On this 1/10/2019 edition of Stock Talk, CIO Chris Perras discusses January action in the markets, what we expect for the next few weeks, and whether or not “Armageddonist” calls for a repeat of February, 2018, are warranted. Chris Peras: Good morning. My name is Chris Peras. I’m Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas. Welcome to the January 10th, 2020 edition of our weekly Stock Talk podcast. Keeping you connected to your money. We’re sitting at another new all-time high in the S&P 500. As of this morning, it’s about 3,275. The team at Oak Harvest will be live streaming our first half 2020 outlook, which we released about 10 days ago, by way of YouTube Live Stream Saturday morning at 10:00 AM Central. If you want to listen, just google the following, “YouTube live streaming Oak Harvest market outlook summit.” Getting into our podcast, given our busy weekend, this podcast will be another short and sweet in content and time. The title of this week’s podcast is The 2019 naysayers and bears finally capitulate, but the armageddonists remain steadfast. We’ve started 2020 right where we left off the last three months of 2019. That is, we’ve started strongly. As we laid out three months ago, the pivot up in the overall market was October 2nd through 4th of last year. These initial moves last almost exactly four months and provide few dip opportunities to buy. Case in point, earlier this week, I rain fired a series of missiles into military bases in Iraq targeting US troops. In the overnight trading session for stocks, stock futures fell almost exactly 2%, the investment team that Oak Harvest laid out as a normal down move for early January. By the time the cash S&P 500 Market opened in the morning for trading, the broad market was already flat, and two days later, the market is making new all-time highs. As we stated in early October of last year, we expect this pattern of behavior in the stock…

CIO Chris Perras welcomes listeners to the new year, and dives right into Oak Harvest’s markets outlook of the first half of 2020! Chris Perras: Hey there. My name is Chris Perras. I’m the chief investment officer here at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas, and welcome to the January 3rd edition of our Stock Talk podcast. This podcast can be a little longer than normal and definitely longer than last week’s because it’s going to be a summary of our first-half market outlook. We published this earlier in the week, but want to read through it for our podcast listeners. On January 4th of 2019 earlier this year, the S&P 500 was trading at 2,475. At that time, most advisors were urging caution and a great deal of the financial press was warning of impending crashes and coming recessions. On that day, the team at Oak Harvest Financial Group first published our first half, 2019 outlook, and it was entitled “Put on your rally caps.” It read as follows. “Given the sharp rise in stock market volatility to reading over 35 on the VIX index and a subsequent market fall in stocks in the fourth quarter of 2018, we are highly optimistic about stock returns in 2019. We believe that the market can fully recover and hit new all-time highs by year-end 2019. Let’s call it S&P 500 3,000 optimistically, and at that time, the S&P 500 was pinned at 2,475. In retrospect, we were too conservative and too low in our positive outlook. However, we would rather err on the side of caution than rather err on one of exuberance. Fast forward to June 14th, 2019 with the S&P 500 trading at 2,885. If you first recall, 2,885 on the S&P 500 was flat with the same level as February 2018. On June 4th of this year, we published our second-half outlook for 2019, and it was entitled Goldilocks Returns. In it, while others were warning of recessions, Chinese trade wars, and Brexit disasters, we called for…

Join CIO Chris Perras for a “Short and Sweet” end of year update on Stock Talk: Keeping You Connected to Your Money!

On a special episode of Stock Talk, CIO Chris wraps up and provides an overview of what happened in the markets in 2019. Chris Perras: Hey there. Good morning. My name is Chris Perras. I’m the Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas, and welcome to the December 20th edition, of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected To Your Money. Sitting at another new all-time high on the S&P 500, I want to recap the year of 2019 a week early. Yes, the markets can move in the last week or two of the year. The fact is they can move up or down by about 1.5% to 1.75%. This podcast though is an overview in the year that was and it’s titled, 2019 a Year of Financial News Noise and Normalcy. As of today, the S&P 500 sits close to 3,200 and a year-to-date return of approximately 27% to 28%. Listeners, this is a fantastic number. However, please recall that this is off a very low base of near 2,350 on the S&P 500 that we hit almost exactly a year ago today on Christmas Eve in 2018. That was on the back of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates too high too fast. In fact, the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 went literally nowhere net between January of 2018 and October 4th of this year. That’s 21 months of ups and downs. That’s 21 months of no net return. A better return metric for long-term investors is that the S&P 500 is now up about 11% since the bull market returned this past fourth quarter. Throughout 2019 investors were bombarded with wild sentiment swings in both positive and negative news stories. Go ahead and recall back to the first quarter of 2019, the financial press was out in force with prediction of recession odds and quoting billionaire hedge fund managers who were all out predicting further market meltdowns and crashes. What did the markets do throughout the first quarter…

On the 12/13/2019 edition of Stock Talk, CIO Chris Perras covers recent major events in the news, and how they may impact the markets. Chris Perras: Good morning. My name is Chris Perras. I’m Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group here in Memorial Houston, Texas. Welcome to the December 13th edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected To Your Money. Sitting at another, I’ll call it skeptical by most counts, a new all-time high of the S&P of 3,165 this morning, I want to follow up on last week’s podcast that was titled, when the S&P 500 was around 3,115, last week it was entitled, It’s Ho, ho, ho Santa, not, oh no, oh no, oh no, Mr. Bill Time, Santa packs up his sleigh for a December rally. Today’s follow-up podcast is entitled, Ho, ho, ho bows to let’s make a deal or two or three. As of this morning, the S&P 500 sits around 3,165. The beginning of this week saw the market sell-off of less than 1% on China trade concerns. This was followed by four positive events that have concerned 95% of investors all year. First America signed a new round of trade agreements with Mexico and Canada called the USMCA. The USMCA is essentially NAFTA 2.0 with a few updates. The pack has been tweaked to include changes for automakers, some stricter labor laws, and environmental standards. Some intellectual property protection and digital trade provisions. The second thing that happened is the Federal Reserve met mid-week and confirmed that it was on hold on the interest rate front, and it was standing by its Treasury and repo market stabilization facility through February of next year. Listeners, that’s the easing is easing monetary policy that the team at Oak Harvest has referred to for almost nine months. Third, top congressional negotiators said Thursday that they had reached a deal to approve $1.3 trillion in federal spending for 2020. This is going to avert a government shutdown next week right in front…

On the 12/6/2019 edition of Stock Talk, CIO Chris Perras reviews recent positive and negative market calls from the financial media, and covers several factors that may impact the market during December. Chris: My name is Chris Perras. I’m chief investment officer here at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas. Welcome to the December 6th edition for our weekly Stock Talk podcast, Keeping You Connected to Your Money. Sitting here around 3115 on the S&P 500 this morning, this podcast is entitled, It’s Hohoho. Santa’s not. Oh no. Oh no. Mr. Bill Time, Santa PAX Slay up for December. As of this morning, the S&P 500 sits around 3,115. The last week of November in the first few days of December brought with it a pullback in the stock market caused by ongoing concerns of the timing and magnitude of the China trade deal. At least that’s what the convenient excuse is. The reality is, we were overbought, things were overhyped and a pullback in early December is normal. This pullback transpired over about three days and amounted to almost exactly 2% from the market’s peak to its low this past Tuesday. For the last few weeks of November, by the way of these podcasts and our weekly weekend update, the team at Oak Harvest had said, this pullback should happen. We warned our investors in front of Thanksgiving, that calls for a stock market melt-up at 3,150 on the S&P 500 were risky at best and absurd at worst. We cautioned our listeners that one, the talk of a Santa Claus rally, two, the talk of all-clear for equities for straight-up December year-end market rally, and three, talk of no volatility were all premature. In fact, I’m going to take a minute and bore my repeat listeners and read an excerpt from our November 22nd podcast, almost exactly two weeks ago. It read as follows two weeks ago. “Most of the financial meter is now calling for a Santa Claus rally or a strong seasonal upturn in the…

On this week’s  pre-Thanksgiving episode of Stock Talk, join CIO Chris Perras as he gives a market update, talks about what a “Santa Claus Rally” might really look like, and then discusses what he and the team at Oak Harvest are thankful for in the markets in 2019. Chris Perras: My name is Chris Perras. I’m Chief Investment Officer here at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas. I apologize if I sound a little strange this morning, I had a head cold. Welcome to our November 21st edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected To Your Money. Sitting here near 3,100 on the S&P 500, this podcast is entitled Thanksgiving in the Markets, It’s Digestion, Not Indigestion, and Let’s Give Thanks. As of this morning, the S&P 500 sits almost exactly at 3,100. We have rallied almost exactly 225 points from the October 2nd through 4th pivot at 2,885 in the span of about six weeks. As we laid out a few weeks ago, the team at Oak Harvest expects two to four weeks of up and down trading in the overall market in a very narrow range now. This is the normal second half of November digestion period. We do not expect the next three to four weeks to be a period of Thanksgiving indigestion. Most of the financial media is now calling for a Santa Claus rally or a strong seasonal upturn in the markets from here. This is of course after the exact same people who waited over 200 S&P 500 points said it’s okay to buy. They waited out the rally and now they’re saying go ahead and buy. After being late to the fourth-quarter rally, it’s not surprising these same individuals have failed to tell their viewers that a normal fourth quarter rally has a late November pullback of up to 2%, which, in my view, is untradeable and another few weeks of choppy up and down trading into mid-December. In years like this, 2019, when the Federal Reserve is easing…

On the 11/15/2019 edition of Stock Talk, CIO Chris Perras provides an update on recent market action, and takes a look at how several predictions of “Financial Armageddon” have actually played out over the last several years. Chris Perras: Good morning. My name is Chris Perras. I’m the chief investment officer here at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas. Welcome to the November 15th edition of our weekly Stock Talk podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. S&P is sitting near 3,100. This podcast is entitled, Financial News or Opinion Calls for Financial Armageddon, 2010 Through Today. As of this morning, the S&P 500 sits almost exactly at 3,100. We have rallied almost exactly 225 points from October 2nd through October 4th pivot at 2,885, and we’ve done this in the span of about five weeks. The normalcy of this rally continues as the team at Oak Harvest laid out back in late June in our second-half outlook. We’re at the end of the third-quarter earnings. This week, applied materials reported a great quarter and an upbeat outlook for the first half of 2020, while Cisco Systems reported a downbeat quarter due to slow corporate spending on new hardware. Cisco has a huge corporate business in China, currently being affected by the trade war, and while they will be a big beneficiary of the fifth-generation wireless technology rolled out, their business momentum per orders in that area will be a second-half 2020 story, as more of the base network from AT&T and Verizon and other wireless carriers need to built out first before corporate customers demand new Cisco technology. As for the market, the S&P is sitting at 3,100. The team at Oak Harvest expects two to four weeks of up and down trading in the overall market in a very narrow range. Let’s call it there’s 1% upside and 2% downside through the end of the month of November. The remaining chance for a pullback of any size, it’ll be at small, would appear to be the last…

Join Chris Perras for a discussion of the nature of the financial news media and how it can impact investors. Chris Perras: Hi, I’m Chris Perras. Good morning. I’m the Chief Investment Officer here at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas. Welcome to the November 8th edition for a weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected To Your Money. Now, sitting at 3,085 in the S&P 500, this podcast is entitled financial news, fact or fiction, truths verse opinions. As of this morning, the S&P 500 sits almost exactly at 3,085. We have rallied almost exactly 200 points from the October 2nd pivot at 2,885 in the span of about four weeks. The normalcy of this rally continues as the team at Oak Harvest first laid out way back in June of this year in our second half outlook. We are at the end of the third-quarter earnings reports, and it has been a better than expected third quarter in earnings. This morning, Disney reported a great quarter and the stock is up almost 6%. We have passed the final fiscal year-end for most big hedge funds and mutual funds two weeks ago, and they are no longer focused on trading around tax positions. They are now free to look forward to a new fiscal year and to the prospects for their portfolios for 2020. They get back to playing offense. The China trade deal and negotiations are going better and are helping year-end sentiment. The path of the broad market should overall remain trending up through early February of 2020 albeit at a much slower rate than the past four weeks. There was likely at most, one small pullback left on a percentage basis this year. If this pullback is to transpire, it should happen from here or slightly, higher levels and be around 2%. If this is to happen, its likely timing is to be the second half of November as the remaining sellers try to make some tax loss sales before early December to avoid a…

On the 11/1/2019 edition of Stock Talk, CIO Chris Perras discusses the impact of the end of the fiscal year, the Fed’s recent easing activity and Oak Harvest’s view on the markets. Chris Perras: Good morning. This is Chris Perras. I’m Chief Investment Officer here at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas, and welcome to the November first edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected To Your Money. I’m entitling this podcast, S&P 500 3,200 in the 1st quarter of 2020, Easing is Easing. As of this morning, the S&P 500 sits almost exactly at 3,055. We’re nearing the end of the 3rd quarter earnings reports and it’s been a normal 3rd quarter, as it normally is, nine out of ten years in both the economy and the stock market. We are out of the dead zone and into the normal stock buyback period of the 4th quarter which brings with it normal upside seasonality in the overall stock markets and the economy. We laid this out the first way back in early January and it continues to play out. We passed the final fiscal year-end for big hedge funds and mutual funds yesterday on October 31st. This is a very big deal that almost no one talks about. Why? First of all, most financial advisors have never managed billions of dollars for a big institution. Most advisors have never seen what this big money does at the very end of their fiscal year-end. What happens is, is trading 100% for tax purposes. Fundamentals do not matter. It is 100% about tax positioning for their funds. As of today, November 1st, they are no longer focused on trading around tax positions. They are now free to look forward to a new fiscal year and the prospects for their portfolios in 2020. They get back to playing offense. The Federal Reserve is still in easing mode. They just cut interest rates for the third time this year. Just like raising rates, which slows the economy with a…