Weekend Update, June 30th, 2025
New All-Time Highs Aren’t Bearish
Index, Sector, and Asset Performance
After closing at its first all-time high since mid-February, stocks look to pick up where they left off on Friday. The S&P 500 index rose +3.4 to new highs, led by growth sectors communication services and technology.
The S&P 500 ended last week at a record closing high of 6,173. The market benchmark also recorded a new intraday high during Friday’s session at 6,187. With one day remaining in June, the S&P 500 is up +4.4% for the month and +5% for the year. The US and China confirmed details of a trade framework that would allow exports of rare earths and ease technology curbs. Semiconductor stocks have led rally gains having risen 65% since April 4th. NVDA reclaimed its spot as the world’s largest company from MSFT.
Over the weekend, Canada did a quick U-turn and scrapped its Digital Services Tax after President Donald Trump cut off U.S. trade talks with the maple leaf country. President Trump continues to push forward the GOP-backed mega-bill which is making its way through the Senate. The President’s self-imposed deadline is the upcoming July 4th holiday recess in DC.
Also over the weekend, all the large banks passed the latest Federal Reserve stress tests. Shares of Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs are rising this morning.
The market has taken the Israel-Iran conflict in stride. Stock indexes are up big for the month and the second quarter. The US stock market closes early Thursday and remains closed on Friday for Independence Day.
Clean energy stocks declined after the Senate’s latest version of the tax-and-spending mega bill will phase out tax credits for large-scale wind and solar projects by the end of 2027, earlier than in previous drafts. The latest version also includes a surprise new tax on projects that use supplies from China, the world’s biggest source of renewable energy equipment.
Communication services was the big winner on the week up +6.2%, followed by a +4.7% rise in technology and a +4.4% gain in consumer discretionary. Financials, industrials, materials, healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples also rallied.
Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META), rose +7.5% on the week. A Bloomberg report said the company is in talks to acquire PlayAI, a startup using artificial intelligence to replicate voices. UBS raised its price target on Meta stock to $812 from $683 while saying Meta faces less exposure to a potential slowdown in enterprise artificial intelligence spending. In the technology sector, gains were led by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), rising +12% as CFRA Research upgraded its investment rating on the stock to strong buy from buy and lifted its price target to $165 per share from $125.
Nike (NKE) shares led the consumer discretionary stocks as the footwear and apparel company reported smaller-than-expected declines in fiscal Q4 earnings and sales. Its shares rose +20% as the company also pointed to plans to mitigate $1 billion in tariff-related costs.
Two sectors were down for the week: Energy fell –3.5% and real estate shed –0.8%.
Interest rates declined last week on dovish Fed comments and slowing growth. The 10-year yield dropped -11 bps and the 2-year dropped -17 bps.
Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary
The economic indicators today are the Chicago PMI at 9:45 and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report at 10:30. Washington will be a focus for the market today as investors look to see if the Senate can pass a version of the GOP tax bill.
Powell also said that weaker labor market conditions could inspire an earlier rate cut, though they have been “solid” so far.
Earnings reports should be limited this week unless companies try to sneak in a July 4th weekend “surprise”, usually bad news.
Commodities and Currencies
Gold is pulling back.
Bitcoin rallied back toward $107,000.
Oak Harvest Weekly Stock Talk
OHFG’s 2nd Half Market Outlook
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
