Weekend Update, November 17th, 2025
Earnings Season Wanes
Index, Sector, and Asset Performance
The S&P 500 initially rallied over +2% in the first two days of week, only to give those gains back by Friday’s close as the federal government reopening turned into a “buy the rumor, sell the news” trading event. The S&P 500 tested its 50-day moving average again last week, and ended the week essentially flat (+.1%). There was significant rotation within sectors during the week with leading YTD sectors lagging and lagging sectors leading. Lower volatility stocks (+.8%) and value stocks were the best performing “factors” last week. High-beta stocks (-1.8%) and small cap stocks were both down more than the market. Healthcare, materials, and energy led gains last week with gains of +4.7%, +3.5%, and +2.7% respectively. Technology, communications, and discretionary stocks fell during the week by -.5%, -.8%, and -2.1% respectively.
Per Goldman Sachs YTD asset returns:
Eli Lilly (LLY) was the best performing stock in health care, rising +11% last week.
In energy, Devon Energy (DVN), rose +6.4% on the week after its better-than-expected Q3 report. Natural gas prices continue to rally on trade deals and European demand.
US 10-year Treasury yield moved to 4.15% last Friday on hawkish Fed talk but is rallying about 3bps this morning.
Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary
While last week saw the end of a 43-day government shutdown, the longest federal closure in US history, government reported data remains sparse. Investors will be waiting for a few weeks for a resumption of economic reports including employment data for September, which is scheduled to be released on Nov. 20, and October.
Last week’s earnings included:
Applied Materials (AMAT), the $180B semiconductor equipment stock beat beat revenue expectations by $120M and beat earnings per share expectations by 6 cents.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) posted a double beat and rallied +4.6% to a fresh 25-year high. The price of Cisco is finally retesting its “Dot.com” bubble peak for the first time.
Expedia (EXPE) rallied +17.6% to a new all-time high on the heels of a strong beat and better forward travel outlook.
3Q earnings season continues to slow this week, but some notable companies are left to report including the largest market cap company in the world, Nvidia, on Wednesday afternoon. So far, 3Q25 earnings reports have been very strong versus consensus expectations. Per Goldman Sachs, AI adoption continues to be a focus as 47% of S&P 500 companies have discussed AI during 3Q earnings calls specifically around productivity and efficiency.
Earnings calendar includes Nvidia (NVDA), Home Depotc(HD), Medtronic (MDT), Lowes (LOW), Target (TGT), Palo Alto (PANW), Walmart (WMT), and Intuit (INTU).
Commodities and Currencies
Oil and its products rallied back to $60/bbl.
The US dollar has been rallying since mid-April and sits above 99.
Precious metals like gold and silver continued their strong YTD performance while crypto assets and Bitcoin dropped to nearly $95,000.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
