Senior Portfolio Manager James McFarland guest-hosts the 6/7/2019 edition of Stock Talk and discusses the recent market action and how it relates to Oak Harvest’s view going forward, and covers the concept of “Market Breadth.” James: Good afternoon, everyone, This is James McFarland, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Trading for Oak Harvest Financial Group, and welcome to the June 7th edition of Stock Talk, Keeping You Connected To Your Money. Chris Parres is out of the office today, so I’m privileged to be able to join you all again and host today’s episode. Each week here on Stock Talk, we share with you our views on the market, what we see happening now, and what we see coming down the pipe for the economy and markets. We also focus on education, sharing with you what we’ve learned about how the stock and bond markets work and what makes them tick. I’m recording this on June 7th, 2019 at 9:30 AM Central Time, and today we’re going to take a brief but focused look at what’s been going on in the market this week, focusing on one particular element, something that we believe is important but that you may not have heard a whole lot about if you’ve been relying on the financial media for updates as to what the market is doing. We’ll also touch on how what’s happening this week ties into our view for the rest of the year and where we think things are headed, but before we really get going, there’s a little background material that may be good for you to take a look at. First, if you haven’t read our first-half outlook for 2019, I would strongly encourage you to go and give that a quick read. If you’ve read the piece, you’ll know that we expected a relatively strong first quarter followed by a pullback in the second quarter in the market. Second, if you listened to the April 18th edition of Stock Talk, the last time I hosted the show, you…

CIO Chris Perras devotes an episode to discussing the Fixed Income and Bond markets, and explains how different economic factors impact both bond markets and the stock market. Chris Perras: This is Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Welcome to the May 31st edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. This weeks’ episode is littered with references to one of my favorite movie series of all time. This was the creation by Ian Fleming way back in 1953 of James Bond. The James Bond character has now appeared in a series of 26 movies and I’ve been managing other people’s money for 26 years. I’m going to call this one My name is James Bond. I’ve chosen this title because I want to focus most of this podcast on a segment of the financial markets we rarely discuss, the fixed income and bond markets. Why am I addressing this topic? Because since last October, when the Federal Reserve announced that they were not close to being done raising rates, and our president stepped up his tariffs and attacks on China and our other trading partners, tariffs, which short term are nothing more than additional costs and taxes born by US consumers, the long data treasury market as measured by the yield and the 10-year Treasury note has rallied over 100 basis points from about 3.25% yield to 2.25% yield, over the last eight months. We talked about this unforeseen rally in the bond market when we laid out our first half outlook on January 4th. It can be found at oakharvestfg.com/2019-first-half-outlook/. I want to read a quote from that report. “Finally, we think that a third unforeseen reason will surface late in the second quarter, refocusing investors on slower global growth and concerns of a recession. Convenient reasons may include European Brexit, oil instability, watching additional auto tariffs, or federal deficit worries.” “Regardless of the cause, we think that a short-term rally in bonds and in the dollar in the second…

CIO Chris Perras recaps the year-to-date action in the markets and previews our view of what to expect over the coming weeks. Chris Perras: This is Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Welcome to the May 24th edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. This week’s episode is primarily a recap of the year-to-date stock and bond market action, including the recent downturn since Easter. I’m going to call this one, Financial Markets Spoiler Alert, We Called This on January 4th. Before I get into the meat of this podcast, I want to personally thank the millions of people who saw the final episode of the Avengers Endgame released by Walt Disney company about four weeks ago. First, let me thank you for spending over $2 billion so far, viewing the movie, and helping the Disney stock reach an all-time high of about $140 recently. Secondly, and most importantly, let me thank you for not ruining the ending for all those fans who waited days or weeks to see the movie. The second quarter dead zone continues. Time-wise we are now almost exactly halfway through the period that we predicted way back on January 4th in our First Half Outlook. I urge listeners to go back to our website and read and review our First Half 2019 Outlook, for the markets. It can be found at www.aokharvestfg.com/2019firsthalfoutlook. I’m going to read to you a few excerpts from the piece, first, from paragraph three of our outlook on what we see happening in the first half of 2019. Quote, “The investment team at Oak Harvest Financial Group believes the overall market returns from 2019 will come largely in two very short time windows, with the first being a sharp recovery in the first quarter of 2019.” That worked out pretty well as the S&P 500 actually rally to over 29, 25 into Easter. As far as why this would happen, our rationale back then was the following, contrary to most market pundits,…

CIO Chris Perras takes a look at the current market circumstances, how Oak Harvest responds to changing market conditions and argues that, yes, the financial media is still “dazed and confused”! This also features a new “I don’t want to invest now because…”! Chris Perras: I’m Chris Perras, the chief investment officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. This is the May 17th edition of our weekly Stock Talk podcast: Keeping you Connected to your Money. Each week, we share with you our views on the markets, try to educate you on how the stock and bond markets work. This week’s episode is taken from the Led Zeppelin live performance album released in 1976 entitled The Song Remains The Same. This album featured such hits as Stairway to Heaven and Dazed and Confused. Both of these songs and their titles perfectly describe the financial press’s commentary in reaction to the financial markets since Easter. Just three short weeks ago, the loudest commentary expounded in the financial press was that we were in a Goldilocks environment for stocks and a vulnerable, perfect environment for a stock market melt-up. That was in an S&P 500 2,925 after the market had rallied 600 points in 3 months. If you believe these strategists and mouthpieces, we were close to riding a stairway to heaven. Then, on Sunday night, right at the start of the dead zone period, our president tweeted on how the Chinese had backed out of their trade deal commitments. Now, for three weeks, what we’ve increasingly heard is a screeching sound from those same market strategists. They’ve already flip-flopped dramatically now back to the fourth quarter game show, “Let’s call for the next recession. Let’s throw out the odds of a recession over the next 6 months, 12 months, or even 2 years.” The same people who called for a market melt-up three weeks ago, now they’re lobbing out recession calls. Someone, please explain to me how this is helpful to anyone who is investing. Is it helpful to short-term trading? Sure….

Chris Perras discusses just how fast the financial media can change their tune on the markets, the “dead zone,” China, and reiterates our view for the markets in 2019 Chris Paris: This is Chris Paris, chief investment officer at full Carvers Financial Group. Welcome to the May 10th edition or weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping you connected to your money. Each week, we share with you our views on the markets and try to educate you to how the stock and bond markets work. This week’s episode is entitled From Melt-up Calls to Blame it on China: All in one short week. Well, so far so good, our patience and discipline of being systematic versus emotional and reactionary is paying off. The S&P 500 has quickly fallen about 4%. Spot volatility has ramped from an Easter low of 12% to over 22% and almost 25% backward. That happened yesterday, as the market has pushed out the China-American trade deal. As listeners know, this is exactly in line with our outlook, that the team at Oak Harvest Financial laid out in the first half back in early January. This can be found at our website at oakharvestfg.com/2019, first-half outlook. The game show, “Let’s Call for a Stock Market Melt Up” has been quickly replaced with a new now number one game show, “Call for a 10% to 20% correction”, or “Let’s set a really big downside target in the S&P 500.” This has happened literally in one week. How quickly can the financial press cancel or change their outlook and replace it with another emotionally fired, driven story? It literally took a weekend. Please review our last two weekly podcasts if you’d like to review our thoughts that proceeded this week’s market downturn. Both audio podcasts can be found at oakharvestfg.com/stocktalk. I’m sure that regular listeners will be glad to hear that I’m off my soapbox, no rants this week. We are now in May. We are now in the dead zone. This is the period after earnings are reported. Stock…

CIO Chris Perras goes on a “rant” regarding recent calls for a market “melt-up,” foreshadows our H2 2019 outlook and recaps this earnings season, on the 5/3/2019 edition of Stock Talk! Chris: This is Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Welcome to the May third edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. Each week, we share with you our views on the markets, what we see coming down the pike for the economy in the markets, we also try to educate you as to how the stock and bond markets work. This week’s episode is entitled, Yes Emily, There is an Easter Bunny and He’s Bringing You a Stock Market Melt-Up…Not. Here we reiterate our first half outlook in our belief that while the good times are coming and we will see 3,000 on the S&P 500 this year and materially higher next year at 2,900 to 2,925 on S&P 500, and we currently sit right about 2,925, 2,940, the overall market is lacking lots of opportunities. The S&P 500 is rallied back to briefly set a new all-time high at over 2,940. That’s about 1.5% higher than the team here at Oak Harvest thought it would go in the first half of this year. As our listeners know, this is in line with the outlook that the team published and first laid out in our first-half outlook published in early January. This can be found on our website at oakharvestfg.com. We’ve discussed the number one reason for the rally many times over the past three months. The Federal Reserve posing its interest rate tightening cycle. This has caused a dramatic lowering of volatility and subsequent rally in the markets. The game of guess the next recession that was commonplace on the financial networks in October through February has now been replaced with the game show, let’s call for stock market melt-up. These calls started near Easter and the S&P 500 was already around 2,900 to 2,925. These market calls…

Chris Perras returns for the 4/26/2019 edition of Stock Talk and discusses where the market is, where we believe it’s heading and earnings in Q1, and he introduces a new weekly segment! Chris Perras: This is Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Welcome to the April 26th edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping you connected to your money. Each week, we share with you our views on the markets, what we see coming down the pike for the economy and the stock markets, and we also try to educate you a little bit on how the stock and bond markets work. This week’s episode is entitled, Are We There Yet? Goldilocks for stocks and the return of the bowl. Here, we reiterate our first-half outlook and our belief that while the good times are coming, and we will see 3000 on the S&P 500 this year, and materially higher next year, at 2875 to 2925 in the S&P 500, currently, we’ve set at about 2925. The overall stock market is lacking an opportunity. However, we are starting to find loads of opportunity in certain unlike sectors, like financials and industrials, for the second half of 2019 and for all of 2020. This is similar to our buying of technology and industrials in the fourth quarter of 2018, when others were scared to buy them. The S&P 500 has now rallied back to about 2925, which is about 1% higher than we thought it could go in the first half. As our listeners know, this is right in line with our outlook, the team at Oak Harvest Financial Group published back in January of this year. This can be found on our website at www.oakharvestsfg.com 2019: First Half Outlook. We’ve discussed the number one reason for the rally many times over the past three months, that being the Federal Reserve pausing their interest rate tightening cycle. This has caused a dramatic lowering of volatility in a subsequent rally in the stock markets. The game of Guess…

Senior Portfolio Manager James McFarland fills in for CIO Chris Perras and explores the differences between gambling and investing on the 4/18/2019 edition of Stock Talk James McFarland: Good afternoon, everyone, this is not Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer of Oak Harvest Financial Group, this is instead James McFarland, senior portfolio manager and head of trading period Oak harvest. Chris is taking a very well-deserved break this week, so I’ll be filling in today on the April 18th, 2019 edition of Stock Talk: Keeping you connected to your money. Each week here on Stock Talk, we share with you our views in the market, what we see happening now and what we see coming down the pipe for the economy in the markets. We also focus on education, sharing with you what we’ve learned about how the stock and bond markets work. I’m recording this on 04/18 at 9:30am Central time. Since Chris is on vacation, I thought we’d really focus in on the educational aspect and talk about something a little bit different. For this week, I’d like to take a couple of minutes and address one of the more common questions we’ve heard from folks regarding investing. I think this is something really basic, really fundamental. If you have a good grasp of what we talked about today, I think you’re setting yourself up to have a much better long-term investing experience. Before jumping into our main topic for the week, let’s take a look at what’s happening out in the markets, this week is of course Easter week, which means it is a shortened trading week, the markets are closed for Good Friday. Given that it’s a short trading week, we didn’t really expect to see any huge moves in either direction on the whole, and that is in fact what’s happening. As of the time of recording, the S&P is down for the week just about 0.3%, and that’s after rising about 3.5% over the last three weeks. Again, not a whole lot of movement in the…

What actually makes up “Goldilocks” conditions for the stock market? CIO Chris Perras discusses three key indicators he looks at when forming his view of the market. Chris: This is Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Welcome to the April 12th edition of our weekly Stock Talk podcast: Keeping you connected to your money. Each week, we share with you our views on the market, what we see coming down the pike for the economy and the markets. We also try to educate you to how the stock and bond markets work. This week’s episode is entitled, “Goldilocks and the Three Bulls”. Here we revisit a topic we first addressed in the early fourth quarter of last year. That topic is, “What exactly is a Goldilocks situation for the economy and stock markets?” The S&P 500 is now rally right back to the 2880/2900 level over the last three months. As our listeners know, this is pretty much right in line with the outlook that the team at Oak Harvest Financial Group laid out in our first half outlook published in early January. This can be found on our website at oakharvestfg.com, as in a financial group, 2019: First Half Outlook. It is done so in a rapid fashion, in an almost straight line, leaving most market pundits, tactical asset allocators, and the financial press largely bewildered. Moreover, the rally has left most market timing and trading type investors largely under-invested. We discussed the number one reason for this rally many times over the past two months. That reason, the Federal Reserve pausing their interest rate tightening cycle. The last two weeks have heard the term Goldilocks used multiple times on TV by the exact same commentators and portfolio managers who only four weeks ago were doubting both the economy and the stock markets. To these people, I say, “Wow, whoa now, not so fast. Please define Goldilocks. What does it mean?” To which they almost all reply, “It’s an economy that is growing not too…

Recap and Outlook: The Waiting is the Hardest Part. Join Chris as he delves into what happened in Q1 2019 and looks ahead to Q2. Chris Perras: This is Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Welcome to the April 5th edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping you connected to your money. Each week we try to share with you our views on the markets, what we see coming down the pike for the economy and the markets. We also try to educate you on how the stock and bond markets work. This week’s episode is our first quarter recap and our second quarter outlook, entitled Rally Hats, Give Way to Tom Petty, the Waiting is the Hardest Part. With the first quarter behind us we wanted to review what worked, what didn’t, and what we expect for the second quarter of 2019. We wrote our first half 2019 outlook in early January, and it can be found on our website at oakharvesfg.com. Look for the investment management tab, the market commentary section, and then a 2019 first-half outlook. It was entitled, Put Those Rally Caps On. So far our outlook for 2019 has been scaringly yet positively accurate. The broad US stock market as measured by the Russell 3000 was up 14% for the first quarter, and it was led by small caps up 17%, large-cap growth of 16% and US real estate investment trusts up 15 3/4%. International stocks were up roughly 10.5% and emerging market stocks were up about 10%. It was a great quarter on absolute basis after a horrible quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018. Looking back on the quarter, what did we do right? Starting with big picture and sticking with our discipline of trying to remove your emotions from your investment decisions, we stepped up and accelerated our buying of stocks in December through January, when our process, our systems and our proprietary indicators were flashing buy, buy, buy signals. This is exactly opposite of what most financial…