Weekend Update, August 11th, 2025
Index, Sector, and Asset Performance
The S&P 500 index jumped +2.4% last week, led by technology (PLTR, AAPL and GOOGL) and consumer discretionary stocks. Better-than-expected earnings, short covering, and growing expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September and up to 2 more times in 2025 after that pushed volatility down and stocks up. The S&P 500 ended the week at 4,389, bringing 3rd quarter-to-date gains to +3% and year-to-date growth to +8.6%. The U.S. government is reportedly going to take a 15% cut on Nvidia and AMD chip sales to China, in exchange for Washington approving export licenses. Nvidia shares are only slightly lower this morning.
Per Goldman Sachs:
Economic Indicators and Earnings Commentary
ISM services index fell to 50.1 in July from 50.8 in June. This compared with the 51.5 expected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. A reading below 50 denotes contraction.
Initial jobless claims rose to 226,000 in the week ended Aug. 2, up from 219,000 in the previous week, compared with expectations for 222,000 in a Bloomberg survey.
The odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September hit 89% as of Friday, up from 61% a month earlier. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) jumped more than +21% after Q2 results topped estimates as sales in the US increased. Apple (AAPL) shares jumped over +13% as the company announced plans to invest an additional $100 billion in the US to bring more of its supply back to the US. Tesla (TSLA), was the second-biggest gainer in consumer discretionary. The company awarded CEO Elon Musk 96 million new shares, it said in a filing. Shares of the EV manufacturer jumped +8.9% on the week.
Declining stocks included shares of Eli Lilly (LLY), which fell almost -18%. While Lilly raised its full-year earnings outlook and reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter results, its shares were sold hard as data from its weight-loss pill disappointed investors.
Per Data Trek, earnings for the S&P 500 are doing something they almost never do…rise throughout the year. Most likely, this is a result of estimate cuts from April tariff uncertainty and a lower dollar versus 2h2024. Estimate changes by sector from DataTrek:
Earnings reports begin to slow this week but include Cisco Systems (CSCO) , Applied Materials (AMAT) and Deere (DE).
Commodities and Currencies
Oil continues melt lower as demand is weak, and OPEC continues pumping seemingly to hurt Russian economics.
Gold is stuck near $3,350/oz.
Bitcoin hit $120k.
Oak Harvest Weekly Stock Talk
New Segment on Long/Short Equity Strategy coming
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
