Up, Down, Up, Down…

Up, down whipsawing and waiting: summer “stall” continues. We are in the “summer stall” for the stock market. In our view, it started “Tax Day,” April 16.

Earnings season has ended, and positive reports were the rule, not the exception — as expected. In our view, the markets would not be close to new all-time-highs had it not been so. We also believe there will be more positive surprises ahead in H1 2021 and H2 2022, on the back of productivity gains.

Equities up, downup down pogostick

Equity markets are up this morning, with S&P 500 futures up about 0.5% to start their week. Treasury yields are up, with the 10-year up 4 bps to 1.62%, as oil prices are pushing new highs. WTI is up almost 3% to above $68 for the first time since late 2018 ahead of today’s OPEC+ meeting.

Global equities rebounded across the board last week. The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, led by telecom and consumer discretionary, while utilities lagged. Solid bank earning pushed the financials up. Only utilities were down last week. Year-to-date, all sectors are now higher — with six sporting double-digit gains led by energy, REITs and financials.

Looking ahead: up, down

Since OHFG expects a very strong second half of the year, the investment team continues to look for opportunities to buy our portfolio names at cheaper prices. We expect volatility in the S&P 500 to continue in the second quarter, perhaps resulting in a pullback reaching around 3985–4015.


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