Weekend Update, December 8th, 2025
Index, Sector, and Asset Performance
Strength in cyclical areas like technology and energy pushed the S&P 500 to gain +0.3% as declines in utilities and health care offset some strength. S&P 500 ended the week at 6,870, up +17% YTD.
It’s been 28 trading days since the S&P 500 closed at a record high. This was right before the Fed’s October meeting and Powell’s hawkish cut on 10/29. The S&P 500 is about 50 points from that October high and its 37th record closing high for 2025. It hasn’t been “just 7-9 stocks” driving the S&P 500 in 2025 as the nine stocks in the S&P 500 with market caps greater than trillion $’s account for almost 40% of the S&P 500. Of these nine stocks, only three of them: Alphabet (GOOGL), Broadcom (AVGO), and Nvidia (NVDA), are outperforming the S&P 500 YTD. Market breadth continues to improve. Last week, the Russell 1000 Value Index reached a new ATH. The S&P MidCap 400 Index, the Russell 2000 Index, and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index also reached new ATHs.
The energy and technology sectors had the largest percentage increases last week, rising +1.4% each. Communication services, consumer discretionary, financials and industrials also rose.
The energy sector gained as crude oil futures rose. APA (APA) was among the top gainers in the sector, rising +8.5%.
Microchip Technology (MCHP) was the best tech name, jumping +23% on the week as the company said it expects fiscal Q3 adjusted earnings per share guidance of about $0.40, which is at the high end of guidance of $0.34 to $0.40.
On the downside, utilities fell -4.5%, followed by a -2.7% loss in health care as long term interest rates rose. Materials, real estate and consumer staples also declined.
Per Goldman Sachs 1-Week asset returns:
US 10-year Treasury yields rose and sit near 4.15%. The 2yr US Treasury note yields 3.55%, about 25 bps below the lower end of the current fed funds band (3.75%=4.00%).
Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary
Investors are waiting on Wednesday’s Fed meeting, with the S&P 500 closing in on a new high. The odds of a January cut are low, and the consensus is that Powell’s commentary will be hawkish.
China export data showed a 5.9% y/y increase versus forecasts for growth of 3.8%. Japan’s Q3 GDP was weaker than expected, falling -0.6%, spelling out a tough road for the BoJ.
Delayed government data released last Friday showed US consumer spending growth slowed in September. The annual PCE headline price index accelerated to +2.8% in September from 2.7% in August, but the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, which excludes food and energy, slowed to 2.8% annually from 2.9% in August. The government data is much delayed.
The U-3 unemployment rate was 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. There is a good argument for emphasizing the employment side of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dual mandate.
Reported earnings have come in well ahead of consensus expectations in Q2 and Q3 of 2025.
Earnings calendar includes including Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), Broadcom (AVGO) and Costco Wholesale (COST).
Commodities and Currencies
Oil and its products rallied back to $60/bbl. Copper and other industrial metals have hit new ATHs.
The US dollar sits near 99.
Precious metals like gold and silver continued their strong YTD performance with gold back over $4,250/oz. Crypto assets and bitcoin has been ever volatile since pulling back from their mid-summer $125,000 ATH.
OHFG Stock Talk
You Get What You Pay For: Style and Sector Shifts and Rotations
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
