Weekend Update, November 3rd, 2025
The Song Remains the Same
Index, Sector, and Asset Performance
The S&P500 and Nasdaq are looking to open higher this morning on the first trading day of November. They both gave strong performances in October with the S&P 500 rising +2.3% and the Nasdaq was up +4.7%. The S&P 500 index rose more than +0.7% last week, led by technology and consumer discretionary sectors amid a host of generally better quarterly earnings, a monetary policy announcement and the China trade deal. While we are in the strongest seasonal period for stocks, expect November to be choppier as many Fed governors hit the speech trail, the government shutdown suppresses consumer sentiment and spending, and the S&P 500 digests its 7-month “V-bottom” run.
The S&P 500 ended the week at 6,840, bringing year-to-date growth to more than +17%.
President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping Thursday. China agreed to resume purchases of US soybeans, keep rare-earth exports flowing and crack down on the illicit trade of fentanyl. The US will halve the Chinese tariff rate related to fentanyl, cutting the rate to about 47%.
Per Goldman Sachs 1-Week asset returns:
The information technology sector had the biggest percentage gain on the week, up +3%, followed by a +2.8% increase in the consumer discretionary peer group. Four out of 11 sectors rose, with real estate declining -3.9% and materials falling -3.7%, respectively.
Within the information technology sector, Teradyne (TER) led gains after reporting Q3 results that beat the Street’s expectations. Shares jumped +26%.
The top gainer in consumer discretionary was Amazon (AMZN), which reported Q3 earnings and sales that outpaced analysts’ estimates Amazon (AMZN) is poised to see faster growth in its web services business due to expanding data center capacity, increasing chip availability and surging backlog. The energy sector’s rose as oil futures finally rose on the week. Halliburton (HAL) was the sector’s top gainer, up +19%.
The “wall of worry” remains in place, with the AAII investment survey of the past week indicating the percentage of bulls only at 37%. The percentage of bears was higher at 43%. This data means 63% of “sophisticated” investors are either still neutral or bearish.
US 10-year Treasury yield reversed back to over 4.1%.
Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary
The Federal Reserve met on Wednesday and cut interest rates by 25 basis points. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said another reduction in December is not set in stone. “In the committee’s discussions, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December,” he said. “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a forgone conclusion — far from it.”
The Fed announced an end to its “QT” policy which sets the table for renewed “QE” beginning again under a new Fed chair in mid-2026, in our team’s opinion.
The Federal Government continues to be shut so we will only get private economic data. The economic data fog is likely to extend to next week amid the federal government shutdown. Data releases from private agencies will include October’s ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, Challenger job cuts, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
Last week was the peak week of earnings season in terms of the market cap of companies reporting, but we have another busy week in store for investors, and it’s picking up right where it left off last week. 89% reported better than expected EPS forecasts. 75% have topped sales forecasts. Even in terms of earnings guidance, 3 companies have raised forecasts while only one has lowered.
3Q earnings season continues in earnest this week. Earnings calendar includes Amgen (AMGN) , Uber Technologies (UBER) , and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) .
Commodities and Currencies
Oil and its products rallied back over $60/bbl on larger inventory draws.
The US dollar has been rallying, not falling, for about 7 weeks and sits above 99.
Gold traded below $4,000.
Bitcoin and other cryptos were rangebound last week.
Oak Harvest Weekly Stock Talk
Skipped due to Earnings Conference call Tsunami
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
