Weekend Update, October 13th, 2025

October 13, 2025

Index, sector & asset Performance

All was quiet, until it wasn’t, Friday morning, post market open on a President Trump tariff tweet.  President Trump, called for an escalation in trade restrictions against China, including 100% tariffs and export controls. On the back of this tweet, the notion of higher geopolitical stress and a continued government shutdown/slowdown, the S&P 500 fell -2.7% on Friday, wiping out earlier gains and ending the week negative.

The S&P 500 finished the week at 6552, down roughly -2.4% on the week, down -2% in October but up +11% YTD. All sectors were lower except the most defensive areas, staples and utilities. The most cyclical and highest growth areas were hurt the worst with energy -4%, consumer discretionary (-3.3%), and materials being hit the worst.  Per ICE Data Services:

Weekly Sector Performance Chart

The consumer staples sector was boosted by a +5.7% jump in the shares of PepsiCo (PEP).  NextEra Energy (NEE) was the best performer in utilities, rising +4.1%.

To dispel fears that this is the start of a bigger move lower, here are the stats on moves from ATH’s (last Thursday) and drops of -2.5% or more per Subu Trade.  Historically, 9 months later, 100% of the time (8 occurrences) the S&P500 was up on average +11.55%.

Graph with title "S&P 500 after falling -2.5% today while making an all-time high yesterday. Source, SubuTrade.com

Economic indicators and Earnings commentary

The Federal government is shutdown. The flow of U.S. data will be sparse. Due to the ongoing government shutdown, the release of major reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau is uncertain. If not resolved by early next week, most federal economic data, including CPI and PPI, will be delayed.

Government shutdowns historically have not been issues for equity markets. The last 50 years, there have been 21 shutdowns. 3 months afterwards, the S&P 500 was up +3% on average, with a 67% hit rate. After 12 months, the S&P 500 was up 90% of the time, with an average return of +12% for all 21 shutdowns.

Interest rates declined sharply on Friday, as investors moved to safety. The 10-year Treasury yield fell toward 4.05% as safe-haven demand picked up.

Earnings: Financials including C, JPM, and WFC will report tomorrow. By October 31st, 68% of S&P 500 companies representing 72% of market cap will have reported results. NVDA, the largest company in the market, is scheduled to report on November 19th.

The Earnings reporting Tsunami is forthcoming per Goldman. Being mid-year seasonality, earnings growth should decelerate relative to last quarter due to smaller currency tailwinds, higher tariff payments, and one-time charges that boosted year/year growth in 2Q.  That said, Wall Street analysts increased their Q3 earnings estimate for the S&P 500 during the quarter for the first time since post Covid 2021.

Table, titled "Percent of S&P 500 market cap reporting by week" Source: Bloomberg

Commodities and Currencies

Oil fell below $60 on fears of global growth.

The US dollar has been rallying, not falling for about 6 weeks and sits near 99.

Gold hit new ATHs at $4065/ounce.

Bitcoin minted a new ATH then sold off hard on delevering and margin calls on Friday trading below $108000.  Ethereum traded below $3500.

Oak Harvest Weekly Stock Talk: A September to Remember: 21 Trading Days makes History

Table of Cumulative Total Returns by Sector, Week Ending 10/10/2025

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.