Oak Harvest | Weekly Market Brief

Week ended August 28, 2026 | Published August 30, 2026

Source: LPL Research Weekly Performance, AP News

Key Takeaways Last Week

Large caps recovered, but the market was narrow. The S&P 500 gained roughly 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.8%, almost entirely on Thursday after Nvidia and enterprise-software earnings. Small caps fell -1.5%. Only three S&P sectors rose. Friday’s hawkish Jackson Hole message sharply repriced the front end of the Treasury curve.

• AI demand passed its latest test: Nvidia reported $96.2 billion of revenue (+106% year over year) and guided the next quarter to about $108 billion; the stock jumped +8.7% Thursday before giving back some Friday.
• Software was the strongest sector. Salesforce and CrowdStrike led the S&P 500 after beats and higher outlooks, easing fears that AI will displace established software economics.
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that 3.7% PCE inflation is too high and that short-term rates remain the main tool. September hike odds rose to roughly 58% Friday from 35% a day earlier.
• Consumer evidence weakened: real spending was flat, the saving rate was only 3.0%, confidence fell.
• Oil’s geopolitical premium partially unwound. Oil fell -4.3% for the week, while gold and silver dropped -3% as the dollar and short yields jumped Friday.

U.S. Stock Performance – Index and Sector Moves

Indexes. S&P 500 +0.45% (7,711), Dow +0.49% (53,559), Nasdaq Composite +0.83% (26,402), and Russell 2000 -1.33%. Year to date: S&P 500 +12.6%, Dow +11.4%, Nasdaq +13.6%, Russell 2000 +20.0%.

Sector leaders. Information technology +1.93%, communication services +1.46%, and financials +1.05%. Strong software results and Nvidia’s beat-and-raise supported growth, while higher interest rates helped financials bid.

Sector laggards. Energy -2.26%, healthcare -2.23%, industrials -1.70%, and real estate -1.05%.

Source: Seeking Alpha

S&P 500 Stock Leaders and Laggards

Source: LPL Research

Source: Seeking Alpha

Breadth & Participation

Narrow leadership. Only technology, communication services, and financials rose; eight of eleven sectors declined. Large-cap growth beat small caps by 2%. Weak breadth even though the cap-weighted index advanced.

Participation test. The week’s five strongest S&P 500 names clustered in software, and Thursday supplied essentially all of the index gain.

Source: Seeking Alpha

International / Global

Developed and emerging markets. MSCI EAFE fell 0.57% and MSCI Emerging Markets slipped 0.04%. The STOXX 600 was flat as better European confidence data offset French political concerns. Japan gained on technology and bank strength; South Korea lagged after the Bank of Korea raised rates to address AI-boom inflation.

Source: Seeking Alpha

Volatility & Risk Sentiment

Calm index, higher macro sensitivity. The VIX ended at 14.43, near the low of its 2026 range. Low volatility and tight credit did not say stress. Friday showed that rate expectations can move sharply even when the index barely reacts.

Bonds, Credit & Interest Rates

Curve flattening. The 2-year Treasury jumped to roughly 4.35% on Friday from 4.22% before Warsh’s speech; the 10-year rose to about 4.72% and the 30-year to 5.21%. The long end fell while the front end was higher, flattening.

Total returns and credit. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate gained 0.46%, investment-grade credit 0.62%, and high yield 0.36%. Credit spreads remained in tight ranges and primary issuance was seasonally quiet.

Source: Seeking Alpha

Economic Data, Monetary Policy & Earnings

Inflation and spending. July PCE inflation was 3.7% year over year. Personal income rose 0.4%, nominal spending rose 0.2%, real spending was essentially unchanged, and the saving rate was 3.0%. People are still spending, but with little real-volume momentum and limited savings cushion.

Growth and manufacturing. Second-quarter real GDP was unrevised at a 1.5% annualized pace. July durable-goods orders rose 1.1% (+0.4% excluding transportation), a better manufacturing signal than the consumption data.

Fed. Warsh called the 2% target firm, said broad financial conditions were not restrictive, and emphasized short-term rates as the predominant tool. Markets raised the probability of a September 25 bp hike to roughly 58% from 35% the prior day. The message was hawkish.

Earnings. Nvidia’s $96.2 billion revenue and $108 billion next-quarter guide validated AI infrastructure demand. Salesforce and CrowdStrike showed that enterprise software and cybersecurity budgets are also holding up

Commodities, Currencies & Macro Assets

Energy. Oil fell -4.27% for the week as mediation efforts raised hopes that Strait of Hormuz access could improve. Natural gas rose 4.26%.

Metals, dollar, crypto. Gold fell -3.26% and silver -3.86% for the week. Friday’s hawkish repricing lifted the dollar index to 99.68 and pushed bitcoin back near $77,500.

Source: Seeking Alpha

Liquidity Conditions

Rates remain the transmission channel. The Treasury’s larger long-duration buybacks helped the long end stabilize relative to last week, but Warsh’s speech moved the front end immediately. The key liquidity risk is a renewed rise in real yields combined with heavier post–Labor Day issuance.

What Matters This Week

Market Dashboard: The Four Tests

• Payrolls versus inflation: a weak job print lowers hike odds only if wages and services inflation slow.
• Breadth: do equal-weight and small caps can participate after last week’s large-cap/software concentration.
• Rates: 2-year Treasury near 4.35% and 30-year near 5.20% are the key policy and duration markers.
• Oil and the dollar: renewed oil strength or a sustained dollar breakout would tighten financial conditions. outlook.

Bottom Line

The market received two pieces of good news and one important constraint. Nvidia confirmed that AI infrastructure demand remains powerful, and enterprise-software earnings showed that AI is also supporting application and security spending. However, Warsh made clear that 3.7% inflation leaves the Fed willing to tighten, and the front end believed him. Breadth was narrow, small caps weak, and the labor report due Friday.  The next advance needs either broader earnings or a benign combination of jobs and inflation.

Stock Talk

The AI Boom is moving, are we living in a Material World?

Selected Sources

LPL Research weekly performance  |  Associated Press index close  |  Federal Reserve: Warsh speech  |  BEA: July income, spending, PCE  |  BEA: Q2 GDP second estimate

Census: July durable goods  |  BLS: 2026 release schedule  |  Nvidia Q2 results  |  Conference Board confidence  |  ICI ETF issuance

Information only. This brief is not personalized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The preceding discussion is for informational purposes only. Investing involves risk and no reference to any security listed above should be considered a buy or sell recommendation. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.