Weekend Update, April 13th, 2026
Inflation “Peak?” Growth Stocks Streaked
Key Takeaways Last Week
- U.S. stocks extended their winning streak with U.S. equities posting a strong weekly rebound. The S&P 500 rose +3.6% and Nasdaq +4.7%.
- Markets were driven by a temporary Middle East ceasefire and easing volatility.
- Inflation data surprised to the upside, largely due to energy prices.
- Technology stocks rebounded and leadership dominated by megacap stocks driving gains.
- Geopolitical risk re-escalated late in the weekend with U.S.–Iran tensions and oil risk.
U.S. Stock Performance – Index and Sector Moves
Financial markets improved during the week ending 4/10
Source: Seeking Alpha
Financial markets rose during the week ending April 10, 2026. The main drivers were Middle East geopolitical developments, inflation data, and anticipation of earnings season. These forces influenced risk appetite and sector leadership. U.S. equity indexes finished the week higher overall. The S&P 500 rose +3.6% to 6,816. The value biased Dow Jones rose +3% to 47,916. The tech heavy Nasdaq rose +4.7% to 22,903, and the Russell 2000 gained +3.95%
Year to date the S&P 500 is down -0.4%; the Dow 30 is -.31%; the Nasdaq is -1.46%; while the Russell 2000 is up +5.2%. Sector performance was led by technology and semiconductors, while energy lagged due to falling oil earlier in the week.
Source: Seeking Alpha
S&P 500 Weekly Leaders and Laggards Ranked (best available weekly % change ordering):
- Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): Gained 18.1% as a top performer in the tech/AI space.
- LyondellBasell Industries (LYB): Surged on competitive advantages, defying the energy-related downturn.
- SanDisk Corp (SNDK): Continued to lead on NAND flash demand.
- GE Vernova (GEV): Benefited from rotation into infrastructure.
- Meta Platforms (META): Gained 2.6% on AI model news
Bottom S&P 500 – WTD Laggards (Last Week)
Laggards were driven by a retreat in energy and cyclical stocks following a softening in crude oil prices, which declined by roughly -9.5% for the week
- Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Part of the energy pullback.
- Chevron Corporation (CVX): Weakened due to energy sector sensitivity.
- Schlumberger (SLB): Experienced profit-taking.
- Halliburton (HAL): Dropped following oil price softening.
Intel, AMD, and several tech names rallied, while energy cooled.
Source: Seeking Alpha
International/Global
International markets were generally strong as investors reacted to Middle East developments and oil volatility. South Korea and Japan equity leadership returned.
Europe focused on inflation and energy risks, while Asia monitored trade and semiconductor demand. Emerging markets were influenced by oil prices and dollar strength. Higher trends in either tends to hurt relative performance.
Global investors continue to monitor Strait of Hormuz tensions, given its implications for global energy supply and inflation.
Volatility & Risk Sentiment
Equity risk sentiment improved from overbought levels. The VIX ended Friday below 20. Risk sentiment was improving during the week but fragile into the weekend. Bond market volatility declined (MOVE Index) throughout the week and fixed income markets showed signs of collateral healing.
The market continues to debate whether the 1q selloff was an energy-driven correction or the beginning of a broader scare. The rebound last week helps near-term sentiment, but oil breaking higher this weekend shows investors remain highly sensitive to inflation expectations and policy repricing.
Historical Perspective of “War”, and Corrections for equities with data from Adam Khoo and Peter Mallouk: Far from “Unprecedented”, including America’s entry into WWII. While the war with Iran will likely continue, stocks can still rise. The US entered World War 2 on December 8, 1941, and the war ended in 1945. What happened to US stocks? The equity markets bottomed on April 28,1942 and closed positive every year till the end of the war.
Source: Adam Khoo
Source: Peter Mallouk – Creative Planning
Bonds, Credit & Interest Rates
Treasury yields finished the week flattish to lower. Even with elevated concerns over private credit lending standards, credit conditions look stable to bias wider. Credit investors remain focused on if higher oil and slower growth translate into a widening cycle.
Economic Data, Monetary Policy & Earnings
The week’s most important economic data last week was the March ISM Manufacturing PMI and the March employment report. ISM manufacturing rose to 52.7, indicating a third straight month of expansion. BLS reported payrolls increased by 178,000 in March and unemployment held near 4.3%. This was a meaningful rebound from February’s weakness and suggested the labor market had not rolled over before the latest oil shock intensified.
The Fed held rates steady at its March 17–18 meeting and said economic activity had been expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained somewhat elevated. Last week’s stronger jobs report reinforced the view that the Fed has room to wait. ADP’s March report had previously shown private employment rising 62,000, a softer figure than Friday’s official payroll report but still consistent cooling, not collapsing.
Commodities, Currencies & Macro Assets
Commodities fell with WTI oil back below $96 on de-escalation hopes.
Gold bounce about 1.8% back toward $4,800/0z.
In currencies, the Dollar Index fell back below 100. A weaker dollar and lower oil eased financial conditions.
Bitcoin rallied to $73,000.
Source: Seeking Alpha
Liquidity Conditions
Equity liquidity conditions were better. Treasury liquidity improved.
Flows & Positioning
The market had entered the week after five straight weekly declines, sentiment plunging, and positioning flipping negative at CTAs. Energy stocks cooled after an extraordinary YTD and March run, while tech and beaten-down cyclicals led the rebound. Investor flows showed risk-on rotation into equities, particularly tech. Positioning in equities improved. Fixed income positioning also improved.
What Matters This Week
Markets will focus on:
US (Israel) and Iran negotiations around the Strait of Hormuz, Iran nuclear enrichment, and Lebanon bombings.
Key developments:
- CPI inflation rose to ~3.3% YoY, driven by energy.
- Core inflation remained more stable.
Federal Reserve: Stance is less hawkish but remains data dependent. Look for progress on Warsh confirmation.
Earnings: Focus shifting to banks and megacap tech 1q26 EPS reports.
The question remains – does a stronger labor market and seasonal 2q upturn in economic data keep investor and consumer confidence intact long enough for oil to cool, or whether the energy shock begins to dominate inflation expectations again.
Bottom Line
Markets rallied sharply for the 2nd week in a row into the 100-day MVA. The rebound did not resolve the macro. Growth data improved, the labor market looked sturdier than feared, and bond markets are functioning. But oil is elevated (quite a lot Sunday evening) and the Fed is still debating an economy where an energy shock could keep inflation higher just as economic confidence tries to recover.
Stock Talk
The “AI Infrastructure” trade vs. “HALO”, and Why a Barbell Strategy might Work Best for 2-3q26
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
