Weekly Market Update

Week Ending November 6th, 2026

Key Takeaways Last Week

U.S. equities fell for a fourth straight week with broad weakness in technology as a one-day post-election relief rally gave way to a sharp repricing of AI and data-center risk. The S&P 500 lost -2.68%, its worst week since April 2025, while the Nasdaq Composite fell -3.37%, the Dow -0.94%, and the Russell 2000 -2.05%. Technology and energy led sector losses; lower oil supported bonds and gold, but a stronger-than-expected October jobs report kept the Fed’s inflation fight in focus. 

• Thursday’s -4.4% S&P 500 decline was the largest one-day drop since April 2025. The semiconductor group fell -12.2% that day as investors reassessed AI regulation, data-center permitting, and financing costs, on infrastructure budgets. 

• The midterms produced a Democratic sweep of Congress while the Republican White House retained veto power. Markets first priced less fiscal expansion and a greater chance of Iran-war de-escalation, then focused on of AI costs. 

• WTI crude fell -12.8% to $90.83 and gold rose about 5.0% to $4,070. The 10-year Treasury yield ended 4.86%, down -8 basis points for the week and -50bps in 4 weeks, despite Friday’s payroll surprise. 

• October payrolls increased 165,000 versus roughly 65,000 expected; unemployment eased to 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month over month, and the prior two months were revised up by 84,000. 

• Earnings growth remains strong, 84% of reporting S&P 500 companies beat EPS estimates, while the aggregate surprise was only 2.7%, the weakest since Q4 2022. 

Source: AP, BLS,  FactSet 

U.S. Stock Performance Index and Sector Moves

Source: AP 

Sector returns use the liquid Select Sector SPDR ETFs, Friday close to Friday close

Source: Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance 

Breadth and Participation

Participation was mixed than uniformly weak. Five of eleven sector ETFs advanced, and the Dow outperformed the Nasdaq by 2.43 percentage points. However, leadership was highly selective: technology lost -8.23%, semiconductors fell  -8.0% for the week, and energy dropped -12.0%, while small caps declined -2.05%. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 0.31%, but 315 stocks fell and only 183 advanced.  

Source: AP

International and Global

Source:  Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha 

Volatility and Risk Sentiment

The VIX rose from 19.42 to 25.64, an increase of 32%. It closed at 28.18 after Thursday’s equity route before easing on Friday.  

Source: Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance 

Bonds, Credit, and Interest Rates

Source: US Treasury 

Rates rallied on lower oil and a risk-off bid, then backed up after payrolls.  High yield widened meaningfully from the prior week, while CCC-and-lower OAS reached 1,320 bp. Credit remains calm at the index level but discriminating by quality. 

Economic Data Monetary Policy and Earnings

• Growth: October ISM manufacturing rose to 55.5, with production at 59.0. ISM services eased to 54.5; new orders slowed, but the employment index improved to 51.4.  

• Labor: Payrolls rose 165,000, unemployment declined to 4.1%, participation increased to 61.9%, and hourly earnings rose 0.4% month over month and 3.1% year over year. Initial claims fell to 189,000. 

• Policy: The labor data and still high price surveys preserve the case for another Fed hike. The oil decline argues that near-term headline inflation pressure may ease.  

• Earnings: With 88% of the S&P 500 reported, blended Q3 EPS growth is 31.4% and revenue growth 14.3%. The forward P/E fell to 17.7 from 19.0 at quarter-end, reflecting both earnings growth and the equity selloff. 

Source: ISM 

Consumer Stress Commentary

The labor market is cushioning households, but purchasing power remains pressured. Wages grew 3.1% year over year versus September CPI of 3.7%, gasoline remained above $4 per gallon in many areas, and the average 30-year mortgage rate was about 7.18%. The week’s oil collapse is a prospective relief valve for gasoline and shipping costs, not an immediate reversal of the squeeze.  

Source: BLS

Commodities, Currencies, and Macro Assets

Source:  Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance 

Liquidity Conditions

The weekly liquidity impulse improved. Federal Reserve reserve balances rose $67.6 billion to $2.963 trillion, while the Treasury General Account fell $79.4 billion to $936.2 billion.  

Source: Federal Reserve 

Flows and Positioning

• Global equity funds took in $38.63 billion in the week through November 4, the seventh consecutive inflow and the largest since late September. Global money-market funds attracted $172.71 billion, the most since April 2020. 

• CFTC data through November 3 showed S&P 500 asset managers net long 46.7% of open interest, while leveraged funds were net short 18.7%. 

Source: ICI 

What Matters This Week

Source: Treasury, BLS 

Five tests: (1) CPI confirms that inflation is reaccelerating before the oil drop can help; (2) whether the 10-year holds below roughly 4.90%; (3) whether AI and semi rebounds broadens; (4) whether stress spreads. 

Bottom Line

The week marked a real risk reset. Growth and hiring remain firm, earnings are expanding rapidly, and broad credit is functioning. The vulnerability is the combination of concentrated AI positioning, high borrowing costs, weak low-quality credit, and inflation. Lower oil is the offset. Repair needs calmer yields and evidence that AI spending can translate into cash returns. 

Source: BLS, ISM, FactSet 

Selected Sources and Data Notes

AP market closes  |  FactSet earnings  |  BLS employment  |  BLS JOLTS  |  ISM manufacturing  |  ISM services  |  Federal Reserve H.4.1  |  ICI money-market assets  |  Treasury refunding  |  BLS release calendar

Market levels are Friday close to Friday close unless noted. Sector returns use liquid ETF proxies; credit spreads are latest available through Thursday. Rounded figures are labeled about. Informational only; not personalized investment advice. 

Stock Talk

AI Stocks Weaken as Other Sectors Rise: What’s Changing?

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.