Join Oak Harvest for the July 23rd edition of Stock Talk! We revisit the topic of “Market Breadth,” and explain how media and Wall Street hand-wringing about the topic is over-blown in our view. Chris Perras: Hey, Happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, chief investment officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We’re an investment management and financial advisor here in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our July 23rd, Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. I once again started hearing those familiar calls for, “This is the top, a crash is coming.” Well, they started about two months ago, and those calls picked up speed in the last two weeks as the market’s breadth had become increasingly crowded into fewer and fewer large cap technology stocks, which accounted for most, if not all on the markets gain in the second quarter. This week’s podcast title, The Market has Bad Breadth, You Say, What Problem or Excuse Looks to Be Solved? Before I get to this subject, I want to remind listeners that prior performance is no guarantee of the future. Well, that being said, the data we are seeing much as it was in April of 2020, in late October pre-election, and then again at early November of last year, continues to confirm, not conflict, with our continued very positive second half outlook. Recent research notes throughout Wall Street have been littered with warnings ranging from cautious to outright bearish the last month or two because the breadth of the market has been trending lower since early June by their accounts. I want to first remind listeners, what is meant by market breadth of the market? What technicians and strategists mean when they talk about breadth is they’re trying to quantify how many or what percentage of stocks in a given index are participating in a market’s up or down move. In its simplest form, it’s just a ratio of the number of stocks advancing or those green on your screen, to the number of stocks declining, or red on…

Join Chris Perras for Part 4 of our deep dive into Oak Harvests’s 2nd Half Market Outlook! In this episode, we cover how the common wisdom about the demographics of the United States may not be accurate, and what means for investors. Chris Perras: Hey, happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, chief investment officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We are an investment management and financial advisor here in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our July 16th Stock Talk podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. Last week was the third installment of our multi-part series on our second half 2021 outlook. This forecast is being broken down into multiple segments with each segment trying to address a different topic currently on investors’ minds. Well, the fourth part of this series is titled, Demographics, You’re Being Lied To, and what that means to investors. I’ve loosely covered this topic three to four times since the COVID outbreak hit in March of 2020 last year. I first took up this topic in April of 2020, calling for pent-up demand from housing and autos, backed up by millennials. Well, this was in the midst of calls for The Great Depression round two and deflationary spirals. I then addressed this topic once again, in May of last year, how did we come to that conclusion while the vast majority of strategists and economists were still hunkered down in fear of a replay of the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918? Well, we did the historic research and looked into what exactly happened to the economy and the markets over the next one, three, and five years after the Spanish flu in 1918. Of course, what we found out is that after the horrific and tragic event on a global scene America, and more specifically younger Americans in their household formation years, carried on at an accelerated pace of their lives. Now, doesn’t this sound a lot familiar, like the last 12 to 15 months? Why is it titled Demographics, You’re Being Lied To? Well, because the…

Join us for Part 3 in our breakdown of our 2021 Second Half Market Outlook! In this episode, we discuss Volatility, and examine current trends and levels in light of historical trends and data. In our opinion: the data shows concerns about volatility are overstated and current levels add to an existing bullish backdrop for higher-than-most expect stock market moves in the 2nd half of the year. Chris Perras: Hey, happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We are an investment management and financial advisor here in Houston, Texas, and welcome to our July 9th Stock Talk podcast: Keeping you connected to your money. Well, last week we released the second of our multi-part series in our second half 2021 outlook entitled Let the Good Times Roll. This forecast is being broken down into multiple segments with each segment trying to address a different topic currently on investor’s mind. The third in this series, which after this week should be particularly interesting and timely to our listeners is titled Market Volatility. It’s overstated. Moreover, volatility should be expected during pre-earnings reporting and stock buyback blackout window, dead zone time period like we are now in. In the summertime, well, that makes this period even more nerve-wracking for most investors. I say that this topic is probably timely because just this week, well, more precisely Wednesday night into Thursday morning, we saw a classic case of a spike in volatility. All sorts of reasons were thrown around yesterday as to why this happened. Some of the excuses given were increased COVID cases caused by the Delta variant, Japan announcing a Countrywide emergency again due to COVID, and shutting out spectators for the upcoming summer Olympics. The third excuse I heard was China announcing some monetary easing measures due to their slower growth. I’m not going to try to claim I know the exact trigger for this sell-off, maybe the prime brokers or margin clerks know, but what I can say with high conviction is the…

Chris Perras continues to break down OHFG’s 2021 market outlook. Part 2 in this breakdown series takes a look at the Federal Reserves’ monetary stimulus, its effect on equity markets, and our thoughts on the timing of both a “tapering” announcement and actual tapering actions. Chris: Hey, Happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We’re an investment management and financial advisor here in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our July 2nd, weekly Stock Talk podcast: Keeping you connected to your money. Last week, we released the first of our multi-part series on our second-half outlook for 2021. That outlook entitled, Let The Good Times Roll. Troy and I will be releasing a YouTube video version of this outlook in the upcoming week or so. Listeners can go to oakharvestsfg.com, look under the Investment Management tab in our Market Commentary section, and pull up both an audio podcast as well as an analog version of the report. As I previously mentioned, I wanted to break down this forecast into four to six segments, focusing each segment on a different topic currently on investor minds. While I thought about discussing what I see in the next set of sector rotations developing in the markets in the early third quarter, I’ve decided to stick instead to the second in the series and its title, Federal Reserve Liquidity, All The Right Moves. Since mid-second quarter of 2020, the investment team at Oak Harvest has tried to keep our investors and prospects focused, first and foremost, on one thing, the monetary actions of Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve. We’ve tried to keep them focused on the historic financial market reactions since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and 2009 to such Federal Reserve actions. Time and time again, we try to keep listeners from thinking and listening to others who parroted the phrase, “This time it’s different,” and, “What we’re seeing is ‘unprecedented’.” We’ve tried to present the real-time data as much as possible to show that the financial…

Chris Perras dives into Oak Harvest’s outlook for the 2nd half of 2021, starting with an exploration of our base case view: “We are in a bull market.” Join Chris for this edition of Stock Talk and learn more! Chris Perras: Hey, happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We’re an investment management and financial advisor in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our June 25th Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. Last week we released an abbreviated version of our second half, 2021 outlook entitled Let the Good Times Roll. Troy and I will be doing a YouTube video version soon of this outlook and releasing that in a week or so. Listeners can go to oakharvestfg.com and look under the investment management tab and our market commentary section, and pull up both the audio podcast and the analog version of this report. Over the next few weeks, I plan on breaking down this forecast into four to six segments focusing each segment on a different topic currently on investors’ minds. Those topics will likely be but are not limited to number one, it’s a bull market, number two, the Federal Reserve’s actions such as tapering or raising interest rates. Three, investor inflation expectation concerns, four, real growth rates in the stock market and the economy, five, sector and style rotations in the stock market, and six, demographic trends. First topic, we’re in a bull market as defined by general investor terminology and as such, the investment team at Oak Harvest remains very optimistic on the second half of 2021 and early 2022 stock returns. We titled our second-half outlook, Let the Good Times Roll. As we’ve discussed now for almost a year, so far it’s a very normal bull market. Moreover, the data confirms that it is not unprecedented, as many will say, and is so far very normal by historic standards. What is the definition of a bull market? Well, that is a gain, a positive 20% or greater without…

The Bull Market marches on in the second half of 2021. Why? When? How high is possible? What sectors lead? Join Oak Harvest’s weekly podcast to hear our view of what’s ahead in the 2nd half of 2021. Chris Perras: Hey, happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We’re an investment management and financial advisor in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our June 18th Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. I’m going to keep this week’s podcast short and sweet. It’s a super abbreviated version or second half, 2021 outlook that Troy and I will be releasing shortly by way of a YouTube video. It’s titled Let the Good Times Roll after the hit by the band, the Cars. The investment team has been previewing for weeks, but apparently, others are just now seeing a peak in inflation expectations and a trough in real economic growth. If you want to point to an exact date, look at any stock chart since May 10th or 12th when the yield curve, which peaked way back in mid-March, finally broke down since May the 10th to 12th, what has led the market to all-time highs the past five weeks? Yes, FANG stocks, growth at any price stocks, secular growth stocks have started trouncing value, cyclicals, and commodities. We previewed the top and copper. We previewed lumber being cut, scrap steel melting, and agricultural commodities getting plowed under weeks ago when the real-time warning signals said, and I quote from the movie Trading Places, “Sell, Mortimer! Sell!” Where do we sit now and what is our outlook for the second half? Make no bones about it. We’re in a bull market. While very short-term indicators continue to point to some short-term risk of a minor pullback. This would be very normal. By pullback, we are not talking about those nebulous 10 to 20% correction calls that other firms throw around, but rather something in the 5% to 6% range, if you are lucky enough or good…

Equities, rotation and inflation: Growth stocks versus value. Rotation What is happening with inflation right now? So, how does it affect the stock market? Also, what do the stock and bond markets have to say about current and future inflation? And when will the current rotation in the stock market stop its sideways motion? Chris Perras, CFA®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer, addresses these questions and more.     Resources Find more information and help on our YouTube Channel. Check out these helpful podcasts by Chris Perras, CFA®, here.   Chris Perras: Hey, happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, chief investment officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We are a wealth management and financial advisor in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our June 11th podcast: Keeping you connected to your money. While the S&P 500 is sitting at a marginal new all-time high of 4,240, and we didn’t quite get there the way most people on TV we’re talking about in buying value stocks and buying reopening stocks. We’ve been led the last two weeks by the growth at any price stocks and the technology sector. I wanted to briefly cover two topics. The first topic is the one of inflation, where it stands, and how does it affect the overall stock market. The second topic is the rotational nature of markets throughout bull markets and how they move from a growth stock bias to a value bias. First off, I want to commend Goldman Sachs and David Kostin’s team over there for an excellent recent research piece on these two topics. Although we’ve addressed both these topics a number of times throughout this year and last, I plan on using a few of Goldman’s charts and some of their data to continue to hammer home the same message the Oak Harvest Investment team has been discussing for the past few months. First off on the top, I’ve given inflation. Yes, it has risen since last year in April when the entire world was locked down and in quarantine. No, the investment team…

Stalled and waiting. For the past 3–4 months, almost everyone on TV has been parroting the same sector-allocation theory. And the squawking amounts to this: Have your positions long in value vs growth, small caps vs large, and international vs domestic. Stalled and waiting, explained Chris Perras, CFA®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer, explains why these assessments are late at best. He also explains why they are wrong for H2 2021. Then he lays out his take on market action in June, the second half of 2021 and early 2022.   Resources Find more information and help on our YouTube Channel. Check out these helpful podcasts by Chris Perras, CFA®, here.   Chris Perras: Hey, happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We are wealth management and financial advisor in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our June 4th Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping you connected to your money. First off, no singing this week for me. Second, I hope you had a great long Memorial Day weekend. Third, I hope you’re not taking your market cues from the crowd day trading memes stocks like AMC, GME, and KOSS, because those names are virtually irrelevant to the overall market, and are definitely irrelevant to your retirement plan. Fourth, know our outlook for the summer in 2021 has not changed this week at all. We still expect June to be a very choppy, sloppy month for the markets, but we see it as the likely time to find additional names for the second half of 2021 through the first half of 2022. Marketwise, we continue to trade in a wide band around our sell tax day and go away call the week of April 16th when the S&P 500 closed at 4185. In fact, as of last night’s close, the S&P 500 stood a whopping 15 points higher than tax day seven weeks ago. It’s summer in the markets. This is what a normal second quarter in the first-year presidential term looks like. Go back and look at the S&P 500…

For the past 3–4 months, many commentators on TV have been parroting the same sector-allocation theory in the stock market. Chris Perras, Investment Officer, looks at how this “common knowledge” is holding up. Resources Find more information and help on our YouTube Channel. Check out these helpful podcasts by Chris Perras, CFA®, here.   Chris Perras: Happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. We are wealth management and financial advisor in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our May, 28th, Pre-Memorial Day weekend, weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. First off, the team at Oak Harvest wants to wish you a happy Memorial Day weekend. We want to thank those who bravely served our great country through military service and lost their lives defending our freedom. Secondly, I want to apologize in advance for my inability to carry a musical tune with my voice. For those who are sensitive to hearing, just fast forward the next one or two minutes and go to our website and read the lyrics of what is coming. The tune is to Paul Simon’s hit, Slip Slidin’ Away. Here goes the title of this missive and this week’s weekly Stock Talk Podcast is, Whipsawing Away. [singing] Whipsawing away Whipsawing away You know the more you trade summer The more stock profits slip-slide away I know a man He came from my hometown He wore his passion for day trading Like a thorny crown. He said margin clerk I live in fear My love for debt so overpowering I’m afraid my account balance will disappear Whipsawing away Whipsawing away You know the more you trade summer The more stock profits slip-slide away I know a woman Took on a day trading life These are the very words she uses To describe her whipsawing life She said, a good day I keep most my gains She said a bad day is when I trade and lose all the money that I’ve ever gained Whipsawing away Whipsawing away You know the more…

Oak Harvest Financial Group, wealth management and financial advisor in Houston, Texas calls for patience, while attempting to stay ahead of the curve and the market action. Join Chris Perras as he discusses the current market action on this episode of Stock Talk. Resources Find more information and help on our YouTube Channel. Check out these helpful podcasts by Chris Perras, CFA®, here.   Chris Perras: Hey, happy Friday. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group, we’re a wealth management and financial advisor in Houston. Welcome to our May 21st, weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. Well, market-wise, we continue to trade in a very wide band around our sell tax day and go away call. As of last night’s close, we sit almost exactly at the same levels as that week’s closing high. Short-term traders are either having a field day or getting whipsawed all over the place. Before I get into this week’s topic, I ask a few of my listeners. How has that day trading cryptocurrency going? I believe in this stuff, I believe in the world of digital currency and payments, but make no bones about it, Bitcoin is not a currency. Well, unless you’re maybe comparing it to Zimbabwe or Venezuelan currencies that also can drop 50% to 75% in a few weeks. In the span of just 10 days, you gave up your entire gain for 2021. We’re not talking about small gains that you gave up. At its peak, It was up 140% to 150% year-to-date. In the span of four weeks, you lost your entire year as Bitcoin dropped 50%. Well, such as like an early life on a speculative risk asset. Yes, Bitcoin is a risk asset, not a currency. It provides no cash flow and over the last two weeks, it finally succumbed to the same dynamic that things like hypergrowth, growth at any price stock, and as they are now known, Cathie Wood stocks have been in since mid last year….