Weekend Update, November 24th, 2025
Holiday Shortened Week
Index, Sector, and Asset Performance
The S&P 500 fell by almost -2% (-1.95%) last week led by declines in technology and consumer discretionary stocks. The S&P 500 ended the week at 6,603, and it’s now down -3.5% for November but up +12% for 2025. Coincidentally, +12% is near its average return for positive years in stocks. Speculative areas of the market are in corrections or even bear markets with Bitcoin down -30% since 10/29.
High-beta stocks in cyclical growth areas of the economy fell the most with technology leading sector declines this week, falling -4.7%, followed by a -3.3% drop in consumer discretionary (TSLA, AMZN) and a -3.1% drop in energy stocks. Semiconductor stocks were particularly weak even though Nvidia reported stellar earnings and upped its forecast. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares fell -17%, and Micron Technology (MU) dropped -16%. Nvidia fell -5.9% despite stronger-than-expected Q3 results. Recall, the overall SOX Semiconductor index gained over +100% off its April lows. Amongst consumer discretionary sector weakness, Home Depot (HD) shares fell -5.25%. The home improvement retailers’ Q3 earnings unexpectedly fell on fewer storms and hurricanes and weaker lumber pricing. The company lowered its earnings outlook for the year.
Per Goldman Sachs YTD asset returns:
Communication services climbed +3%, health care rose +1.8%, and consumer staples gained +0.8%.
Alphabet’s (GOOGL, GOOG) shares rose +8.4% as its Google unit unveiled Gemini 3, its latest artificial intelligence model. Sentiment on Google’s technology position in the AI race has changed 180 degrees in less than 6 months going from a projected net “loser” in the new technology era to an AI leader. Similar sentiment shift has occurred at Apple.
Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary
The November 19 estimate from the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model shows 4.2% real growth for the third quarter (Q3) driving by continued heavy AI capex spending and a “resilient” consumer into the holidays.
September job payrolls rose by 119,000, which was more than the 51,000 increase expected in surveys. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, while estimates had expected it to hold at 4.3%.
The interest rate markets have moved from expecting a December cut to no cut back to a cut over the last 3 weeks. The delayed September jobs report made a 25bp cut at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting more likely. Last Friday, New York Fed President Williams argued for “a further adjustment in the near term” because “the downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat.” This view is consistent with that of Chair Powell.
The next jobs report is currently scheduled for December 16 and CPI for December 18, both after the FOMC meeting, so there is little on the economic calendar to stem a cut on December 10.
Last week’s earnings included the aforementioned Nvidia and Home Depot, as well as, a host of retailers including Target, Walmart, Ross Stores and TJ Maxx.
Earnings calendar this week includes Dell and Agilent Tech.
Commodities and Currencies
Oil and its products sit below $60/bbl/ now at $58.
The US dollar has been rallying since mid-April and sits above 99.
Precious metals like gold and silver continued their strong YTD performance with Gold still near $4,000 while crypto assets and Bitcoin dropped to nearly $85,000 on deleveraging, margin calls, and a change in MSCI Index inclusion rules.
OHFG Stock Talk
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
