Weekend Update, September 29th, 2025
Index, Sector, and Asset Performance
Since early April, markets have continued to rally in a V-bottom recovery pattern against a “Goldilocks” backdrop based on optimistic growth expectations with AI spending leading and dovish Fed expectations. Even in a down week, Wall Street finished higher last Friday after the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation gauge showed results in line with expectations, which eased investor concerns over price pressures and bolstered market sentiment.
S&P 500 closed at 6,642, down almost -2% on the week. Earnings have driven most of the +14% YTD return. We expect earnings, particularly in technology, comm services, and consumer discretionary sectors, to continue to be the primary driver of equity prices in 4q25-1H26. Investor positioning adds to the upside case for stocks if the backdrop remains friendly. Despite the S&P 500 being at a record high, investor sentiment remains subdued.
Post Federal Reserve cutting rates, the best performing groups were longer term growth sectors such as technology and comm services, the same groups outperforming year to date. Groups with strong unit growth continue to outperform while slower growth and defensive groups have lagged YTD.
Per Goldman Sachs returns since the beginning of August:
Strategists are continuing to raise their S&P 500 targets, with Goldman Sachs David Kostin moving his target to 7200 for 2026.
Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary
If Republicans and Democrats in Congress can’t agree on funding the government, here could be a shutdown at 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday. After canceling a meeting with Democrats, President Donald Trump has agreed to meet with congressional leaders at the White House today.
The job openings, JOLTS report is on Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index report on Wednesday, and the employment report and the ISM services index on Friday. Many Fed officials speak this week, including events with Governor Jefferson on Tuesday and Friday. If the federal government shuts down, most data releases from federal agencies will be postponed until after the government reopen
US Treasuries, particularly shorter-term rates, have generally performed well across rate-cutting cycles, rallying both before and after rate adjustments.
Earnings: updates from a handful of consumer names NKE, CCL, MTN, CAG, CALM, and LW, as well as JEF and PAYX.
Commodities and Currencies
Oil rallied last week on geopolitical fears.
The US dollar remains essentially flat since Tax Day.
Gold hit new ATHs at $3,800.
Bitcoin and other alt coins sold off hard over the weekend with Bitcoin back to $112k and many alt coins down -3-10%.
Oak Harvest Weekly Stock Talk
V-Bottom Recovery, Month-6 – What to Buy
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
