Weekend Update, April 6th, 2026
War Fears “Ease,” Then Reprice Higher for Longer
Key Takeaways Last Week
- U.S. stocks broke a 5-week losing streak, with the S&P 500 up +3.4%, the Dow up +3.0%, the Nasdaq up +4.4%, and the Russell 2000 up +0.5% for the Easter-shortened week.
- The dominant driver remained the Iran war and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, which drove sharp volatility in oil and risk sentiment throughout the week.
- Oil ended the week with a renewed inflation scare after WTI surged to $111.54 and Brent to $109.03 on Thursday.
- Treasury yields fell on the week, but Friday’s stronger-than-expected March jobs report pushed yields higher and reduced pressure on the Fed to cut rates.
- The labor market rebounded in March, but markets remain caught between resilient growth data and an energy shock that could keep inflation elevated.
U.S. Stock Performance – Index and Sector Moves
Source: Seeking Alpha
Financial markets improved during the week ending April 3, 2026, but the path was jagged. The main drivers were shifting geopolitical headlines around the Iran war, sharp moves in oil, a bounce in risk taking late in the week, and then a renewed inflation scare after Thursday’s oil spike and Friday’s strong jobs report. The result was a relief rally in equities, but the underlying macro backdrop remains fragile.
The S&P 500 finished at 6,582, up +3.4% from 6,368 (YTD low) a week earlier. The Dow ended at 46,504, up +3.0% from 45,166. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 21,879, up +4.4% from 20,948, and the Russell 2000 ended at 2,530, up about +0.5% from 2,449. Year to date, the S&P 500 is down roughly –3.9%, the Dow –3.1%, and the Nasdaq –6.0%, while the Russell 2000 remained modestly positive at +1.9%.
Leadership rotated away from the energy trade during the rebound. Tech and cyclicals helped the rally as hopes of a potential off-ramp in the war briefly cooled oil prices before their end of week rip higher. The S&P 500 energy sector ended its record 14-week winning streak last week.
Source: Seeking Alpha
S&P 500 Weekly Leaders and Laggards Ranked (best available weekly % change ordering):
- SBA Communications (SBAC) ~+18.9%
- Lumentum (LITE) ~+8.1%
- EchoStar (SATS) ~+6.7%
- Seagate Technology (STX) ~+6.7%
- Intel (INTC) ~+6.7%
Bottom S&P 500 – WTD Laggards (Last Week)
- Tesla (TSLA) ~-5.4%
- GE Aerospace (GE) ~-3.9%
- Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) ~-3.6%
- Carnival (CCL) ~-3.5%
- Biogen (BIIB) ~-3.5%
Intel, AMD, and several tech names rallied, while energy cooled relative to March despite oil staying elevated.
Tesla dropped more than -5% on weak Q1 deliveries. Travel-related stocks dropped on a jump in jet fuel and oil prices.
Source: Seeking Alpha
International/Global
International markets were mixed to higher overall. Europe and Asia rallied sharply on April 1 as hopes rose that the Iran conflict might de-escalate. South Korea’s market jumped +8.4%. This optimism faded later in the week as President Trump’s address offered no clear end point for military action and oil surged again.
Globally, investors continue to monitor the Strait of Hormuz because it remains the clearest transmission channel from geopolitics to inflation, currencies, and global growth expectations.
Volatility & Risk Sentiment
Risk sentiment improved from oversold levels. The VIX ended Thursday around, though it had jumped above 27 intraday as oil spiked after Trump’s address.
The market continues to debate whether the 1q selloff was an energy-driven correction or the beginning of a broader stagflation scare. The rebound last week helps near-term sentiment, but oil breaking higher shows investors remain highly sensitive to inflation expectations and policy repricing.
Bonds, Credit & Interest Rates
Treasury yields finished the holiday-shortened cash week lower. The 2-year Treasury ended April 3 at 3.88%, the 10-year at 4.35%, and the 30-year at 4.91%, compared with 3.88%, 4.44%, and 4.98% on March 27.
The market is balancing two opposing forces: softer growth fears from 1q versus renewed inflation risk from oil. Friday’s payroll number pushed yields slightly higher. The market is trading on a Fed policy dilemma.
Credit conditions look stable to bias wider. Credit investors remain focused on whether higher oil and slower growth translate into a more durable widening cycle.
Economic Data, Monetary Policy & Earnings
The week’s most important economic data last week was the March ISM Manufacturing PMI and the March employment report. ISM manufacturing rose to 52.7, indicating a third straight month of expansion. BLS reported payrolls increased by 178,000 in March and unemployment held near 4.3%. This was a meaningful rebound from February’s weakness and suggested the labor market had not rolled over before the latest oil shock intensified.
The Fed held rates steady at its March 17–18 meeting and said economic activity had been expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained somewhat elevated. Last week’s stronger jobs report reinforced the view that the Fed has room to wait. ADP’s March report had previously shown private employment rising 62,000, a softer figure than Friday’s official payroll report but still consistent cooling, not collapsing.
Commodities, Currencies & Macro Assets
Commodities were again driven by war headlines and supply fears. Last Thursday, WTI oil jumped to $111.54 and Brent to $109.03, after both had eased earlier in the week on de-escalation hopes.
Gold weakened, falling to $4,677/oz as the stronger dollar and resilient yields offset safe-haven demand. This was not a clean “risk-off” week but a rotation-heavy week driven by oil, rates, and positioning.
In currencies, the Dollar Index rose to roughly 100.22, extending the safety-bid, and contrary to the “sell-America” them many strategists have promoted for over a year. A firmer dollar and elevated oil prices tightened global financial conditions.
Bitcoin was around $67,348 and Ethereum around $2,069. Crypto held up better than it did during the late-March washout, but it remained sensitive to rates and general risk appetite.
Liquidity Conditions
Liquidity conditions were mixed but not disorderly. Treasury liquidity remains watching.
Flows & Positioning
The market had entered the week after five straight weekly declines, sentiment plunging, and positioning flipping negative at CTA’s. The weekly strength was consistent with short-covering, relief buying, and catch-up into oversold conditions. However, remember investors, almost every rally starts with the call of “it’s just short covering”.
Energy stocks cooled after an extraordinary YTD and March run, while tech and beaten-down cyclicals led the rebound.
What Matters This Week
Markets will focus on:
- FOMC minutes from the March 17–18 meeting on April 8.
- March CPI on April 10.
- The ISM Services PMI in the coming week.
- Change in rhetoric or military posture around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
- Whether oil stabilizes back toward $100s or makes another run toward the levels some strategists now see as possible in Q2 under a prolonged disruption scenario.
The question remains – does a stronger labor market and seasonal 2q upturn in economic data keep investor and consumer confidence intact long enough for oil to cool, or whether the energy shock begins to dominate inflation expectations again. The Iran war, CPI, Fed minutes, and oil will decide whether this week’s rally extends or fails and retests the lows.
Bottom Line
Markets rallied sharply last week, but the rebound did not resolve the macro. Growth data improved, the labor market looked sturdier than feared, and bond markets are functioning. But oil is elevated, the dollar stronger, and the Fed is still staring at an economy where an energy shock could keep inflation higher just as economic confidence tries to recover.
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