Join Chris Perras for the 10.9.2020 edition of Stock Talk! Chris Perras: Hey, this is Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Welcome to our Friday Stock Talk podcast: Keeping you Connected to your Money. Last week’s podcast was entitled Waiting, but it’s about to get fun and profitable. This week’s podcast is the third in our waiting segment. It’s entitled Turning the Corner Slowly. Beginning the second half of August, the investment team at Oak Harvest started messaging to our investors and listeners that a correction in stocks was ahead. This was a very normal time in election year that volatility was set to pick up into September. That is exactly what happened. We actually declined almost exactly 10% a little before we had expected. Stock market went down to about 3,200 a few weeks ago. Since then, the S&P 500 has quickly retraced its way back up to 3,400, 3,450 on the S&P. Since late March, our investment team has been discussing with you what we saw as a strong likelihood of a V bottom in both stocks and the economy most likely for the middle of 2020. Against almost all financial commentator opinions, that is exactly what happened. A number of US small businesses and new business applications is exploding. Yes, millions have become unemployed suddenly in the past six months only due to COVID. The response, exactly what you would hope and want to see in capitalism. An explosion in risk-taking and hundreds of thousands of new businesses and new business applications and formations. This is how Americans have behaved for hundreds of years. God willing this is how they’ll behave for the next hundred. For months, we’ve tried to educate our listeners and clients as to why the back half of the fourth quarter of 2020 through 2021 looked like a reacceleration in growth in our economy and a resumption in our secular bull market and stocks. For the past four to six weeks, we’ve discussed at length why we were so…

Join Chris Perras for the 10/2/2020 edition of Stock Talk! Chris: Good morning. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group here in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our October 2nd weekly Stock Talk podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. Before I get started here with the podcast, I wanted to wish the Trump family and other members of the White House staff a speedy and safe recovery from the just-announced virus cases. Our thoughts and prayers here at Oak Harvest go out to anyone who contracts this virus. This podcast is an ongoing part of a multi-week series we started a few weeks ago, and it’s titled Waiting is the Hardest Part. Last week’s segment was waiting, get ready. Today’s segment is entitled Waiting, But It’s About to Get Fun and Profitable. Beginning the second half of August, the investment team at Oak Harvest started messaging to our investors and listeners that a correction in stocks was ahead. This was very normal in an election year that volatility was set to pick up into this September deadline, and going slow was the right strategy. In fact, our August 21, podcast when the S&P 500 was trading near 3,400 for the first time since mid-February, which is pre-epidemic, that podcast was titled Curb Your Enthusiasm, Election Volatility Breeds Opportunity. As we stated last Friday, with the S&P 500 near 3,225. We started to selectively nibble at some of our favorite names. Well, on the back of some rapid short-covering and some optimism over Congress agreeing on added fiscal stimulus in the fourth quarter and in 2021, the S&P 500 quickly retraced its way back up to about 3,365, which is, yes, the underside of the 50-day moving average. How? Well, it’s been a very normal year if you weren’t watching the news every day. This morning, we suddenly failed at the 50-day moving average. Today’s raison du jour is the Trump family and its members of the White House coming down with the virus. In our last…

Join Chris Perras for the 9/25/2020 edition of Stock Talk! Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group here in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money [music] Chris Perras: Good morning. This is Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas, and welcome to our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. This is an ongoing part of a multi-week series titled, Waiting is the Hardest Part. This segment is titled after the 1966 hit, and it was the last song Smokey Robinson wrote for the Temptations, Get Ready. The title today, Get Ready, Why? Starting the second half of August, the investment team at Oak Harvest’s main message to our investors and listeners has been that a correction in stocks was ahead. That this was very normal in an election year. The volatility was set to pick up into September’s dead zone. In fact, our August 21st podcast, when the S&P 500 was trading near 3,400 for the first time since mid-February, pre-pandemic was titled, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Election Volatility Breeds Opportunity. The S&P 500 is now sitting back around 3,225. As we anticipated weeks ago, and we discussed in last week’s podcast, nervous short-term investors and traders started feeling a little more jittery and sold stocks breaking the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average. We are now below August 1st levels as well as the Federal Reserve August 3rd announcement previewing what I call QE5. With stocks having retraced two months of gains, the investment team at Oak Harvest is getting more positive on stocks because they have come down in price and valuations are getting more attractive as the negative noise has been building. This podcast is about the future. It’s about the why we are increasingly optimistic for the fourth quarter and beyond into 2021, while others are now worrying more. I started where every conversation on financial markets since the Great Recession should. Where is…

Join Chris Perras for the 9/18/2020 edition of Stock Talk! Chris Perras: Good morning. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group here in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our September 18th edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. Before I begin with this week’s podcast, I want to send our thoughts and prayers out to anyone living on the Gulf Coast near the Florida Panhandle whose been greatly affected by Hurricane Sally. Having lived through a similar horrific event in Hurricane Harvey three years ago, I personally know the difficult journey back from these types of events. Just wanted to wish everyone out there stay strong, please. This week’s podcast title is taken from the 1981 Tom Petty hit The Waiting. The course goes something like this, and listeners, you don’t have to fast forward through this part, as I’m not going to be singing it. Here it goes, the waiting is the hardest part, every day you see one more card, you take it on faith, you take it to heart, the waiting is the hardest part. The S&P 500 now sits at around 3,350. It’s down month to month from August 21st weekly close about 3,400. It’s down from its short-term closing weekly high on August 28th, which is a Friday payday, which we’ve discussed in the past and that was about 3,500. It’s down from its blow-off daily high on September 2nd at 3,588. We’re at the 50-day moving average, and you can start to feel the traders and short-term investors are starting to feel a little bit panicky, and investors, that is a good thing. This is what we’ve been looking for all year and discussing the past four weeks in our podcasts. We are in the normal pre-election dead zone time period, when traders and short-term investors get itchy trigger fingers. We’re getting too much supply of stock sales in the form of IPOs, SPACs, which are those special purpose acquisition vehicles that are constantly talked…

Join Chris Perras for the 9/11/2020 edition of Stock Talk! Chris Perras: Hi, this is Chris Perras, chief investment officer at Oak harvest financial group in Houston, Texas. Welcome to the 9/11 edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping you Connected to your Money. Before I get into this week’s podcast, I wanted to pause for a moment and let us all remember the lives that were lost, and those that were forever changed 19 years ago during the four coordinated terrorist attacks on America and all Americans. I just want to say, God bless America, As always, prayers are with the families who lost loved ones and those whose lives were forever changed. I take this week’s podcast title, topic, and lessons blatantly and without reservation from one of my favorite movie scenes of all time. It’s from the movie, The Princess Bride. It’s from the character Vizzini. Since the March 23rd rally began in both the stock markets and the economy, we have heard an almost non-stop commentary by financial TV hosts, hedge fund managers, politicians, and numerous other individuals on how what has happened in 2020 is “unprecedented”, particularly the five-month rally and stocks that took us back to new all-time highs with a peak late August, early September. [unintelligible 00:01:20] the tone these individuals had is that it should’ve never happened. That it has been, as Vizzini said, and made famous in multiple scenes in The Princess Bride, inconceivable. As the investment team has tried to lay out since Troy and I made our late March YouTube video, where we discuss the early healing signs in both the economy and in the stock markets, these events were far from inconceivable and unprecedented. There were close to predictable. Thank you, Jerome Powell. Looking back over the last five months, early on, we tried to consistently lay out the case through multiple podcasts and updates, the history of event-driven recessions, such as the one this virus has caused in both the stock markets and the economy. The…

Join Chris Perras for the 9/4/2020 edition of Stock Talk! Chris Perras: Hey, I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group here in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. This week’s podcast is entitled, Seasonal Turbulence and Air Pocket right on cue. The S&P 500 sat this morning around 3,450. The August month-end payday price agnostic index in ETF buying pushed the S&P 500 up to close August at almost exactly 3,500. Earlier this week, early September panic buying by retail investors into technology stocks in front of Tesla and Apple’s stock splits pushed the market up to a short-term peak on Wednesday of around 3,580. Then Thursday came and someone realized what our team at Oak Harvest had been saying for over two weeks on our podcasts, saying, “Relax, take a deep breath. There will be a better buying opportunity in early October to early November.” Listeners can go to our website, oakharvestfg.com, and listen to our second half outlook as well as our August 21st podcast entitled Curb Your Enthusiasm: Election Volatility Breeds Opportunity. Yesterday, what happened? Someone woke up and said, “I’m taking some chips off the table.” The S&P 500 dropped almost 4% intraday on Thursday, down 3.5% to 4% is a lot in one day. However, it’s back to where we were 10 trading days ago. That’s it. As we have stressed for the past few weeks, after five months, the V-bottom rally was long in the tooth. This was right in front of what will likely be a very emotional election period, regardless of who wins in November. This is the third quarter dead zone, no earnings report, just summer macro data which is always a mixed bag, pre-election jitters and noise, lower stock buybacks, insiders getting to sell a stock, lots of supply in stock, and lower demand around. A lot of my hedge fund friends called me earlier this week and could literally only list positive points to the market,…

Join Chris Perras for the 8/28/2020 edition of Stock Talk! Chris Perras: Good morning. I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas. Welcome to the August 28th edition of our weekly Stock Talk Podcast: Keeping You Connected to Your Money. This podcast is entitled Investing Data and Science Trump Emotions. The S&P 500 sits this morning around 3490. We are against all oddsmakers, economists, strategists, and hedge fund managers at a new all-time high in the overall stock market. The 10 for 10 V bottoms that started March 23rd is now 11 for 11. The path here has been a turbulent one since the first quarter top in mid-February. Shortly, in a week or so we will be entering the dead zone or the third quarter. Call it post-Labor Day weekend. Earnings reports will be done, economic data will slow, stock buybacks and money flows into stocks should wane. Because of that, I wanted to focus this week’s podcast on a common and reoccurring theme of our podcast the past two years. That theme and lesson is trying to tame one’s emotions around a market. Both fear when markets are declining and greed when markets are rising, as in now. Currently, our data is flashing a yellow go-slower signal for the first time in five months. What do we see and what gives us some short-term caution over the next few months? First, one of the leading indicators that gave us that thawing sign back in late March is now saying to proceed slowly and a better overall buying opportunity is ahead. This sign is one that is almost entirely caused by big institutional investors, mainly hedge funds’ overenthusiasm in the market. These investors were late to see the economic and stock market fine and are now scrambling to get back in. They have FOMO, that’s Fear Of Missing Out. A good friend of mine, Chris Galippo, who’s Senior Investment Director at Putnam Investment, calls it getting out too far over your skis. There…

Join Chris Perras for the 8/21/2020 edition of Stock Talk! Chris: Good morning. My name is Chris Perras. I am chief investment officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group here in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our weekly Stock Talk podcast: Keeping You Connected to your Money. After taking a few weeks off to go over a second half outlook, I wanted to return to our normal podcast. This podcast is entitled, “Curb your enthusiasm, election volatility breeds opportunities”. This morning the S&P 500 sits around 3385. We are, against most CNBC oddsmakers, economists, strategists, and hedge fund managers, at a new all-time high in the overall stock market. The 10 for 10 V bottoms that started March 23rd is now 11 for 11. The math to 3400 has been a turbulent one since the first quarter top and mid-February. That being said, while the volatility of the path was different than expected, the overall markets are pretty much spot on where we had expected the markets to be when we wrote our first half outlook way back in December of 2019. We won’t recap the first six months of this year again, but you can listen to any and all of our podcasts at oakharvestsfg.com. Shortly, in a week or so we will be entering the dead zone of the third quarter, call it post-labor day weekend. Earnings reports will be done, economic data will slow, stock buybacks and money flows into stocks should wane. The leading indicators we followed for the March 23rd, 24th podcast and YouTube video that Choi and I recorded that was entitled “Healing signs” are now flashing a yellow caution sign. They’re flashing a “curb your enthusiasm” sign after the five-month rally. Over the next two months, focus will turn back to two subjects through early November or maybe even into year end. The first is the COVID virus and it’s ebbs and flows. This one is pretty easy to follow on track. We have real-time data from our friends at Fundstrat, and they have been…

Join Chris Perras for the 8/13/2020 “early edition!” of Stock Talk! Chris: Hi, I’m Chris Perras, Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group here in Houston, Texas. Welcome to the second part of our second-half outlook. It’s pretty amazing that the market sits here at 3400 almost exactly. If you went back and looked at our first half outlook, what you would see is, this is exactly where we thought the market would be now. Now, yes, the path has not been anywhere near what we expected, largely because of the fast downturn in early April caused by COVID. So far, outside of that massive volatility spike, the year is playing out pretty much as you would expect for a Federal Reserve easing as well as an election year. The second half of our outlook, most likely the market spend September through early October, maybe mid-October, consolidating the gains and pulling back during its normally slow period. We will enter in September the dead zone for the third quarter. As of today, with the president trailing in the polls, but starting to pick up ground with oddsmakers, the second half path is likely to mirror that of both the normal seasonal cycle in stocks and the path portrayed by the previously mentioned election year cycle chart. The S&P 500 could once again test its 200-day moving average, which in the next few months will be rising. Right now that 200-day moving average sits around 3,050 but if you fast forward a few months into October, that moving average will likely be upward sloping and approaching 3,100, 3,150 maybe even 3,200. This is all very normal. Even in V-bottom patterns in most years this is what happens late summer due to economic growth slowing. This year, it’s even more likely to be normal as domestic growth concerns continue due to the virus. Should the economy continue to regain its footing throughout the summer and into the third quarter, the odds of the incumbent presidential win by President Trump are likely…

Join Chris Perras for a special Stock Talk, covering the first part of Oak Harvest’s 2nd Half Outlook for 2020! Chris: My name is Chris Perras, I’m Chief Investment Officer at Oak Harvest Financial Group in Houston, Texas. Welcome to our second-half market outlook. This is going to be broken up into two parts given it’s relatively long. The first half will be a recap of what we were saying in the first half and what happened. The second half will be actually the outlook for the second half, although we’ve already alluded to this a number of times in the prior podcast. Listeners, you can go see our prior podcast for the first half, there were issues. We issued one on March 24th. It was a special edition. It was labeled Early Helpful Signs. It was early turning signs in the market. We issued one on 5-8, way before everyone else was talking about day trading. It was labeled the Robinhood Rally. I think we’ve had some really good podcasts throughout this tumultuous second quarter. Look forward to presenting you new material in the second half. Here we go. At the end of the first half of 2020, the S&P 500 stood at 3,050. This was up about 3.7% year over year. It was down 5.5% year-to-date and down about 10% from the February 19th all-time high in the S&P 500. What happened to the first half? Well, the path to 3,050 on the S&P 500 was not quite the one we laid out way back in late December of 2019 in our first half 2020 outlook. Neither the investment team at Oak Harvest nor any other investment advisor could have foreseen the one thing that mattered after late February. Of course, that one thing was the out-of-left-field COVID-19 virus epidemic that caused the fastest and deepest decline in both global economic growth and stock markets ever from February 19th through March 23rd, when the S&P 500 peaked at 3,393 and hit a low of 2,192. Back in late…