Oak Harvest: Market Update – Feb 18, 2019

By Chris Perras, CIO

Equity markets closed out last week at SP500 2775, a recovery high from the Christmas Eve SP500 2350 lows. Positive optimism on a US/China trade deal was the convenient financial press excuse, while OHFG attributes most of the move to 1) continued Federal Reserve dovish talk on interest rates lowering market volatility to 15, and 2) Friday February 15th “Payday” passive, price agnostic, inflows into equity markets.  The S&P 500 rose 2.5% for the week, led by energy and bank stocks, leaving the index up more than 10% on the year (A great headline, but up only 3% since the end of 2017).

Another Government shutdown was averted last week as President Trump chose not to veto Congress and signed their joint proposal with less than his $5 billion border wall funding demand. The President subsequently declared a national emergency in order to secure additional border wall funding. This topic will be litigated in the courts for months if not longer.  For OHFG views on how politics can affect stock prices, please listen to our new five-part series entitled, “The Politics of Stocks”, part one of which can be found on our weekly audio email podcasts and at https://Oakharvestfg.com/investment-stock-talk/.

What did get shut down last week was Amazon’s plan for a New York City based second headquarters.  Facing stiff opposition from progressive government officials and the media, Jeff Bezos pulled the plug on an expansion into Long Island that would have eventually created 25,000 new jobs.  Regardless of headquarters news, Amazon’s lead in online merchandising remains second to none with only Walmart being a true current domestic threat.

Sources for data include Bloomberg, Investor’s Business Daily, and other publicly available news sources. Weekly market updates contain general information and the views of Oak Harvest Investment Services and are current as of the date of posting. Content should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Views and opinions may change based on new information or analysis. In addition, Oak Harvest makes no assurance as to the accuracy of any forecast made. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves the risk of loss.