Weekend Update, September 15th, 2025

Index, Sector, and Asset Performance

The S&P 500 rose +1.6% to 6,584, putting it on course to gain +1.9% this month. If this holds to finish the month, it’d be the second consecutive September it’s risen, which would mark the longest winning streak since the one ending in 2019 that logged gains for three straight Septembers. Historically, the 2nd half of September contains two of the weakest returning weeks of the calendar year.

All but one of the S&P 500’s sectors rose last week. Technology rose +3.1%, utilities added +2.4%, energy climbed +1.5% and financials increased +1.3%.

Oracle (ORCL) had the largest percentage increase in the technology sector, jumping +26%. OpenAI signed a deal with Oracle to purchase $300 billion of its computing power over a period of about five years. In utilities, the AI theme drove Vistra (VST) and NRG Energy (NRG) up +12% each. Energy stocks rose as crude oil futures rose. Top gainers included Texas Pacific Land (TPL), up +5.4%, and Kinder Morgan (KMI), up +3.7%.

Emerging markets led global gains last week with Asia ex-Japan also outperforming. Technology sector led gains up +3.5%. Consumer Staples were the worst performing at -0.5%.

Strategists are continuing to raise their S&P500 targets, with Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson moving his bull case for the S&P 500 to rally to 7,200 points by mid-2026.

Alphabet (GOOGL)and Apple (AAOL) shares rallied sharply following a favorable decision for Google in the remedies portion of the antitrust case. Alphabet’s +9% jump last Wednesday was directly tied to the U.S. government diminished attempt to break up the company which was part of a decade plus long campaign to break up Big Tech. Since 2020, Google, Apple, Amazon and Meta have all been hit with antitrust allegations by the DOJ or FTC.  Alphabet gained over +10% for the week and Apple added +3.2%.  Along with Broadcom’s +10% gain and Tesla’s +5% pop, Nasdaq rose +1.1%.

Broadcom (AVGO) was the leading S&P 500 stock last week, getting a big boost from a new $10 billion AI customer, OpenAI. Tesla shares climbed on Friday after the company said it wants investors to approve a compensation package for Musk that could be worth up to almost $1 trillion, or nothing. Nvidia shares fell more than -4% on the week, the worst performance among the mega caps.

Diamondback Energy (FANG) had the largest percentage drop in the energy sector, falling -6.8%.

Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary

The Fed will meet mid-week with expectations that after being on hold for 10 months, the Fed will resume its rate cutting cycle this week with a 25bp Fed funds rate cut. The rationale being a labor market that has weakened. Earlier last week, the annual revision to the jobs number showed that the U.S. economy overstated jobs by 911,000 over the 12-month period ending in March. On Thursday, the initial jobless claims number rose to its highest level since October 2021.

The key question for the September FOMC meeting is whether the Committee will signal that this is likely the first in a series of consecutive cuts throughout the remainder of 2025.  There is 125-to-150 bps worth easing to get rates back down to the market based neutral level. The question is how long that will take given still-stubborn inflation.

Historically, Fed rate cuts after long breaks and/or at or near all-time highs have been good for equities looking out 12 months. Why? A weak labor market getting the Fed to cut rates helps stock valuations while reducing wage pressures for corporations is historically good for EPS.

The consumer price index rose by +0.4% in August, up from 0.2% in July. Core inflation was steady at 0.3% in August, in line with market expectations. The US Producer Price Index fell by -0.1% in August following a +0.7% increase in July. After excluding food and energy prices, core PPI declined by -0.1. Consumer sentiment in the US fell in September to the lowest level since May, according to preliminary results from a University of Michigan survey.

Investors to be focused on the Retail sales report (Tuesday), FOMC (Wednesday) and upcoming stock analyst days as key events this week.

Earnings:

Adobe (ADBE), fell -0.30%, after posting better-than-expected headline results. ADBE reported revenues of $5.99B and earnings per share of $5.31, versus the expected $5.19.

This week’s EPS reports include: General Mills (GIS), FedEx (FDX), Lennar (LEN) and Darden Restaurants (DRI).

Commodities and Currencies

Oil continues to do little on weak demand and OPEC continues pumping to hurt Russian economics.

The US dollar weakened as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Gold hit new ATHs at 3,650+.

Bitcoin rallied back toward $120,000.

Oak Harvest Weekly Stock Talk

Beyond the Headlines, 5 Possible Tailwinds for stock in 4q25 and Beyond

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.