mid-August has been 100% correlated with anyone. It is then correlated with rising, not falling long-term interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen over 30 basis points during the past month. The entire sustained up to move in the S&P 500. For the past 10 years, this cycle has come during periods of rising not falling long-term interest rates, as it foreshadows higher growth, higher inflation, or higher both, and eventually higher earnings. Earlier in the week, spot prices on oil spiked almost 30% on the back of the tax in Saudi Arabia on their oil production by Iran. Many of the financial press have made this out to be another event that would cause our economy huge problems. However, they fail to mention that oils have become much less of an input to the cost in the US economy over the past 20 years and that we are…

Chris Perras discusses the ongoing rotation in the markets and the anatomy of a traditional bull market on the 9/13/2019 edition of Stock Talk! Chris: Hey, good afternoon. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Welcome to the September 13th edition of a weekly Stock Talk podcast: Keeping you Connected to your Money. This week’s edition is an ode to the great Fiddler on the Roof song, Tradition Tradition. In keeping with that song, I’ve titled this week’s episode, Rotation Rotation. Almost no one in the financial community talked about it except for us about two weeks ago. What was that topic? It was Market Sector Leadership. Once again, now two weeks in a row, the leadership in the US stock market is an almost perfect reflection of a traditional bull market. What has led the up move again this week? Higher volatility, more economically sensitive groups like industrials, financials, old-line technology stocks, like semiconductors, emerging markets, and small-cap stocks. These are currently considered value stocks by most investors. What they share in common is that they are helped by either faster inflation, higher growth, or both. Listeners, I’ve mentioned a single factor multiple times this year as a coincident indicator. I ask you, what financial instrument can we look at in real-time to see if this economic development is beginning to play out? Anyone? The answer is long-term interest rates, more specifically, the direction and trend in long-term interest rates. Long-term interest rates troughed August 15th in the S&P 500 troughed at 2,825. For two weeks, long-term interest rates trended sideways to slightly higher and the S&P 500 bounced between 2,825 and 2,925. Two weeks ago, long-term interest rates began to trend higher on better economic data, an uptick in the economic surprise index, and growing optimism over a China trade deal. The 10 year Treasury yield has risen 40 basis points the last two weeks and what is the S&P 500 done? It has zoomed back to 3,000, 3,025, nearing an all-time high. I…

CIO Chris Perras covers recent market action, explains sector leadership in a traditional bull market, and discusses whether or not forecasts from multibillionaire hedge fund managers are trustworthy on the 9/6/2019 edition of Stock Talk! Chris: Hey, I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group, and welcome to the September 6th edition of our weekly Stock Talk podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. Honestly, I have nothing really new to report. It’s the same old song and dance. Summer’s almost over and we have seen the normal summer volatility with the VIX doubling from about 12 to 24 into early August, from their volatility now sits around 16. This week we saw a thaw in the China and US trade talks when they decided to meet in early October to make progress in their talks. This is pretty much exactly in line with the outlook the team at Oak Harvest has laid out all year. A slowdown in the second and third quarters with the stock market making no net progress till after we exit the third quarter dead zone and pre-announcement time period in late September and early October. I will say that if listeners want an idea what a bull market does look like, what asset classes, groups and sectors lead and what lags this week’s leadership is almost a perfect reflection of a traditional bull market. What has led the up move this week? Higher volatility, more economically sensitive groups like industrials, financials, old-line technology like semiconductors and small-cap stocks. This is where the value lies in today’s market, but where investors have fled since August of last year. What groups have lagged the market the second half of this week? Those are real estate, staples and utilities. Those are the low volatility groups that everyone has been hiding in for over a year. I do have to reflect on the daily guesstimates at the percent chance of an economic recession in happening, which is one of the most ludicrous things I’ve heard….

CIO Chris Perras covers the latest action in the markets, and discusses what we expect for the rest of Q3 and Q4 in 2019 — and why our outlook still remains bullish. Chris Perras: Good afternoon. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Welcome to the August 30th edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. I’m going with the title, The Final Countdown, for this week’s episode. First, I want to prepare my listeners for one of the longest run-on sentences I’ve ever written and that you’ve probably ever heard. Contrary to the daily negative calls for -10% correction in the market, which hasn’t happened, and earnings recession, which also hasn’t happened 2700 or lower on the S&P 500 nope, that hasn’t happened yet either. A daily guesstimate at that percent chance of an economic recession happening, which is one of the newest and most ludicrous things I’ve heard almost daily as if one can be that precise as to the percent chance of a recession on a weekly or monthly basis. Now something publicized in the press from a negative technical chart pattern referred to as a negative megaphone pattern, which the only thing that has been used as a megaphone in the third quarter is the constant negative drone and spin in the financial press about how bad things are and how we’ve never seen a stock market like this before. The S&P 500 sits as of today at 2940. We expect as we enter the dead zone starting next week, four more weeks of a narrowing wedge in stocks in the market, that is, four more weeks of up and down. Our second half outlook first laid out in mid-June, called for a 5% to 6% pullback in the S&P 500 in the third quarter. That outlook can be found on our website at www.oakharvestfg.com under the investment management section or by Googling Oak Harvest 2019 Outlook. The peak to trough pullback in the closing cash S&P…

On the 8/23/2019 edition of Stock Talk, CIO Chris Perras discusses what’s happening in the markets in Q3 2019, what we believe may be the reasons behind it and what we see happening for the rest of the year. Chris Perras: Hi, my name is Chris Perras, I’m Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Welcome to the August 23rd edition of our weekly Stock Talk podcast: Keeping you Connected to your Money. The third quarter continues as Oak Harvest had expected and as we first laid out in both our first half and second half market outlooks published back in early January and early June of this year. We continue to see the pause in this year’s rally and volatility in the third quarter as merely the seventh-inning stretch in an ongoing bull market. You’re watching and listening to the financial news every day, your head is probably spinning, you’re confused and fearful at every new story and every 2% to 5% move in the stock market. Even after 25 years of managing money professionally, I find these periods both frustrating, non-occasion, and nerving myself. However, while uncomfortable, listeners, so far, it’s a normal summer in the economy and a normal summer in the stock markets. Our second half outlook first laid out in mid-June called for a 5% to 6% pullback in the S&P 500 in the third quarter. It can be found on our website at oakharvestfg.com under the investment management section or by googling Oak Harvest 2019 Outlook. Against almost all market calls made on TV just two weeks ago when the S&P was around 2,840 for three or four days, for further downside risk in the market, the S&P 500 this morning sat at around 2,925. The peak to trough pullback and the closing cash S&P 500 for the third quarter has been 5.9%, which is a hair short of our expected maximum drawdown of 6% in the third quarter. We expect this trading range on the S&P to continue to consolidate for another…