Weekend Update, May 20th, 2024

Index, Sector & Asset Performance

Equity markets were mostly higher last week. The S&P 500 climbed +1.5%, while Nasdaq led with a +2.1% increase. The gains saw the S&P 500 hit another new all-time high, while the Dow pushed above 40,000. Gains in tech, materials and banks led sector performance for the week.  The global equity market has gained almost +40% since early October 2022.  The same global indexes are up about +25% just since the lows of last October 2023 when real interest rates peaked.

Economic Indicators Commentary

The U.S. CPI report was in-line to slightly better than expected which helped risk assets. The headline number was a bit below consensus, but the +0.3% gain for both it and core are not an endorsement that inflation has been kicked.

Global Market Trends/Commodities/Currencies

10-year Treasury interest rates are up 50 bps since the start of 2024. The Fed may only cut twice this year, and not five or six times as many had forecast. Interest rate cut prospects in the US are lagging the rest of the world but have not been denied.

Oil prices were choppy last week. The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year. Consumption remains on track to reach a record of more than 103 million barrels per day. WTI and Brent crude closed the week higher at $80.06 and $83.98/bbl, respectively. Gold prices continue to increase in all currencies ending the week at $2440.40/troy oz as US interest rates fell.

The US dollar fell against a basket of currencies last week. Earlier or more Fed interest rate cuts should weaken the US Dollar versus other currencies. The US dollar index closed the week down –0.78%.

OHFG Exclusive Data & Charts

Oak Harvest Weekly Stock Talk – More Normal? Summer Rally led by? Russell 2000 in most years.

Index Performance Summaries