Weekend Update, March 30th, 2026
Iran War Escalating: High Anxiety, Higher Inflation
NASDAQ Correction, Gold – Bear Market
Key Takeaways Last Week
- Global stock markets declined again during the week.
- Treasury yields moved higher, with the U.S. 10-year ending the week near 4.44%.
- Oil prices remained the macro driver as Iran war risk and Strait of Hormuz disruptions kept supply fears elevated.
- The Fed held rates steady in March, but inflation and geopolitical risks kept markets looking at a higher-for-longer path.
- Consumer sentiment weakened in March as higher gasoline prices and market volatility weighed on expectations.
U.S. Stock Performance – Index and Sector Moves
Source: Seeking Alpha
Financial markets remained under pressure during the week ending March 27, 2026. The dominant driver was the ongoing Iran conflict and the continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy prices pushed inflation fears higher just as risk assets were already struggling with slower growth, weaker sentiment, tighter financial conditions, and higher long-term interest rates. The Dow entered correction territory, the Nasdaq remained in correction, and the S&P 500 closed near correction levels.
The S&P 500 fell over -2% on the week to 6,368, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average also lost about -1% to 45,166. The Nasdaq Composite declined by over -3% for the week to 20,948. Smaller companies held up better on a relative basis, with the Russell 2000 gaining about for the week despite a weak Friday close. Year to date, losses remain broad: the Nasdaq is down about -8.5%, the S&P 500 about -7.0%, the Dow about -6.0%.
Sector leadership rotated away from prior growth winners and toward energy. Energy remained the winner as WTI crude approached $100 per barrel in the U.S. and Brent moved well above $100. Technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary were among the weakest areas as investors continued reducing exposure to rate-sensitive and growth-heavy leadership, both effected by higher nominal interest rates and higher inflation. More than half of major industry groups are already in correction territory, underscoring how broad the internal market decline has become.
Source: Seeking Alpha
International/Global
International markets were also pressured by the same energy shock. Europe faces even higher fuel costs, higher bond yields, and renewed concerns that a prolonged conflict could weaken growth. Reporting on Friday noted that the European Union warned a sustained conflict could subtract as much as 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth across 2026–2027. In Asia, oil-importing economies remained vulnerable to further disruptions in Gulf shipping lanes.
S&P 500 Top 5 Performers
The market struggled with certain energy and defensive stocks saw relative strength.
- Brown-Forman (BF.B): +19.25% – takeover bid
- SLB (SLB): +14.73% – rebuilding energy infrastructure
- Albemarle (ALB): +14.52% – chemical pricing
- APA Corporation (APA): +13.50% – natural gas E/P
- Dow Inc. (DOW): +11.38% – chemical pricing
Volatility & Risk Sentiment
Volatility increased alongside oil spikes and much higher inflation expectations on supply chain issues caused by Iran.
Risk sentiment remained fragile. The market’s concern is no longer only about slower growth; it is now about the possibility oil stays elevated for longer while demand softens. Investors reduced cyclical and growth exposure, while bond volatility also remained elevated as markets repriced the path of inflation and Fed policy.
Consumer confidence deteriorated through March. University of Michigan consumer sentiment for March fell to 53.3 from 56.6 in February, with the expectations component dropping to 51.7. The reason – rising gasoline prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran conflict as key pressures.
The Vix Index is still below crisis levels but investor sentiment is nearing contrary bullish extremes as the volatility term structure went backward for 6 weeks by almost 20%.
Bonds & Interest Rates
Treasury yields rose notably over the week as investors priced in the inflationary implications of higher oil and greater geopolitical uncertainty. 10-year Treasury yield ended March 27 at 4.44%, up from 4.20% on March 20. The 2-year yield ended at 3.88%, while the 30-year closed just under 5%.
The move higher in nominal yields matters because it tightens financial conditions even without a Fed hike. Mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and discount rates for equities all move higher when the long term interest rates move higher.
Economic Data, Monetary Policy & Earnings
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at its March 17–18 meeting. The Committee said it would assess incoming data and the balance of risks. One FOMC voter dissented in favor of a 25-basis point cut, highlighting that policy debate is becoming less one-sided as growth worries and inflation worries collide.
Investors worry the Fed sees inflation as more persistent even as labor-market slack slowly builds.
Earnings reports this week include reports from companies: NKE
Commodities, Currencies & Macro Assets
On Friday, Brent crude settled at $105.32 per barrel and WTI crude at $99.64, after trading above $100 intraday in the U.S. market. Markets remain focused on the risk that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could keep supply constrained and inflation elevated.
Gold’s response has been mixed. Elevated real yields and stronger dollar have limited upside in precious metals even as investors look for defensive exposures. The dollar remains more of a currency hedge substitute than inflation play and many international holders sold aggressively to fund potential war expenses.
Bitcoin ended near $66,862, remaining well below prior highs but stabilizing versus the broader de-risking seen in equities.
The U.S. dollar remained supported by safe-haven demand and higher U.S. yields. The dollar remains near 100 versus many calls for over a year of the “dollars” demise, it’s strengthened. The stronger dollar, along with rising long-term rates, added another headwind for commodities ex-energy and for multinational risk assets.
What Matters This Week?
What Matters Most to Investors This Coming Week?
- Iran War escalation/de-escalation
- Oil stabilization vs further spike causing more inflation concerns for 2-4q26
- Jobs report (April 3)
- Real-time bond market Inflation expectations trend
- Federal Reserve communication shift and progress toward new Fed Chair
OHFG Stock Talk
Source: Seeking Alpha
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
