Weekend Update, July 28th, 2025
Index, Sector, and Asset Performance
The S&P 500 index rose +1.5% this week to another closing record in an advance led, for the first time in a while, by the health care sector. The S&P 500 ended at 6,389, its highest closing level ever. This was its fifth consecutive session, closing at a record high. The S&P 500 is now up +3% for the month of July and +8.6% YTD.
Health care gained +3.4%, followed by materials, up +2.4%, and industrials, up +2.3%. Real estate and communication services each added +2.2%. Financials, energy and consumer discretionary added more than +1% each while utilities, technology and consumer staples rose slightly.
On Sunday evening, the European Union promised to buy $750 billion of American energy imports over three years as part of a trade deal with President Donald Trump. The deal would require annual purchases of $250 billion of natural gas, oil and nuclear technology, including small modular reactors, according to EU officials. The estimates were based on the existing plan to shift away from remaining Russian fossil fuel supplies and purchasing “more affordable and better” liquefied natural gas from US producers. In materials, Newmont (NEM) shares climbed +13% as the company reported Q2 adjusted earnings per share and sales above analysts’ mean estimates. GE Vernova (GEV) had the largest percentage gain in industrials, up +12% as the company reported Q2 earnings per share and revenue above analysts’ mean estimates.
Per Goldman Sachs:
Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary
There’s is an FOMC meeting this week that ends on Wednesday and the August 1st deadline for trade deals on Thursday.
The US non-farm payrolls report will be this Friday. The ISM Manufacturing report will also be on Friday, along with the Michigan Sentiment. These reports will be followed by Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, ADP, GDP, and PCE on Wednesday, and jobless claims on Thursday.
Behind the scenes in the real time bond market, inflation expectation/break evens are beginning to turn up slightly from about 2.45% at the same time real growth expectations (TIPs) are roiling over. Historically, these two things have proceeded with market stalls and occasionally squalls over the coming 2-3 months.
Among hundreds of companies reporting earnings this week (over 35% of the S&P 500), Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) will report on Wednesday, followed by Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) on Thursday.
Last week, VeriSign (VRSN) reported a double beat. This was the stock’s 3rd consecutive positive earnings reaction. They reported revenues of $5.32, versus the expected $4.85, and earnings per share of $1.43, versus the expected $1.16.
Additionally, the HVAC maker Comfort Systems (FIX) reported a huge beat on both revenue and earnings on the back of AI data center buildouts as well as mandated technology change here in the US for retail home building consumers.
Alphabet/Google, surged after reporting a +14% increase in second-quarter revenue. The report included upbeat views about AI supporting the company’s cornerstone search-engine revenues and a $10 billion increase in its 2025 capex forecast to $85 billion.
Commodities and Currencies
Oil continues to do little.
Cyclical commodities are turning up. From copper, the leading indicator for emerging market growth to lumber which is more of a domestic indicator.
Against the backdrop of peak “de-dollarization” noise (recall the panic in late December 2024 that the dollar was too strong on “American exceptionalism”), the DXY index looks to have troughed and is turning higher. This would be a mirror of the 1998-1999 Dot.com era move as it has been on stocks as well.
Gold is stuck near $3,300/oz.
Bitcoin rallied toward $118k with Ethereum ($3,850) taking the lead in the public’s eye for momentum around stable coins.
Oak Harvest Weekly Stock Talk
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