Weekend Update, June 2nd, 2025
Index, Sector, and Asset Performance
After a bad March end and a worse beginning of April, the S&P 500 put in a V-bottom on April 7th and with its +6.15% rally, May wrapped up its best month since November 2023. The index ended the week at 5911. For the 3rd week, the index was up +1.88%. The S&P 500 index is up about +0.5% YTD and now rests -4% below its peak. For the first time in 2025, the S&P 500 outperformed the rest of world stocks on a calendar month basis. US large caps gained +6.2% while ROW rose +4.4% in dollar terms.
With a total return of +13.5%, the S&P 500’s gain over the last year has bested its own long-term average by 1.5 percentage points. Post COVID, against all the calls for recessions, crashes, or worse, over the last two and five years, annualized returns have been +20.6% and +15.9%.
Large-cap tech was bolstered by Nvidia’s earnings call. The Magnificent 7 (+2.46%) reached a 3-month high, driven by Nvidia’s earnings, which included a +73% y/y increase in data center sales.
Late Friday afternoon, the President ramped up his tariff rhetoric once again, pledging to double tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%. The announcement prompted warnings from Canada’s steel and aluminum industries, which have already been facing 25% tariffs since March.
Despite OPEC+ nations agreeing to another increase in oil output in July, the third straight monthly rise, WTI oil prices are up $2-3/bbl to around $63 on Russia/Ukraine hostilities. Natural gas is also up +6% this morning.
This morning interest rates are higher with the 10-year rate up +3 bps to 4.43% after sliding -11 bps last week.
All but one of the S&P 500’s sectors rose this week. With interest rates lower, real estate had the largest weekly percentage gain, up +2.7%. Other winners included technology, which was up +2.4%, communication services, which rose +2.1%, and health care, which added +1.8%.
In technology, Palantir (PLTR) shares rose +6.9% amid a report that it was selected by the Trump administration to help compile data on Americans. Energy was the lone sector in the red, down 0.4% for the week.
Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary
Fed Chair Powell gives opening remarks at a Fed conference on international finance at 1 pm today. If he says anything about policy, it will be to reinforce their wait-and-see policy.
The Fed will get some additional data points this week. Monday is the ISM Manufacturing Index. Later today, U.S. automakers are expected to announce new vehicle sales. On Tuesday, job openings for April are released, while on Friday, non-farm payrolls for May come out.
Commodities and Currencies
Oil prices ended down slightly at around $60/bbl. Trade policy, OPEC+ production increases, Iran negotiations, and the potential cancellation of many clean energy subsidies. U.S. crude rig counts plunged to their lowest since 2021 as low oil prices bite producers.
Gold declined to -2.25% but is up today.
Bitcoin held firm at $105,000.
Oak Harvest Weekly Stock Talk
Stock Market V-Bottom, History Repeats?
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
