Weekend Update, July 14th, 2025

July 14th: Tis the Season

Index, Sector, and Asset Performance

The S&P 500 closed near flat on the week despite a news laden week. The S&P 500 brushed off Liberation Day Part Duo, barely reacting to President Trump’s doubling down on tariff threats. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 6,290 last Thursday before retreating Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 edged down -0.3% last week amid the Trump administration’s new tariff threats. The S&P 500 ended Friday’s session at 6,259.75. The index hit a new intraday high on Thursday at 6,290.22 before ending the day’s session at 6,280.46, its highest closing level ever. The index is up+ 0.9% for the month and +6.4% for the year.

July tends to be a positive month in the markets because of previously discussed seasonal behavior during the first year of the presidential term. Seasonality, the market tends to peak the first two weeks of August for summer and early fall.

Source: Bloomberg data

Nvidia became the first company to reach the $4 trillion market cap. AI/ semiconductor beneficiaries continue to extend their gains since early April when many had declared the AI trade dead.

Source: FS Insite

Financial stocks led declines down -1.9%, followed by -1.8% in consumer staples and -1.2% in communication services. Real estate, health care and materials also edged lower. Progressive (PGR) was among the worst stocks, falling -6.4% as Morgan Stanley downgraded its investment rating on the stock to equal weight from overweight. In consumer staples, shares of Conagra Brands {CAG) had the decline, sliding -7.6% as the packaged food company reported weaker-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results.

On the upside, energy stocks climbed +2.5%, followed by a +0.8% rise in utilities. Industrials, technology and consumer discretionary rose nominally. Crude oil futures rose. Energy stock on the rise included shares of Halliburton (HAL), up +7.3%, and Hess (HES), up +6.4%.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended the week around 4.40%, up +6 bps on the week. Markets now place no chance of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on July 30. Those odds move higher to a 70% chance of a rate cut during Q3 overall. Credit markets declined slightly alongside stocks, with higher rates driving underperformance in fixed-rate high yield bonds.

Expect the talk on higher tariff induced inflation to ramp during August and September as the lag affect takes hold. Goldman Sachs expects moderate upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed. They see scope a boost from tariffs on furniture (GS forecast: +0.5% MoM), recreation (+0.5%), education (+0.3%), communication (+0.1%), and personal care (+0.4%) prices in June.

Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary

Jobless claims fell for a third consecutive week to 227,000 (Cons. 235,000). Slow and steady growth remains the backdrop. The Economic Surprise Index has started to rise back above zero. CPI, PPI, and retail sales are all released this week.

Earnings reports ramp in earnest this week with most big banks reporting first. Quarterly earnings reports are expected from companies including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Netflix (NFLX), PepsiCo (PEP) and American Express (AXP).

Commodities and Currencies

Oil prices moved up as economic data showed a resilient U.S. economy and OPEC released its annual report.

Gold rose slightly but has been rangebound since mid-April. Copper prices in the U.S. hit new highs surging +8% after President Trump announced 50% tariffs on the metal.

Bitcoin and other digital currencies surged to a new records of $118,000 after two months of sideways around $100,000.

Oak Harvest Weekly Stock Talk

The Heat of Summer: Don’t Let Seasonal Shifts Derail Your Strategy

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.