Weekend Update, August 25th, 2025

August 25, 2025

When Dove’s Come to Town

Index, Sector, and Asset Performance

Markets exploded higher to end the week at 6,466 on the S&P 500 on the back of a dovish speech by Federal Reserve Chairmen Jerome Powell where he emphasized a slowing labor market over one-time inflationary/price changes caused by tariffs. And on the back of his statement, yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped -7bp today to 4.26% and the S&P 500 rallied +1.5%, erasing the week’s previous losses.

On Friday, NYSE breadth was 9.2x positive/negative, and it’s up/down volume was 11.2x. very bullish over the coming quarters. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had already posted numerous record closes this year, the Dow index finally got there as well on Friday. Across sectors, 10 of the 11 S&P groups finished positively, with cyclical Consumer Discretionary and Energy leading the advance. Consumer Staples were Fridays weakest performer. Overall, the S&P 500 index rose +0.3% last week, making its third consecutive week of gains. It is now up +2% for August and about +10% for the year.  On the week, technology was down -1.6%, and communication services, down -0.9%.

Into Friday morning, the S&P 500 logged its fifth consecutive losing day, marking the index’s longest losing streak of the year. Traders positioned ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s pivotal Jackson Hole address.

% change table.

Apple is in early talks to use Google’s AI model Gemini to power a revamped version of its voice assistant Siri, Bloomberg News reported. Apple approached the Alphabet (GOOG) to explore building a custom AI model that would serve as the foundation of the new Siri next year, the report added.

Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary

The rally was catalyzed by Fed Chair Powell’s speech delivered language that once again upped expectations for a 25bp cut at the FOMC’s September meeting. Powell acknowledged that shifting balance of risks toward weaker labor markets may warrant adjusting our policy stance.

This week’s economic releases include July PCE reading, August Consumer Confidence survey updates, and a Richmond Fed index. Additional data includes housing data points including July New Home Sales and the June Case-Shiller price survey.

Shares of Intuit (INTU) dropped -5% after the software firm reported its latest quarterly earnings.

Retail earnings season was the focus last week with results from many of the biggest companies. A few highlights:

  • WMT. delivered strong top-line growth and raised its sales forecast by 75bp
  • TGT. Continues to struggle although the retailer reported better-than-expected same-store sales. Management called out an encouraging start to the back-to-school season.
  • HD + LOW. hardware retailers saw same-store-sales rise ~1% yoy for the quarter, helped by weather. Both stores struggled to keep up with rising prices more generally..”
  • TJX + ROST. Discount retailers have been the place to be with strong same-store sales growth by 2%-4% in the quarter. In times of uncertain growth, everyone looks for a deal.

Earnings include NVDA, DELL, BABA, MRVL, CRWD, HPQ, NTAP, SNOW, ADSK, MDB, OKTA, BILL, AFRM. PVH, GAP, ANF, UR, ULTA, DKS, WSM, DG, and BBY

Commodities and Currencies

Oil continues to do little on weak demand and OPEC continues pumping to hurt Russian economics.

The US dollar weakened as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts rose on Friday’s speech. Nine out of ten traders are betting on a Fed rate cut in September, driving dollar weakness.

Gold is stuck near $3,400/oz.

Bitcoin hit a new ATH at $124,500. Ethereum has become the new must have crypto hitting over $4,700, gaining over 150% in the last 3 months.  Flows into Ethereum ETF’s have reached over $1 billion a day.

Oak Harvest Weekly Stock Talk

Pleasant Surprise, More New All-Time Highs in Stocks

Week Ending 8/22/2025 tables.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.